Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[mikeocarroll]

Have any of you guys got snow?

 

Certainly not any snow in my part of the world, was up over 600m today and no sign of any snow (not that I was looking for or expecting any). Did finally get my first air frost last night though, -1.5c, was a thick layer of ice on everything this morning following yesterday's heavy rain.

[Panayiotis]

Snow on Brecon Beacons today.

Edited November 10, 2013 by Panayiotis

[welshgritter]

Bring on the cold.... In fairness many have been touting the 18th..... Many reports are still showing a drop in this date. Let's have it!!! Make some £££££

[keithlucky]

GFS and Jetstream outlook looking poorer by the day for any chance of the Azores High Pressure being to our SE and maintaining SW'ly winds unfortunately. The Jet Stream is currently in a 'normal' position but by Friday goes over the top of the UK, into Norway then backtracks over SE England, something I have never seen before. The High Pressure from the Azores seems to be nudged westwards, allowing a more NW'ly polar maritime flow, followed by northerlies. So the change in the weather seems to on the way,we need a change from this wet damp weather.

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

Edited November 11, 2013 by keithlucky

[gareth moo]

Growing concensus from the models of winter's arrival next week..

[Blackjack]

We'll its that time of year again when the model out put starts to get interesting and we gather for the roller coaster ride of winter.

 

Hopefull things will be getting colder next week.

 

BTW has anyone known the leaves on some trees to still be so green so far into Nov? Last time i remember such an abundance on leaves was......2009......

[Panayiotis]

We'll its that time of year again when the model out put starts to get interesting and we gather for the roller coaster ride of winter.

 

Hopefull things will be getting colder next week.

 

BTW has anyone known the leaves on some trees to still be so green so far into Nov? Last time i remember such an abundance on leaves was......2009......

Ye ive noticed that too (especially with the trees in my area which are normally leafless by this time of year), I wonder why? 

[andymusic]

Ok - it's that time of the year again - Joe is back with some encouraging tweets - Make sure the Turbines are working Europe,cold is coming and become king in December pic.twitter.com/sPt2XCbSN2

 

and

 

Europe-parties over as it turns colder, could deepen into a December to remember. Blocking could pop Hope those turbines are working

[whiskers]

I would love to be stuck in for xmas so I wouldn't have to go visiting! Everyone's to far away to walk so could stay home in my pyjamas, any chance? Plz

[Panayiotis]

I think there is a good chance that Wales, next week will see snow, especially the west. The west does do good from these kind of setups, especially in November because the Celtic Sea is still warm, (current Celtic Sea temps are around 13/12C now), so with upper air temps expected to drop down to -4C (and lower), there will a 16C difference which will allow for great instability producing heavy snow showers.

Edited November 13, 2013 by Panayiotis

[andymusic]

Western Europe/Much of US share in cold next 16 days..block may lock after, leading to cold December both also pic.twitter.com/UOtLDNh6kd - models firming up on this - joe tweet

[keithlucky]

Western Europe/Much of US share in cold next 16 days..block may lock after, leading to cold December both also pic.twitter.com/UOtLDNh6kd - models firming up on this - joe tweet

YEs Andy our first cold blast setting up from the NWest monday

[Snowmadsam]

West Wales may get a covering as winds are from the North West meaning the dangler will wake up...need to come home from Cardiff hahaha! 

 

If this Greenland block DID verify it would be a big treat for the west side of Wales with a Northerly Wind being most likely which would stir up that dangler again....we just need to make sure it looks in.....

 

Its all to play for folks!!

[keithlucky]

Everthing is setting up nicely a strong N Westerly flow with High Pressure building over greenland

[Panayiotis]

Hopefully I get to see some snow showers next week but im not expecting anything to accumulate as this setup isnt the best for my location (as others have said West and North Wales may see something more). Just to get me in the mood for the winter!

Edited November 13, 2013 by Panayiotis

[keithlucky]

Yes i dont expect much to come to low ground to Wales looks like heavy showers with wet snow even on low ground in Wales in the heavier bursts, but its a nice starter,let!s have a gradual cooling before the main course comes!

Edited November 14, 2013 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Tuesday looks like the start of it now

 

 

and more on wednesday also

 

 

 

details will be firmed up nearer the time I'm sure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cwmbran Eira]

Although I will look forward to any cold spell part of me is thinking I would rather wait until just before Christmas. The weather seems to never want to give us a good set up for Christmas. I hope this year is an exception

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - tuesday next week

 

 

wintry/snowy showers then continue around coastal areas overnight!

 

the return of THE DANGLER

 

 

Blocking and reloads a plenty as we get to the end of november - teleconnections via GFS

 

 

 

some amazing charts - ala december 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by andymusic

[J10]

Having a quick look ahead to next week. Based on GFS 12Hz run.

 

850Hpa Temps -7c to -8c at its coldest.

 

Wind Direction at time of coldest Air North to North Easterly.

Thickness 516-518m and 1285-1290m

 

These conditions are quite conducive to some overnight snow, providing those exact conditions were maintained, but the NE wind is the wrong direction for a Pembrokeshire Dangler which does limit precipitation chances for Southern and Western areas, with the possible exception of Western Pembs.

 

 

As ever it will be interesting to see what actually happens next week.

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by J10

[whiskers]

I know you can guarantee a month before xmas and a month after we will have snow,but never xmas itself,it's just not meant to be

[keithlucky]

Having a quick look ahead to next week. Based on GFS 12Hz run.

 

850Hpa Temps -7c to -8c at its coldest.

 

Wind Direction at time of coldest Air North to North Easterly.

Thickness 516-518m and 1285-1290m

 

These conditions are quite conducive to some overnight snow, providing those exact conditions were maintained, but the NE wind is the wrong direction for a Pembrokeshire Dangler which does limit precipitation chances for Southern and Western areas, with the possible exception of Western Pembs.

 

GFS Next Wednesday 2.JPG

 

As ever it will be interesting to see what actually happens next week.

According to the met a very good chance of more widespread sleet/snow tues wednesday yes J10 interesting week ahead.

[keithlucky]

 For the last few years winters have been continually filled with dream charts and with a little bit more luck we could have had a lot more snow .This early  start to winter has started thrown up good winter charts.But this one deserves a wolf Whistle SEXY!

[andymusic]

models repeat repeat

 

 

GFS 18z with a more substantial feature for tuesday and wednesday on this run

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by andymusic

[Bobby]

Get the snow ploughs ready! Won't happen though, probably