Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Barry12]

Model roller coaster also said Winter was over in Nov 2009!

[Catacol]

Agree we cant know for sure John but we used to wait for GP's winter forecast with baited breath, how many times out of ten did he

get it right? (baring in mind 50% being a guesscast and 60% a decent effort if your talking seasonally), I would say his strike rate was above that overall and nearer to 80% with winter forecasting.

 

Yes - I alluded to this on the strat thread. I think it is a great shame that the Met do not put time and effort into interpretative long range forecasting for the public bearing in mind some like GP were able to do it as amateurs with decent accuracy... accuracy enough to get GP a job!

[Catacol]

And finally, before I go to bed, here is the transient November atlantic ridge that IB mentioned earlier. It is a very long way out... but it has been present in the 06, 12 and 18z GFS today so is recurrent enough to see as possible. Gav P also highlighted several models going for this change last week.

 

 

 

More ridging trying to make ground into the arctic from Kamchatka too. The charts I am looking at do not spell automatic zonality to me through November despite what the MetO update is saying. However they are the pros... and to be fair they usually get the pattern right up to about 30 days. So perhaps it will indeed by short lived. However not quite the guaranteed zonal for 2/3 of November touted by VolderBrown in the previous winter thread... ;-P

Edited November 1, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Catacol]

Oh... I couldnt resist a final final look at the 18z CFS - always game for a laugh. CFS also sees HP growing in second half of November, though a few days later than GFS. However - for those that see winter as starting on 1st Dec how would this be for a start? 

 

 

 

Slider low under a HP moving towards Scandy. Not bad. 

 

Now to bed.

[draztik]

Apologies if this has already been posted here today or elsewhere on NW, but accuweather have published their 2013/14 winter forecast for Europe.

"Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February... "

They suggest the UK will see around normal temperatures, due to unsettled & stormy conditions..."The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February".

"Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles,"

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

Edited November 1, 2013 by draztik

[syed2878]

it's interesting how many lrf going for avrage to just above winter for europ and u.k including rjs. As i have said before i have a fieling that this winter could be closer to w2011-2012. I hope it doesn't turn out that way and if it does then oh well it's the weather and it will do what it will do.

[Weather-history]

Stewart Rampling - but he is one in a million although I stand by chiono as the next best - none of those have let me down yet.

He was good but even he isn't infallible. Remember summer 2011 and shades of 1976 forecast? It was infact the coolest summer for over 2 decades.

[Ian Brown]

He was good but even he isn't infallible. Remember summer 2011 and shades of 1976 forecast? It was infact the coolest summer for over 2 decades.

And of course he did go for the Easterly last December that was scuppered in dramatic fashion, though of course his knowledge will be greatly missed.

 

Interesting to see the Accu forecast and probably explains why there haven't been any reported hyperbole from Joe B thus far. They seem to be going for HP over Western Europe with the occasional dig of cold air going on the SE flank of the High to the Baltics etc... though of course it's hard to sum up winter in one chart - unless it's 88/89 ! 

[Mark Neal.]

And of course he did go for the Easterly last December that was scuppered in dramatic fashion, though of course his knowledge will be greatly missed.Interesting to see the Accu forecast and probably explains why there haven't been any reported hyperbole from Joe B thus far. They seem to be going for HP over Western Europe with the occasional dig of cold air going on the SE flank of the High to the Baltics etc... though of course it's hard to sum up winter in one chart - unless it's 88/89 !

He did tweet a few weeks back saying he thought signals and current proceedings were akin to 2009, talking about Europe going in the freezer. That said he usually says that every year!

[tight isobar]

Indeed it is v,hard to sum up our most complex season(winter) and as again to try to go for exact predict on exact location, as accu,have is at least....sticking your neck on the line!!!!.

[dallas]

GP no longer on Netweather then?

[Rollo]

GP no longer on Netweather then?

No regrettably not,he has gone to a large professional Weather company. I feel any criticism of him to be totally unfounded as he did meet with great success and developed a huge following,we are less knowledgeable due to his departure. Chio is doing his best to fill the void and doing a good job but as I said he is certainly a big miss.

[dallas]

No regrettably not,he has gone to a large professional Weather company. I feel any criticism of him to be totally unfounded as he did meet with great success and developed a huge following,we are less knowledgeable due to his departure. Chio is doing his best to fill the void and doing a good job but as I said he is certainly a big miss.

Cheers, agree he will bve missed, used to love reading his posts

[forecaster]

No regrettably not,he has gone to a large professional Weather company. I feel any criticism of him to be totally unfounded as he did meet with great success and developed a huge following,we are less knowledgeable due to his departure. Chio is doing his best to fill the void and doing a good job but as I said he is certainly a big miss.

 

Do we have any idea who he works for? I know he said "multinational". Why is it a secret? Is this the same Stewart Rampling? (http://www.countrysideconsultants.co.uk/profile.htm)

[Summer Sun]

Do we have any idea who he works for? I know he said "multinational". Why is it a secret? Is this the same Stewart Rampling? (http://www.countrysideconsultants.co.uk/profile.htm)

 

No Idea I've come across that link before same name but I have no idea if its the same guy

[shedhead]

boywonder, on 31 Oct 2013 - 19:07, said:

Many locations in Highlands Below Freezing Point last night.

 

Aboyne -1.8 C.

Drumnadrochit -1.5 C.

Baltasound -0.6

 

 

 

Posted Yesterday, 19:32

johnholmes, on 31 Oct 2013 - 19:21, said:

I never realised Baltasound was in the Highlands!

 

 

 

Sorry just moved from Pakistan to Uk so i will commit an error here and there..

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing like making a new member feel welcome and comfortable eh?

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

quite why you need to post twice shed when you must be fully aware I apologised to the poster. 

never mind shed I know you are a softy underneath!

[Catacol]

He did tweet a few weeks back saying he thought signals and current proceedings were akin to 2009, talking about Europe going in the freezer.That said he usually says that every year!

 What is GP's Twitter name? Cant find it.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[shedhead]

Apols JH....I didn't know that and to be honest I got myself in a bit of a pickle with the post.  Just think it's important to make as many members as possible feel they can post, that way we might just start to see some genuine balance, especially in the Winter MOD.

[johnholmes]

Apols JH....I didn't know that and to be honest I got myself in a bit of a pickle with the post.  Just think it's important to make as many members as possible feel they can post, that way we might just start to see some genuine balance, especially in the Winter MOD.

 

no problems mate-I agree we do need to try and make folk welcome

[Weather-history]

and developed a huge following,.

And that was part of the problem for me. Some people hung on his word and treated it almost as sacrosanct and a given. It wasn't his fault but I felt some people did see him as though he was a weather god and what he spoke was gospel.

[UV-RAY]

And that was part of the problem for me. Some people hung on his word and treated it almost as sacrosanct and a given. It wasn't his fault but I felt some people did see him as though he was a weather god and what he spoke was gospel.

I mentioned this myself last winter Wh, it was though some felt he had a crystal ball and could foretell the weather for that season. Nothing against GP as I've nothing but admiration for the way he use to go into great detail, but he issued a forecast thats all and not a set in stone cast.

[summer blizzard]

And that was part of the problem for me. Some people hung on his word and treated it almost as sacrosanct and a given.It wasn't his fault but I felt some people did see him as though he was a weather god and what he spoke was gospel.

 

I imagine these are the same people who won't accept that it will rain (insert direction of the insert location).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seeing as the forecast is for ENSO neutral conditions during the Winter, I made a composite map based on all ENSO neutral Winters since 1950 (by using years with October to February Nino 3.4 average anomaly between -0.5 and +0.5). 

 

 

For the individual winter months

 

........ ........December................. ..................January............... ...........................  February

 

 

It is of course, just one factor among many, but interesting nonetheless.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed- those anomaly maps would probably point to a mild wet December, a cold and possibly snowy January, and then a fairly mild and dry February, so something for almost everybody.  The range of years, though, suggests that the relationship is quite weak.