Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->


Snowangel-MK

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Thunderstorm here too, first flash was really bright with a loud clap of thunder straight after. Seems to be moving on now, it was also preceded by a heavy hail shower.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Just had heavy rain and strong winds here, seems we missed the worst of it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

Thunderstorm here also around 16:30.

 

Arrived last night to 50+mph winds, horizontal rain and a power cut.

 

Looks like we've got more of the same over the next few days but hopefully some of the white stuff on the mountain tops tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

Been a mostly dry evening. But the showers have pepped up a bit. Hail and squall. More rain again now. Passing quickly with the moon shining.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Hi Guys! Its great to come back and see all the posts/updates on the Welsh thread.

 

Looking to do an update tomorrow, as during the next week the Atlantic will be very active and with all that energy in the jet stream interacting with the storm, the potential for severe winds is quite high.

 

Longwave trough setting up just to the west of the UK gradually nudging eastwards allowing a colder/cooler flow from the West/Northwest which has been ejected out of Canada & has travelled over the Atlantic but nothing more than that in terms of cold for now. Main concerns will be precipitation distribution and the strength of the wind for next week.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Hi Guys! Its great to come back and see all the posts/updates on the Welsh thread.

 

Looking to do an update tomorrow, as during the next week the Atlantic will be very active and with all that energy in the jet stream interacting with the storm, the potential for severe winds is quite high.

 

Longwave trough setting up just to the west of the UK gradually nudging eastwards allowing a colder/cooler flow from the West/Northwest which has been ejected out of Canada & has travelled over the Atlantic but nothing more than that in terms of cold for now. Main concerns will be precipitation distribution and the strength of the wind for next week.

Jamie back that"s a good omen he senses a change in weather pattern, he is opposite of a squirrel he comes out of hibernation when he senses the cold coming!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)

Yes seemed to be quite a squall in the night about 3.15ish here.

 

Now time to batten down the hatches ahead of strong winds and heavy rain tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

 

Amber Warning of Rain for Wales : Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil, Powys & Torfaen valid from 0700 Mon 23 Dec to 0900 Tue 24 Dec
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Amber Warning of Rain for Wales : Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil, Powys & Torfaen valid from 0700 Mon 23 Dec to 0900 Tue 24 Dec

 

 

EURO4 (new enhanced version of NAE) shows the rainfall distribution quite effectively.

 

The first one shows today's rainfall A few heavy showers but generally, no real problems. (Rainfall to T+24)

 post-213-0-75901500-1387720206_thumb.gif

 

This shows the much heavier rainfall expected tomorrow, with the increased resolution picking up the increased and potentially problematic rainfall for the hilly areas. (Rainfall to T+48)

post-213-0-63009500-1387720208_thumb.gif -

 

Would still wish for more detail in terms of spot rainfall totals as per NAE though.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201301100600&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=

Edited by J10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

Just had a nasty storm push through with hail & thunder dropping the temp by over 2c in a very short space of time. Tomorrow looks interesting to say the least, especially along South & West coastal areas ...stay safe people ...Merry Christmas & a happy New Year from Rhoose !

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Well 12Z data is out so time for another update regarding tomorrows storm.

 

We see a frontal wave coming out of NE US/Canada which is interacting with a very intense jet stream as seen below:

post-7888-0-62333700-1387731449_thumb.pn

post-7888-0-13744100-1387731571_thumb.pn

 

This serves to rapidly develop the frontal wave into a deep low pressure system which is forecast to run up just to the northwest of the UK.

 

We will see a band of very heavy rain along with severe winds cross the UK, the NAE shows the rain to be especially heavy across Central and South Wales so flooding is also a risk:

post-7888-0-30366400-1387731870_thumb.gi

 

Theres potential for damaging wind gusts for parts of Wales as the storm is intensified by the strong jet stream coming across the UK. We can see this by looking at the GFS for tomorrow morning as it shows the area of high upper level winds crossing the UK:

post-7888-0-20742800-1387733600_thumb.pn

 

This is where the strongest winds will likely occur at the surface as shown on GFS 12z, this is the average wind speed:

post-7888-0-08225400-1387733916_thumb.pn

 

Taking this into account i think that Western/NW/SW coastal areas of Wales could see gusts of 70-80mph during this period. 

 

Will be interesting to view the wind speed observations tomorrow! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well 12Z data is out so time for another update regarding tomorrows storm.

 

We see a frontal wave coming out of NE US/Canada which is interacting with a very intense jet stream as seen below:

Posted ImageJetstream 12z.png

Posted Imageairpressure 12z.png

 

This serves to rapidly develop the frontal wave into a deep low pressure system which is forecast to run up just to the northwest of the UK.

 

We will see a band of very heavy rain along with severe winds cross the UK, the NAE shows the rain to be especially heavy across Central and South Wales so flooding is also a risk:

Posted Imagenae 12z.gif

 

Theres potential for damaging wind gusts for parts of Wales as the storm is intensified by the strong jet stream coming across the UK. We can see this by looking at the GFS for tomorrow morning as it shows the area of high upper level winds crossing the UK:

Posted Imagejet upper winds.png

 

This is where the strongest winds will likely occur at the surface as shown on GFS 12z, this is the average wind speed:

Posted Imageukwind 12.png

 

Taking this into account i think that Western/NW/SW coastal areas of Wales could see gusts of 70-80mph during this period. 

 

Will be interesting to view the wind speed observations tomorrow! 

 

EURO 4 rainfall post-213-0-08252200-1387737464_thumb.gif High resolution model breakdown of above rainfall analysis. But it will be wet no doubt about that.

 

GFS gusts post-213-0-95539400-1387737717_thumb.pngpost-213-0-00695300-1387737731_thumb.png Supports above comment about 70-80-mph winds.

Edited by J10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

Nice to see the precipitation settling as snow at altitude.…

Snowdon & Crib Goch from the East.

post-1596-0-96535100-1387744486_thumb.jp

Glyder Fawr, Glyder Fach & Tryfan.

post-1596-0-98964500-1387744695_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Steve murr mentioned a possible snow event in the south on boxing day, anyone else seeing this?

not in Wales Jay - doesn't seem to be any precip around that day - or certainly very little and any about will be of rain - according to latest GFS

 

storm over Wales and the rest of the UK is looking to obliterate us come next friday - GFS is stubbornly keeping the track of it on a very dangerous course

 

will it stay just as is progged - or like previous storms veer a little further north! - hope it goes north - could do alot of damage!

 

Posted Image

Edited by andymusic
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Sleet shower driving through Lampeter at 2100

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Lots of hail showers here! Festive!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...