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Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->


Snowangel-MK

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Recorded 68mm here last night, what a washout month this is turning into. 385mm now with more to come. Winds never really got going though, was expecting it to be windier.

 

Just saw the local news and there is a lot of flooding around this area, not surprised!

Edited by Bobby
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Posted
  • Location: beechwood newport s.wales 77mtrs asl
  • Location: beechwood newport s.wales 77mtrs asl

Temp 8.8

humidity 80%

pressure 997.5mb

23.1 mm rain in the last 24 hours here

Dry with 7 mph westerly at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.

Huge discrepancies with only 2mm of rain in St Athan.

 

Looking at the radar, the rainfall really steps up as we go inland and over hills.

 

Agreed. We suffered, or almost, very badly just before Christmas 2012. Our local river (Pencoed) went up to almost 1.6 metres practically overnight. I moved all the stuff in the garage off the floor and was prepared to move the ground floor stuff in the house. We got away with it, any more rain and we would have flooded.

This year the gauge has never topped 1 metre and even today is still running at 0.6 being well within it's normal range. It was still 0.45 even during the dry summer spell.

 

It's VERY wet around but we are coping. The rainfall does seem to be increasing over the heads of the valleys. And, eventually, it has to drain out somewhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

zonal zonal zonal ------ blah blah blah - (reverse psychology) - winters looking like it's never gonna get here this season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Yet again another low pressure system is set to move in from the Atlantic with more heavy rain and strong winds.

 

NAE 18Z shows the heavy rain for new years day with the heaviest precipitation over the South:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/30/basis18/ukuk/prec/14010112_3018.gif

 

Although taking into account that rivers are already high its not going to help the flooding situation.

 

The low pressure system itself is quite deep and forecast to head in a North East direction. Again the winds are forecast to be strong gusting around 60mph possibly 70mph on western coastal fringes.

 

Looking through the GFS, ECM & UKMO 12z data there seems to be little change to the Atlantic dominated theme. Again lets look to the ECM Ensemble mean chart at 144hrs:

post-7888-0-95418800-1388450097_thumb.pn

 

We see a trough to our West extending its influence over the UK and Western Europe.

 

GEFS Ensemble mean for the same time (144hrs):

post-7888-0-82458500-1388450463_thumb.pn

 

Both showing the same theme, so i think we are to expect more of the same wind/rain and a general flow from the west or south west.

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Could be some lively convective weather this evening and tonight with hail, thunder and lightning possible. Level 1 warning from Estofex for Wales

 

Posted Image

 

From Met Office:

All areas remaining rather breezy overnight, with clear spells and scattered, blustery showers. These showers are likely to be heavy at times, with a risk of hail and thunder.

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

Hail, thunder & lightning reported from the squal line just passing over SE Ireland... Bound for Wales!

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Posted
  • Location: Deiniolen, north west Wales during lockdown
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Weather
  • Location: Deiniolen, north west Wales during lockdown

Reports of Thunder and hail towards Anglesey - nothing of yet her on the mainland apart from very gusty winds and some rain. Looking black towards the North and the West. C'mon 2014, we need to get rid of 2013 with a bang!

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Posted
  • Location: Neath
  • Location: Neath

zonal zonal zonal ------ blah blah blah - (reverse psychology) - winters looking like it's never gonna get here this season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOOOOOO ANDY !!!! Goonies never say die !!!! Plus I got 60 tonne of rock salt.Happy new year all from the one and only Welsh Gritter
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Posted
  • Location: upper tumble, llanelli, carmarthenshire
  • Location: upper tumble, llanelli, carmarthenshire

We had a 15 minute storm about 5:30 managed to trip the electric briefly. Had enough of this wind and rain where's the snow is it worth me buying some hob nobs soon ?

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

We had a 15 minute storm about 5:30 managed to trip the electric briefly. Had enough of this wind and rain where's the snow is it worth me buying some hob nobs soon ?

 

Heard that from here in Cross Hands area, although it sounded like it was further north - had three rumbles and saw a flash between 5:15 and 6pm.

 

Let's hope the new year brings something a little more seasonal! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl

Happy new year all, I hope 2014 brings you plenty of northern blocking Posted Image 

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Heard that from here in Cross Hands area, although it sounded like it was further north - had three rumbles and saw a flash between 5:15 and 6pm.

 

Let's hope the new year brings something a little more seasonal! Posted Image

 

Some Lightning here around 6pm.

 

Happy New Year to all.

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Some Lightning here around 6pm.

 

Happy New Year to all.

Swans stay up go on the Jacks!!!!

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)

Happy new year everyone! havent posted much this year well last year now. Due to lack of any sort of positive signs of cold and snow heres hoping 2014 brings us some white stuff. Does fergie mentioning in the mod thread, a high signal of snow for parts of central/southern england include wales?, im hoping so, any way back to lurking.

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Possible snow  event as Lp sucks in colder air Saturday on its northern flank of The LP moves west to east across the UK. Snow events often come when least expected Posted Image

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Happy new year to everyone! 

 

More heavy rain to come this evening according to the NAE:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/01/basis06/ukuk/prec/14010118_0106.gif @12hrs

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/01/basis06/ukuk/prec/14010121_0106.gif @ 15hrs

 

Looking at Met Office observation data a gust of 61mph @ Mumbles recorded at 11am. Gusts into the high 50's across western coastal fringes this morning. The main focus on this system though is the rainfall and here are the flood warnings in force across Wales:

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Region&term=Wales&from=fl

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Happy new year to everyone! 

 

More heavy rain to come this evening according to the NAE:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/01/basis06/ukuk/prec/14010118_0106.gif @12hrs

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/01/basis06/ukuk/prec/14010121_0106.gif @ 15hrs

 

Looking at Met Office observation data a gust of 61mph @ Mumbles recorded at 11am. Gusts into the high 50's across western coastal fringes this morning. The main focus on this system though is the rainfall and here are the flood warnings in force across Wales:

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Region&term=Wales&from=fl

 

Those charts duplicate the rainfall, As the rainfall covers 6 hours, and the time difference shown in 3 hours. But the theme of heavy rain especially for the Valleys is confirmed.

 

Looking back to December three were 20 days with Gusts over 40mph and 15 days over 50mph.

Edited by J10
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