Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[feb1991blizzard]

My wife has just written off the car...so it's all relative!!

 

Is the car ok mate? have you insurance?

[Yarmy]

Is the car ok mate? have you insurance?

 

Priorities.

[Don]

Is this a wind up??? Have I fallen asleep and woken up in mid February? Are we not still in the middle of autumn?The models are starting to look better in FI for a cool down towards mid month and then who knows progressively colder as we head in to the end of AUTUMN and colder still as we head in to proper WINTER.... "Winter is over" comments this early do my head in can you save them for March please

 

My post was a joke.  Not Winter is over!!

Edited October 31, 2013 by Don

[Barry12]

Winter is over because the sun is too warm.

[shedhead]

Yes tks mate, tho I'm pretty sure the bridge she drove into won't have. Would be surprised if they don't write it off, my missus never does things by halves, but at least it's only the car and her pride that are damaged...

Priorities.

Obviously....

[Buriedundersnow]

saw these posted on twitter so thought I would drop them in its something to do with laying snow on Christmas

 

[Ian Brown]

The METO are often cautious with their updates, as the last thing they want is to be caught out in winter and I feel that their probably even more confident of a mild Nov-Jan period than the wording suggests.

 

Certainly when you consider more recent years with this QBO set-up, then +ve NAO is strongly favoured though of course we have seen a change in recent winters. I certainly get the feeling that HLB will be hard to achieve in this period and perhaps some are taking some of the synoptics that we have had in recent winters as a given to happen again. It's only a few years ago that it was being widely discussed on the forum that stable HLB in winter was a thing of the past.

[feb1991blizzard]

The METO are often cautious with their updates, as the last thing they want is to be caught out in winter and I feel that their probably even more confident of a mild Nov-Jan period than the wording suggests.

 

Certainly when you consider more recent years with this QBO set-up, then +ve NAO is strongly favoured though of course we have seen a change in recent winters. I certainly get the feeling that HLB will be hard to achieve in this period and perhaps some are taking some of the synoptics that we have had in recent winters as a given to happen again. It's only a few years ago that it was being widely discussed on the forum that stable HLB in winter was a thing of the past.

 

 

Do you reckon we are shafted this year then Ian?, I think the first half will be a struggle but the second half (with the aid of an SSW) will be better.

[Ian Brown]

Do you reckon we are shafted this year then Ian?, I think the first half will be a struggle but the second half (with the aid of an SSW) will be better.

I think it will be tough early on, and the only possible break from the zonality could be a mid-latitude High later in November that soon gets flattened as the jet piles back in. There could be an SSW, we don't know, but with the QBO set-up that we will have, sometimes the PV never leaves the Greenland/Iceland area despite other factors becoming favourable. and we know that that is the killer area for us.

[boywonder]

Many locations in Highlands Below Freezing Point last night.

 

Aboyne -1.8 C.

Drumnadrochit -1.5 C.

Baltasound -0.6

[feb1991blizzard]

I think it will be tough early on, and the only possible break from the zonality could be a mid-latitude High later in November that soon gets flattened as the jet piles back in. There could be an SSW, we don't know, but with the QBO set-up that we will have, sometimes the PV never leaves the Greenland/Iceland area despite other factors becoming favourable. and we know that that is the killer area for us.

 

Yes the killer deffo but I do think QBO+ will possibly be negated by the higher than average solar activity, I believe high solar activity can actually benefit us during these circumstances?

[johnholmes]

Many locations in Highlands Below Freezing Point last night.

 

Aboyne -1.8 C.

Drumnadrochit -1.5 C.

Baltasound -0.6

 

I never realised Baltasound was in the Highlands!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll just reiterate that there's been cold winters in +QBO years

[Buriedundersnow]

Many locations in Highlands Below Freezing Point last night.

 

Aboyne -1.8 C.

Drumnadrochit -1.5 C.

Baltasound -0.6

 

 

where u from BOYWONDER go to top right of screen and click on your name go to profile and enter location then if you have any questions in the future or talk about what weather you are seeing we will know where you are on about

[feb1991blizzard]

I'll just reiterate that there's been cold winters in +QBO years

 

Indeed Gavin P isn't convinced by using the QBO as a predictive teleconnection.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed Gavin P isn't convinced by using the QBO as a predictive teleconnection.

 

Nor am I. However Ian Brown seems to be following the +QBO = mild winter formula. However a+b doesn't always = c

 

Also I'm sure he knows this. But let's not get facts in the way of a good old mild ramp eh?!

Edited October 31, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Nor am I. However Ian Brown seems to be following the +QBO = mild winter formula. However a+b doesn't always = c

 

Also I'm sure he knows this.

 

I still stand by my prediction made on 19th Oct, less sure about the cold snap late Nov now but don't think I am predicting a mild winter overall, Dec nowhere near as bad as Dec 2011 but still above average and the change to colder conditions earlier with February very cold - no real change from my signature prediction.

Edited October 31, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Buriedundersnow]

I'll just reiterate that there's been cold winters in +QBO years

 

 

even when we say cold or warm winters we don't even need a cold winter to get decent snow as the last few winters we have seen snow they haven't overall been that cold

[boywonder]

I never realised Baltasound was in the Highlands!

Sorry just moved from Pakistan to Uk so i will commit an error here and there..

Edited October 31, 2013 by boywonder

[Weather-history]

QBOs, SSTs, solar activity, volcanic activity, ice coverage, El Niño/La Nina, stratospheric conditions....................

If you can deduce what will happen this winter from all that, good luck......

[Cheshire Freeze]

The METO are often cautious with their updates, as the last thing they want is to be caught out in winter and I feel that their probably even more confident of a mild Nov-Jan period than the wording suggests.

 

Certainly when you consider more recent years with this QBO set-up, then +ve NAO is strongly favoured though of course we have seen a change in recent winters. I certainly get the feeling that HLB will be hard to achieve in this period and perhaps some are taking some of the synoptics that we have had in recent winters as a given to happen again. It's only a few years ago that it was being widely discussed on the forum that stable HLB in winter was a thing of the past.

 

And if the GLOSEA model predicts wintry Armageddon next update do you think that the Metoffice would continue the same mild theme? No, they'll assess the situation on the model output at hand. As far as I know, the Metoffice always suggest probabilities of a certain scenario occurring, there's nothing new about that so I don't really follow your point about them being 'secretly confident'.

 

Unless you're the chief forecaster himself?

Edited October 31, 2013 by CreweCold

[Barry12]

I still stand by my prediction made on 19th Oct, less sure about the cold snap late Nov now but don't think I am predicting a mild winter overall, Dec nowhere near as bad as Dec 2011 but still above average and the change to colder conditions earlier with February very cold - no real change from my signature prediction.

 

What are you basing the very cold February on?

[feb1991blizzard]

QBOs, SSTs, solar activity, volcanic activity, ice coverage, El Niño/La Nina, stratospheric conditions....................If you can deduce what will happen this winter from all that, good luck......

 

Stewart Rampling - but he is one in a million although I stand by chiono as the next best - none of those have let me down yet.

[feb1991blizzard]

What are you basing the very cold February on?

 

 

SSW jan - similar to 09 but earlier and with more potent benefits.

 

Last year had loads more potential than this but under performed relative to its teleconnective signals, this year has less potential but only needs to perform to its potential based on second half analogues to deliver - we cannot be unlucky 2 years running!

Edited October 31, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

SSW jan - similar to 09 but earlier and with more potent benefits.

So, in other words, you're guessing?