Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Yarmy]

ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

 

Honestly, if it were possible to forecast the UK's winter by just looking at solar activity in October then long range forecasting would be an absolute doddle. 

[summer blizzard]

Amazingly the GFS did used to be king, before 2007 it was top dog.

[Summer Sun]

Amazingly the GFS did used to be king, before 2007 it was top dog.

 

Once GFS gets updated it could become more reliable again

[Buriedundersnow]

That upgrade is going to be a rather significant one too, funded in the aftermath of the total failure of the GFS to deal with Sandy.

 

The horizontal grid is getting updated globally from 27km to 15km (to match the ECMWF) and the NOAA have also spent a fair bit of money hiring in new atmospheric scientists to alter the methodology of data collection and input to make it far more similar to the ECMWF too. They also project that overall data processing will trump that of the ECMWF too, with an estimated 2600 teraflops vs (they project) around ~2150 teraflops at the ECMWF.

 

I have seen a number of job listings recently at the ECMWF which makes me suspect they might be about to up their own game in response too. We could be about to enter a really golden age for computer forecasting...I wonder what the UKMO plans are amongst all this with new funding having been secured...

 

SK

 

 

i'm looking forward to these going up and hopefully they will help to improve model accuracy

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYCnMTchr8A

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAwe4LD7E-M#t=37

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjlH2HileKg#t=91

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HibP-WPib5M#t=0

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0umIwVDIBuw#t=0

 

on my screen it only showing one video the links are for the new meteosat sattelites that will work in conjunction with the goes-r systems going up

 

 

heres one that explains the goes-r a little better

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGulVhzV1lY

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dnNpBTFTt8

Edited October 31, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Don]

ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

 

Never mind folks Winter 2014/15 WILL be the one!!

[joggs]

sorry but his pronouncements, note I do not say forecast, get wilder and wilder. It amazes me to think anyone will pay money for anything from him. If I could be bothered I would apply the same rigorous checking to his 'work' as I have done previously to the 500mb anomaly charts!I doubt the result would even approach 30% for accuracy, about the same I think as if you predict this winter will be the same as last winter for evermore.

I think your been kind there John,30% lol.

[simshady]

ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

 

It'll be a brave man who writes off the winter before it's even started.

[smithyweather]

ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

Thats so naive its unbelievable. 

[Yarmy]

Got that strange deja vu feeling:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57495-winter-autumn-2009-10-part-4/#entry1611862

 

And what a disappointment 09/10 turned out to me. (Only joking, Mr Rollercoaster )

[John Badrick]

Never mind folks Winter 2014/15 WILL be the one!!

Is this a wind up??? Have I fallen asleep and woken up in mid February? Are we not still in the middle of autumn?The models are starting to look better in FI for a cool down towards mid month and then who knows progressively colder as we head in to the end of AUTUMN and colder still as we head in to proper WINTER.... "Winter is over" comments this early do my head in can you save them for March please

[Radiating Dendrite]

Laughing at those already writing winter off!

 

Was the start of November 2010 not mild and wet...............then came a -0.7c December!

 

As for the Solar Activity argument, if it was easy then we would have accurate LRFs every year!

Edited October 31, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[Jimmyh]

has anyone seen TEITS recently, is about time he came out of hibernation. BFTP have you seen your old sparring partner recently????

[cheese]

Laughing at those already writing winter off!

 

Was the start of November 2010 not mild and wet...............then came a -0.7c December!

 

As for the Solar Activity argument, if it was easy then we would have accurate LRFs every year!

Some record high Nov temps in 2010 for a few locations I believe.. reached 17.4C here on the 4th.. 6 days later, the temperature fell to -1.5C. At the end of the month, we had a low of -12C, possibly a record for us in November.

[Radiating Dendrite]

has anyone seen TEITS recently, is about time he came out of hibernation. BFTP have you seen your old sparring partner recently????

 

Last logged on 2nd October.

 

I am sure he will be back on soon once we have interesting cold weather to talk about!

 

We need him to protect us from the dark lord.............VolderBrown

[Frank Trough]

Some record high Nov temps in 2010 for a few locations I believe.. reached 17.4C here on the 4th.. 6 days later, the temperature fell to -1.5C. At the end of the month, we had a low of -12C, possibly a record for us in November.

 

There must have been a few mild and wet Novembers that weren't followed by cold December a la 2010, though? December 2010 was exceptional as well - statistically at least it's pretty unlikely this December will run it close. 

[Buriedundersnow]

There must have been a few mild and wet Novembers that weren't followed by cold December a la 2010, though? December 2010 was exceptional as well - statistically at least it's pretty unlikely this December will run it close. 

 

2009 and 2010 we were pretty much zonal then straight in the freezer I posted the charts in either this thread or towards the end of the old thread

[Buriedundersnow]

someone tell me how to link old posts to here

[Yarmy]

someone tell me how to link old posts to here

 

Find the post, right click on the number in the top right corner and Copy Link or whatever. Or open it in a new tab and copy the url from the address bar.

[Buriedundersnow]

hope this works

 

2010

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/?p=2810458

 

2009

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/?p=2810540

[Barry12]

it seems nino is packing a punch,also losing the possible neg NAO and the jet also not playing ball.i cant for no longer be optimistic i tried even if we still a few weeks from winter.its all going very wrong indeed id say a certain someone may well be spot on.as for joe b lrf and others being bias towards cold,my opion is that at the time things suggested it could be cold.but now it would seem this outcome is decreasing rapidly and the met office lrf could well be spot on,i also expect them to go for above average winter in both temps and rainfall.we have seen this happen in many winters so 2008/09 was just a blip with the right setup,this year not a single cold spell and weeks drifting by with more and more bad news.sorry peeps but i see nothing to be excited about even solar activity is not convincing me now.

 

You think Mr rollercoster would learn his lesson, obviously not.

[Summer Sun]

has anyone seen TEITS recently, is about time he came out of hibernation. BFTP have you seen your old sparring partner recently????

 

Last posted on September 20th not been on the forum since October 3rd

[shedhead]

Well imho we've seen many winters recently that have promised so much but ultimately delivered so little, so hopefully this one will prove to be the complete opposite... a la Summer 2013

[johnholmes]

ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

another daft post if I may so, even though you do explain why you feel you can write winter off. Have there been any winters that delivered deep cold in spite of the sun? I give up with folk and pronouncements about winter before we are in to November, be it another 1947/62-63 or the mildest winter for x years.

Give over-no one knows and no one can tell us with any degree of confidence. We can look at various parameters that may suggest one thing or another but until late November the probability of any forecast for winter being correct is chance nothing more.

[UV-RAY]

ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

Lol, I've written off summer 2014 because the CFS charts are showing HLB though out the summer months.

[shedhead]

My wife has just written off the car...so it's all relative!!