Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[andymusic]

_{gfs 12z - status quo high res - more rain - some wind - colder very occasionally with wintriness - but nothing outstanding I'm afraid}

[mickeyflyn]

Wow some serious gusts and heavy rain just arrived ! 6.2mm rain all day to 7.8 in 10 mins !

[J10]

NAE High Resolution. Confirms the rainfall above.

[andymusic]

Ecm 12z offering more in the way of blocking - certainly more chance of cold from that model today

 

wind is now picking up again and more squally rain fronts moving into Wales from the west on radar

[Panayiotis]

I think the coldest month of this winter will be March, CFS constantly since September showing that month to be the coldest!

[welshgritter]

With all this awesome freezing cold America is having, will any be pushed in this direction???

[benb]

Follow the incoming swell-

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom.shtml

 

14ft on Pembroke Bouy, atm.

 

39ft(!) on K2, SW of Ireland.

 

I think these're average heights over an hour so there'll probably be bigger swell within those figures.

 

As a marker, the Pembroke Bouy maxed-out at 28ft in the storm at the end of last week and 30ft during the storm at the end of October.

 

As a rule of thumb, actual waves heights on the beaches in S.Pembs are generally: Freshwest 2/3rds of bouy height, Manobier 1/2 bouy height and Tenby Southbeach 1/5th bouy height (although there are exceptions to these).

 

Webcams:

 

http://www.gowerlive.co.uk/

 

Blowy here overnight, but not exceptional.

[Summer Sun]

People are being urged to leave their homes in Aberystwyth as the coast of Wales is at risk of flooding with strong winds and more rain forecast.

 

A full evacuation of all seafront student accommodation in the town is under way.

[DeepSnow]

I hope things in Aberystwyth have calmed down by the time I go back at the end of the month for university! Luckily my house is up by campus not on the seafront!

[Carl46Wrexham]

This "winter" is turning out to be the worst kind of relentless autumnal wet windy crap. An unflushable turd of a season.

[snefnug]

Have downloaded plans to build an ark.....

 

However, prefer unrelenting rain to minus big number temps and snow in the US and Canada. 

[Snowyowl9]

This "winter" is turning out to be the worst kind of relentless autumnal wet windy crap. An unflushable turd of a season.

Like 1988 except than was much much milder.Shocking afternoon today very heavy shower and strong winds followed by stinging driving hailstorms,I`m glad I wasn`t out in the middle of a field as if I would be, seeing the dark clouds incoming. Edited January 6, 2014 by Snowyowl9

[Carl46Wrexham]

Like 1988 except than was much much milder.Shocking afternoon today very heavy shower and strong winds followed by stinging driving hailstorms,I`m glad I wasn`t out in the middle of a field as if I would be, seeing the dark clouds incoming.

Being in the middle of a field would be unwise....you'd sink!

[ANYWEATHER]

 Best place in the World  

[viking_smb]

That's porthcawl I work down there, it is a nice place  

[foggybrynna]

Andy any sign of that cold weather USA having coming our way

[mikeocarroll]

Andy any sign of that cold weather USA having coming our way

 

Sadly it's a myth that cold weather comes from the USA to the UK - there's a big warm ocean between us so any cold air that leaves the USA in our direction is warm by the time it reaches us. For us in the UK to have cold weather, the air has to originate from the north or east. There are some hints in the models that the endless train of wet and windy weather could come to an end in a week or so, and some colder solutions are possible. 

[Panayiotis]

Sadly it's a myth that cold weather comes from the USA to the UK - there's a big warm ocean between us so any cold air that leaves the USA in our direction is warm by the time it reaches us. For us in the UK to have cold weather, the air has to originate from the north or east. There are some hints in the models that the endless train of wet and windy weather could come to an end in a week or so, and some colder solutions are possible. 

Although I dont agree with 'When the weather is cold in the US, it will be in the UK', you can see why some people may believe in the expression.

For deep cold in the US you need a low to run up the E side of the US, bringing colder air from the north (via NW/N winds). The only way a low pressure system can take this track, is if there is a ridge in the Atlantic (like there is now), If this ridge develops correctly it will bring cold to the UK.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Mizze]

Thunder and lightning over Swansea. Heavy showers too.

[Marcus_surfer]

One crazy thunderstorm going on here

[andymusic]

Andy any sign of that cold weather USA having coming our way

we could hope that it does - but there's no straight connection between us and them - I used to believe what they got we'd get 2 weeks later - but it doesn't quite work like that unfortunately - We have to build our own pattern from the north or east/north east to get lasting cold - in general - as we all know - the weather has a way of balancing itself out - so, after all this wind and rain we've had, we should now start to see a change to drier - and hopefully cooler/colder conditions - there are signs now of blocking on all the models - let's hope the set ups become favourable for our cold and snow!

[virtualsphere]

Thunder / lightning on and off between 1:30 and 4am, mostly fairly distant here but sounded like somewhere S or E of us was getting pummelled - perhaps that was your storm in Swansea!

[andymusic]

more of the wet stuff

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for Wales : Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Neath Port Talbot, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Newport & Torfaen valid from 1200 Wed 08 Jan to 0900 Thu 09 Jan

[Bobby]

More thunder and lightning last night although fairly distant.

 

More heavy rain tomorrow, EURO4 model giving another 50mm/2inches in places.

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by Bobby

[Carl46Wrexham]

More stinking crap from the winter thats done nothing but stink the place out. Jeez I cant wait for Spring to come.