Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Ian Brown]

Do we have any idea who he works for? I know he said "multinational". Why is it a secret? Is this the same Stewart Rampling? (http://www.countrysideconsultants.co.uk/profile.htm)

 

Yes it is.

[pdjakow]

I think that lower solar activity has nothing to do with cold winters. Very cold months as feb 1956 or 1962/3 winter came near highest solar activity peak in 20th century. 

In Poland we have warmer winters at begining of 20th century, when solar activity was weak.

 

Here is my reconstruction of monthly temperature anomalies after 1825 for Poland area:

http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/poltemp.txt

 

 

Winter anomalies

http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/zima.png

 

Annual:

http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/rok.png

[Methuselah]

I think that lower solar activity has nothing to do with cold winters. Very cold months as feb 1956 or 1962/3 winter came near highest solar activity peak in 20th century. 

In Poland we have warmer winters at begining of 20th century, when solar activity was weak.

 

Here is my reconstruction of monthly temperature anomalies after 1825 for Poland area:

http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/poltemp.txt

 

 

Winter anomalies

http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/zima.png

 

Annual:

http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/rok.png

Welcome to NW, pdjakow...Please can you pop your location into your profile?

[pdjakow]

Profile updated

[cheeky_monkey]

First big winter storm is forecast for the weekend and could dump between 20-25cm of snow by Sunday night...here Autumn is now over..i suspect the snow that falls will now be on the ground until April.

[Summer Sun]

 What is GP's Twitter name? Cant find it.

 

He was talking about Joe Bas`tardi not GP

[pdjakow]

First big winter storm is forecast for the weekend and could dump between 20-25cm of snow by Sunday night...here Autumn is now over..i suspect the snow that falls will now be on the ground until April.

 

Temperature anomalies over Europe (from GFS) are very interesting. Here is forecast for next 8 days (GFS init today, 06UTC)

 

 

(1981-2010 base period, from CFSR reanalysis)

 

Indeed there is cooler conditions expected in northern parts of UK, but there is huge positive anomaly over Europe with temperatures 6 deg C above normals in some parts. In fact average temperature for this period is higher in eastern Belarus than in northern UK

[Summer Sun]

The Brazilian model for November has updated it continues to signal an above average winter for temps and around average for rain

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Indeed- those anomaly maps would probably point to a mild wet December, a cold and possibly snowy January, and then a fairly mild and dry February, so something for almost everybody.  The range of years, though, suggests that the relationship is quite weak.

 

Agreed. It could be that when ENSO is weak/neutral, other factors begin to dominate our weather to a much greater extent.

 

Narrowing it further to a combination of neutral ENSO and +ve QBO gives this for DJF

 

Those combination of years produce a winter CET average of 3.8C 

[smithyweather]

Temperature anomalies over Europe (from GFS) are very interesting. Here is forecast for next 8 days (GFS init today, 06UTC)

(1981-2010 base period, from CFSR reanalysis)

Indeed there is cooler conditions expected in northern parts of UK, but there is huge positive anomaly over Europe with temperatures 6 deg C above normals in some parts. In fact average temperature for this period is higher in eastern Belarus than in northern UK

Yes everyone is saying its mild but for past two days we've had single figure maxes. Forecast for next five days does not exceed 9c. With a max of 6c tomorrow and 0c min tonight. So below average actually.

[Buriedundersnow]

Temperature anomalies over Europe (from GFS) are very interesting. Here is forecast for next 8 days (GFS init today, 06UTC)

 

 

(1981-2010 base period, from CFSR reanalysis)

 

Indeed there is cooler conditions expected in northern parts of UK, but there is huge positive anomaly over Europe with temperatures 6 deg C above normals in some parts. In fact average temperature for this period is higher in eastern Belarus than in northern UK

 

 

yes looks warm but our MET OFFICE were calling for the 3 month period nov/dec/jan to slighty above average temps wise and also said that one mild month could be the cause of the temps being slightly above average for the period.

 

I am hoping November will be the mild one and the others will be cooler so that chart actually looks ok to me.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yes everyone is saying its mild but for past two days we've had single figure maxes. Forecast for next five days does not exceed 9c. With a max of 6c tomorrow and 0c min tonight. So below average actually.

 

The map show below average temeratures for much of Ireland, smithyweather. It would appear to be in agreement with you!

[pdjakow]

If anyone is interested:

 

http://meteomodel.pl/gfsanom.php

 

(Anomaly forecast for 8 days, updated as GFS)

[Catacol]

He was talking about Joe Bas`tardi not GP

Ah - thanks. Misunderstood.; So GP has shut up shop completely in terms of public statements. :-(

[Radiating Dendrite]

Ah - thanks. Misunderstood.; So GP has shut up shop completely in terms of public statements. :-(

 

Yes.

 

To be honest I am sure he could have just created a new profile and carried on participating on netweather if he had wanted - obviously not issuing forecasts etc but carrying on joining in with the banter and a few one liners

[draztik]

Taking a look at the latest 10 day chunks from the CFS for November and December. Pressure/Temperature/Precipitation

November

December

Edited November 1, 2013 by draztik

[pdjakow]

@draztik

 

Some strange things happens on Black Sea  However nice maps

[Interitus]

Agreed. It could be that when ENSO is weak/neutral, other factors begin to dominate our weather to a much greater extent.

 

Narrowing it further to a combination of neutral ENSO and +ve QBO gives this for DJF

 

 

Those combination of years produce a winter CET average of 3.8C 

 

Interesting but with regards to temperatures is there any forecasting skill?

From Cohen & Jones 2011 -

Even exact knowledge of the winter Niño 3.4 index provides no forecast skill for the Eastern US and virtually all of Eurasia

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by Interitus

[MPG]

Tripole Forming?

 

[pdjakow]

Tripole Forming?

 

 

 

What is that mean?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting but with regards to temperatures is there any forecasting skill?

From Cohen & Jones 2011 -

Even exact knowledge of the winter Niño 3.4 index provides no forecast skill for the Eastern US and virtually all of Eurasia

 

AC ENSO DJF T.jpg

 

I don't think the temperature values are of much use, I only really posted them for interest's sake. Temperature forecasts are much tougher in general than getting the broad pattern I find.

Does that paper mention why they only tried correlation from 1997? Seems there's plenty more data than that.

[forecaster]

I don't think the temperature values are of much use, I only really posted them for interest's sake. Temperature forecasts are much tougher in general than getting the broad pattern I find.

Does that paper mention why they only tried correlation from 1997? Seems there's plenty more data than that.

 

Just a very quick example....correlating MEI against 1000mb temperature does not detect any strong relationships in our part of the world.

 

Similar story for 500hPa heights:

 

[forecaster]

What is that mean?

 

 

That type of pattern was identified as a key driver in the 2010 winter. There are some similarities with the current pattern, but also some differences. Nothing ever quite fits the conceptual model perfectly. 

[Interitus]

I don't think the temperature values are of much use, I only really posted them for interest's sake. Temperature forecasts are much tougher in general than getting the broad pattern I find.

Does that paper mention why they only tried correlation from 1997? Seems there's plenty more data than that.

 

The data from 1997 onwards is daily data from the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), but they also used NOAA weekly SCE data (like Rutgers) from 1973, but this has a lower correlation for that particular research. Of course some doubt was cast on the accuracy of this SCE data recently. 

[pdjakow]

 

That type of pattern was identified as a key driver in the 2010 winter. There are some similarities with the current pattern, but also some differences. Nothing ever quite fits the conceptual model perfectly. 

 

 

Last years, 30 oct

 

 

 

 

Edit:

 

2009-10-30:

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by pdjakow