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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Last thread was getting slightly long. Time for a fresh one I think.

 

So we've got Ian Brown and Gavin in one corner already flying the 'mild flag' and me and a few others in the other corner flying the flag for all things cold, wintry and positively snowy!

 

Carry on the chat here... oh and  this is for all you snow lovers....

 

Posted Image ( Picture Source: Metoffice.gov.uk)

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First wintry charts from the GFS this season deep in FI

 

post-10987-0-77848900-1383001217_thumb.p

 

post-10987-0-93915600-1383001272_thumb.p

 

Out in la la land but serves to remind people why writing off a whole month as mild might be a silly idea....+AO to -AO in the blink of an eye.

Edited by CreweCold
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First wintry charts from the GFS this season deep in FI

 

Posted ImageNov Wintry.png

 

Posted ImageNov Wintry 2.png

 

Out in la la land but serves to remind people why writing off a whole month as mild might be a silly idea....+AO to -AO in the blink of an eye.

 

 

I do think that IF we are to get an early blast, and I am far from convinced yet but that is the most likely route to it IMO.

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I do think that IF we are to get an early blast, and I am far from convinced yet but that is the most likely route to it IMO.

 

Remember Feb......unsettled/stormy then progressively colder through November....

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post-9095-0-36873200-1383031698_thumb.jp

Second run on the trot that shows the dismantling of the vortex in deep fi , not saying anything more than that. There has been talk of possible early SSW in November , read an article the other day think it was posted hear somewhere. Could be a trend as we move November. Would love nothing more after the met o released there forecast for November , keep the likes of IB quiet anyway !!

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Defined signs, of pv disrupt perhaps split, my thoughts have been toying with a mid November,onward cold outbreak.And latest trending would most certain be at least hinting(taking shape),along with the very active jet at present, that I feel may burn herself out by around.mid nov, to co-inside with vortex disrupt......ample for the door to open for blocking!!!! Watch this space...

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I remain in camp of mild to pretty darn mild latter half of Nov, though I think early Nov will bring a sting to it.  I'm not saying 'mild winter/winter over' far from it. Will be interesting to see what recretos says on Strat thread re the PV and signs or not of disruption.

Looking at CET range as this Oct is going to be well above 12c, 9 Octobers recorded a CET of over 12c, 5 were followed by a cold Dec and 4 by a mild one.

 

BFTP

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maybe deep in GFS FI but its good to see high pressure getting sent to higher latitudes maybe a trend starting

 

post-18233-0-37768900-1383044388_thumb.ppost-18233-0-98738400-1383044397_thumb.ppost-18233-0-52974900-1383044407_thumb.p

 

maybe it something to do with this in the strat in previous runs

 

post-18233-0-24420400-1383044448_thumb.ppost-18233-0-93591800-1383044455_thumb.ppost-18233-0-85774700-1383044465_thumb.p

 

we will have to wait till we get into the reliable for it all to get sorted out and see where we really stand but still good to see and long may it continue


Posted Imageimage.jpg

Second run on the trot that shows the dismantling of the vortex in deep fi , not saying anything more than that. There has been talk of possible early SSW in November , read an article the other day think it was posted hear somewhere. Could be a trend as we move November. Would love nothing more after the met o released there forecast for November , keep the likes of IB quiet anyway !!

 

 

this the article you were thinking of

 

http://weatherworksinc.com/early-November-snow-threat

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