Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Barry12]

This is 2009 allover again to me... surely it cant happen ; can it?

 

Of course it can happen, but so can a 1962/63 winter.

Ahhh, but it has to be non stop until April!!

 

BFTP

 

That would be difficult to be honest, maybe he thinks the polar vortex will die?

[MPG]

This is 2009 allover again to me... surely it cant happen ; can it?

I remember in 2009, TEITS was following this closely (PV Split) and the winter proved interesting.

 

Regard TEITS, havent seen him yet, must be hibernating still!

[Barry12]

Comparison on this day to 2010 and 2009.

 

 

 

Comparison for the 1st of November.

 

Edited October 29, 2013 by Barry95

[Summer Sun]

Its back

 

Now get ready for an ‘Ice Age’ as experts warn of Siberian winter ahead

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2822347

 

Any guesses which paper its in.............

Edited October 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[cheeky_monkey]

maybe deep in GFS FI but its good to see high pressure getting sent to higher latitudes maybe a trend starting

 

gfsnh-0-384.png2.png3.pnggfsnh-2013102900-0-384.png

 

Those are very cold charts for my neck of the woods...daytime highs would be below -10c

[mountain shadow]

I'm liking the low pressure systems tracking that little bit further South, indicative of pressure being that bit higher towards the pole. As long as we don't see the PV shifting to it's Southern Greenland homeland we may get some decent Polar North Westerlies towards mid November.

 

These early GFS FI Strat models are a great sign. If the vortex struggles to get going at the start of Winter it will have a hard job later on when SSW's become more likely.

[tight isobar]

Cards on table here!!!! The meto, 16/30 day perceptions, are of a colder/much colder (perhaps). From friday this week......

[microclimate]

Does anyone know what the Autumn of 1962 was like? I seem to recall reading the 1962 had a cold spring similar to this year and was wondering whether there was any pattern to this years weather.

[bobbydog]

Does anyone know what the Autumn of 1962 was like? I seem to recall reading the 1962 had a cold spring similar to this year and was wondering whether there was any pattern to this years weather.

1962 (March):

1. With a CET=2.8degC, easily the COLDEST March in the 20th century, and the coldest March since 1892 (CET=2.7degC), but not in the 'top-10' of coldest Marches.

1962 (November):

1. From the 8th, as winds came more from a continental easterly direction, TEMPERATURES fell steadily, then abruptly on the 11th as Russian/arctic air spread west. The following weekend (16th/17th) was one of the STORMIEST/MOST SNOWY on record for November. GALES were widespread, GUSTS of 75 knots being recorded on the Isles of Scilly on both the 16th and 17th, and SLEET/SNOW fell practically everywhere. Level SNOW was 7 inches (circa 17cm) deep in parts of Scotland, with DRIFTS of 3 feet (circa 1 metre), and roads were BLOCKED, traffic dislocated as far south as Devon, Cornwall & Somerset. COLD, northerly winds persisted for several days, with widespread FROST

 

taken from this site- http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1950_1974.htm#1953

 

it doesnt mention october but good source of info

[Bobby]

Met Office seem to think that the wet unsettled weather will continue through November and beyond  A mild November also forecast and warmer than average temperatures more likely into January

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/q/A3_plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf

 

Forecast curves for November show a strong signal for wetter-than-average conditions. With computer models signalling westerly or southwesterly flow for November as a whole, it is thought more likely than not that many northern and western parts of Britain would be wetter than in November 2012.

For November-December-January as a whole the forecast favours above-average rainfall over below-average, with the probability of very wet conditions enhanced, and that for very dry conditions reduced, with respect to climatology.

 

These influences are reflected in the forecast in Figure T2, which shows a strong signal for milder-than-average conditions in November. In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost.Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milderwinters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January.

 

Confidence of course drops a lot further out.

Edited October 29, 2013 by Bobby

[Chess01]

People need stop taking computers models as a gospel so much . We are still 3 weeks away from knowing what the first part of winter will be like never mind January and February . Things look good for a cold setup mid to end November . The PV looks weak and if we can split it the that's great . We have cold bottled up in Europe. We have just got to ride this jetstream/ Low pressure systems for another few weeks until things start to settle . I think we have quite exciting weather right now proper autumn like which is Better than the dross that we have put up with the last few weeks . Enjoy autumn people

Edited October 29, 2013 by Chess01

[Buriedundersnow]

Met Office seem to think that the wet unsettled weather will continue through November and beyond  A mild November also forecast and warmer than average temperatures more likely into January

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/q/A3_plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf

 

Forecast curves for November show a strong signal for wetter-than-average conditions. With computer models signalling westerly or southwesterly flow for November as a whole, it is thought more likely than not that many northern and western parts of Britain would be wetter than in November 2012.

For November-December-January as a whole the forecast favours above-average rainfall over below-average, with the probability of very wet conditions enhanced, and that for very dry conditions reduced, with respect to climatology.

 

These influences are reflected in the forecast in Figure T2, which shows a strong signal for milder-than-average conditions in November. In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost.Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milderwinters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January.

 

Confidence of course drops a lot further out.

 

yeah but that it just based on the seasonal model output is it not?

[MPG]

People need stop taking computers models as a gospel so much . We are still 3 weeks away from knowing what the first part of winter will be like never mind January and February . Things look good for a cold setup mid to end November . The PV looks weak and if we can split it the that's great . We have cold bottled up in Europe. We have just got to ride this jetstream/ Low pressure systems for another few weeks until things start to settle . I think we have quite exciting weather right now proper autumn like which is Better than the dross that we have put up with the last few weeks . Enjoy autumn people

Well said. Anyway, people (as i keep reminding) forget that November 2010 was very mild until the last week when a NE wind kicked in.

[Captain Shortwave]

Cards on table here!!!! The meto, 16/30 day perceptions, are of a colder/much colder (perhaps). From friday this week......

Really? Not what the metoffice site says, temperatures near normal and if anything for pressure to rise from the south bringing drier weather there. No mention of even below average temperatures, let alone cold or frosts.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 12 Nov 2013:

Rain, locally heavy, across southern areas will clear east on Monday with most parts then seeing strong to gale force winds and squally showers. Drier and brighter at first on Tuesday with lighter winds before more wind and rain reaches western areas later in the day, spreading east. Temperatures will generally be near normal. Largely unsettled conditions look set to dominate the weather thereafter with showers or longer spells of rain, locally heavy, particularly in the west. It will stay windy in many areas, especially in the northwest. There will, however, be some drier and brighter interludes with the best of these in the south. Towards the end of the period, these more settled conditions may last longer in the south resulting in more overnight fog here.

Updated: 1214 on Tue 29 Oct 2013

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 27 Nov 2013:

 

Early November's mostly unsettled conditions are thought likely to persist across northern and western regions. As such, rainfall amounts here are more likely than not to be above average and conditions may also be quite windy at times. Further south and east, rainfall accumulations are considered likely to be nearer average, implying slightly more changeable conditions with drier, brighter periods interspersed with more unsettled bouts of weather. Taking the country as a whole, temperatures during this period are more likely than not to be near, or perhaps above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of overnight frost than can usually be expected at this time of year.

Updated: 1159 on Tue 29 Oct 2013

Edited October 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well said. Anyway, people (as i keep reminding) forget that November 2010 was very mild until the last week when a NE wind kicked in.

 

I remember thinking in November 2009, 'well here comes another mild winter'. How wrong was I.....

 

2 months later I was experiencing -16C!

Edited October 29, 2013 by CreweCold

[Chess01]

I remember thinking in November 2009, 'well here comes another mild winter'. How wrong was I.....2 months later I was experiencing -16C!

exactly I don't see why people want intense cold now we want it closer to winter as possible . Get everything in place and the cold should hold . There's no need to rush it to get a week of cold when you could wait 3 to 4 weeks to establish a cold pattern for most of the winter

[Buriedundersnow]

heres todays gavsweathervids video and he is punting for colder from mid month onwards

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toUvfOH8BSs#t=584

[smithyweather]

That would be good. I'd take 2/3c maxes with -4c at night for the mid of the month as long as it doesn't warm up again.

[Panayiotis]

Getting me excited! 5% chance of snow for my location!!!! wooooo

Edited October 29, 2013 by Panayiotis

[throwoff]

I think temps are certain to drop through November, snow will come.

[hillbilly]

A lot of geese flying south over the weekend if you believe that's a sign of things to come!

[feb1991blizzard]

Downgrades as the day has progressed, there were some stonking Northern hemisphere multiple wave patterns in the far reaches of FI on the overnight suites, these seem to have diminished greatly as the day has progressed.

[feb1991blizzard]

Some decent GEFS runs in the 18z wrt trying to disrupt / spit / displace the PV, I will investigate further - only up to number 8 and there only up to 270 yet though so bare with me.

 

They tended to fizzle out somewhat, better than 12z but not as good as the ones this morning, some serious ridges squeezing directly over the other side of the pole but not a lot from anywhere else, nothing smashing right through the pole like this morning.

Edited October 29, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Barry12]

GFS 18z would bring snow to parts of northern UK during mid November.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Probably just sleety showers for north and east-facing coasts, with lying snow over the Scottish Highlands and North York Moors, but yes, the GFS 18Z does show a fairly potent northerly near the end of the run. 

Not much hope for snow lovers yet on the 500mb outlooks from NOAA but they only take us up to the 12th November- it's still very early days.