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Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->


Snowangel-MK

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Tamping down here like innit. 48mm in the raingauge since the front moved in last night, going to have ducks in the garden before long, is like a swamp. Ground completely waterlogged. Had a torrential downpour earlier and I thought I heard thunder.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

possible wintriness at height showing on nae for friday - seems ian ferguson thinks we may get some wintriness into saturday too

 

Posted Image

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

I am away but the provisional Dec rain was 257mm at home as judged from the online WS, this would be my wettest Dec just pipping last year. In contRast just 48mm here in Warwickshire.

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December Rainfall Mumbles 107.2mm (Incomplete 2 Dec) 1116.6mm (Year)

 

Other local stations Blackpill 99mm, Cwm Level 155mm in December

 

Other official stations

 

03405 112.8 Aberdaron (Incomplete for 30 Dec)

03321 068.8 Hawarden

03409 211.0 Bala

03410 238.6 Lake Vrynwy

03502 156.4 Aberporth

03503 190.2 Trawscoed

03507 223.8 Sennybridge

03604 132.4 Milford Haven

03605 152.2 Pembrey Sands

03716 67.0 St Athan (Incomplete from 21-24 Dec inclusive)

Source http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html and http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03716&ano=2014&mes=1&day=4&hora=24&min=0&ndays=50

 

A wet start to the year with 19mm already.

Edited by J10
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Bad news for those wanting cold -

 

James Madden -

 

January – The January period is likely to become progressively colder as we progress throughout the month. This will bring a very cold and exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half of this forecasting period.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/page-111

 

Anyone for a barbecue. Posted Image

Edited by J10
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James who?

Let us get this bit right - his prediction of a three month freeze has erm kinda frozen?

Not going to insult idiots, so best stop there eh Posted ImagePosted Image draw a line, cut ones losses, grow some gonads?

 

Wasn't that my point, or didn't you see the comment about barbecues.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

saturday - snow or hail?

 

Posted Image

looks like backedge snow on that chart and something that ian ferguson on the model thread was alluding to a couple of days ago!!
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

looks like backedge snow on that chart and something that ian ferguson on the model thread was alluding to a couple of days ago!!

unfortunately most of the cold pm incursions so far have mostly resulted in hail or some wet snow with the exception of xmas eve/day when Brecon did get a white covering!!!!

 

and further warnings

 

 

Yellow Alert of Wind for Wales : Flintshire, Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Ceredigion, Powys, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Swansea, Bridgend, Neath Port Talbot, Monmouthshire, Isle of Anglesey, Newport, Vale of Glamorgan & Cardiff valid from 0900 Sun 05 Jan to 1800 Sun 05 Jan
Yellow Warning of Wind for Wales : Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen & Vale of Glamorgan valid from 0005 Fri 03 Jan to 2359 Fri 03 Jan
 
 
more wintry potential in the low res GFS 12z but may alter in the next run - however the meto seem to think less rain and colder conditions will arrive after the middle of Jan! - we shall see
 
 
high tides and wind warnings for south west coastal areas - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25580124
Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Neath
  • Location: Neath

unfortunately most of the cold pm incursions so far have mostly resulted in hail or some wet snow with the exception of xmas eve/day when Brecon did get a white covering!!!! and further warnings Yellow Alert of Wind for Wales Yellow Alert of Wind for Wales : Flintshire, Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Ceredigion, Powys, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Swansea, Bridgend, Neath Port Talbot, Monmouthshire, Isle of Anglesey, Newport, Vale of Glamorgan & Cardiff valid from 0900 Sun 05 Jan to 1800 Sun 05 JanYellow Warning of Wind for WalesYellow Warning of Wind for Wales : Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen & Vale of Glamorgan valid from 0005 Fri 03 Jan to 2359 Fri 03 Jan  more wintry potential in the low res GFS 12z but may alter in the next run - however the meto seem to think less rain and colder conditions will arrive after the middle of Jan! - we shall see  high tides and wind warnings for south west coastal areas - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25580124

Happy Days on the cold And !!!!! Bring it on !!!!
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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

Max tidal flooding alert for Barmouth tomorrow, and lesser warnings for pretty much complete coast of Wales-

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx

 

Huge seas-

 

post-7763-0-08030500-1388694959_thumb.gi

 

Extremely low pressure-

 

post-7763-0-27978900-1388694989_thumb.gi

 

On-shore gales-

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Wonder if the swell on the Pembroke (Turbot Bank) Bouy will top the 30ft it reached in the big autumn storm?

 

Take care.

post-7763-0-69856900-1388694190_thumb.gi

post-7763-0-16179200-1388694567_thumb.gi

Edited by benb
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Max tidal flooding alert for Barmouth tomorrow, and lesser warnings for pretty much complete coast of Wales-

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx

 

Huge seas-

 

Posted ImageFri.gif

 

Extremely low pressure-

 

Posted Imagepressure.gif

 

On-shore gales-

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Wonder if the swell on the Pembroke (Turbot Bank) Bouy will top the 30ft it reached in the big autumn storm?

 

Take care.

 

Thanks for that posting, it could be a very serious event,

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

Shipping forecast for Fastnet, Lundy and Irish Sea not looking good either-

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~IrishSea

 

Regarding the Barmouth warning, does: "At Barmouth the tide level is expected to reach 3.92 metres above Ordnance Datum", mean they expect it to reach nearly 4 metres higher than the normal max for this tide, or something else?

 

If so, that's really, really worrying.

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Posted
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)

Also a severe flood alert for parts of Newport. High tide in Newport is 07.30am so if you live there in a vulnerable area then it may be worth being prepared tonight and getting up very early tomorrow to check the situation.

 

post-13083-0-82736800-1388703340_thumb.j

 

I feel very fortunate to live in a location that would be more or less impossible to flood.

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Posted
  • Location: Newport
  • Location: Newport

Looks like the Usk in Newport has burst its banks

 

https://twitter.com/dannyelliott17/status/418891449036709888/photo/1

 

Yep I saw that photo along with -

 

 Posted Image

 

It always gets worryingly high during the high spring tides but the Env Agency are predicting the next high tide at 8am will be 0.9m-1m higher because of the storm. Tomorrow will be interesting...!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Hope everyone is ok for tonight (although even I feel as though, for some, it may be havoc), the EURO4 has the best signal for snow for some parts of highland Wales on Saturday:

Posted Image

The 850-1000hPa thickness graph for 48hrs seems good (places in light blue), so if there is any PPN around (and taking account the sun wont have much part to play), some places even down to lower levels in the south may see some wintry stuff with accumulations on higher ground (+250m for now :p):

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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