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Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Still some more wintry type showers right though this evening

Edited by TonyH
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

looks like Tony picked up the best out of this one - Euro 4 seemed to pick that up, more mid-wales - we've had rain, snizzle, slight sleet, odd wet snow flake!

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Theres 2 bands of ppn...I thought it was all over until I seen the radar...started snow well over an hour ago here then back to sleet...snowing heavier again.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

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Posted
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)

Has been snowing properly here now for about half an hour - for about half an hour prior to that it was oscillating between rain/sleet/snow. We've got a covering now on all surfaces, including roads, not much about 1cm and snowing moderately at the moment, but the main band looks like it is almost past now and then it will just be the odd shower. 

 

Temp is 1.2c and dp is -1.5c.

Edited by mikeocarroll
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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

Got some sleet and snow about half an hour ago, nothing settling at our level.  Still, I feel seasonally christmassified and have put all the twinkly fairy lights on.  Tree gets dressed Saturday night - husband out, sherry uncorked, Dean, Bing and Frank on the player.....

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Has the trough pushed in faster than expected?

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Has the trough pushed in faster than expected?

euro 4 had the wintry activity further into mid-wales + trough seemed to break up further south - think it's about right - anything left hitting the midlands in the next few hours - just had another rain shower - even pen y fan looks wet! EDIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - latest Pen Y Fan webcam pic looks alot whiter now - http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Penyfan/webcams/latest

 

Posted Image

 

next wintry event possibly as soon as sunday now and xmas eve is still showing potential too

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

XMAS DAY - possible snow in WALES

 

Posted Image

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Has the trough pushed in faster than expected?

No smack on met predictions ,just hope we can catch a few more showers overnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

No smack on met predictions ,just hope we can catch a few more showers overnight.

Oh I was only questioning because the Euro4 has PPN at 6pm, but looking at the radar suggests that this is not correct:

Posted Image

And Yep its what I was thinking maybe a better chance for low lying areas too as temperatures fall.

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Sleet/snow on the coast of South Wales now looking at the radar:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

 

Temp:3.5C DP: 2C

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Oh I was only questioning because the Euro4 has PPN at 6pm, but looking at the radar suggests that this my not be correct:

Posted Image

And Yep its what I was thinking maybe a better chance for low lying areas too as temperatures fall.

So judging by the image there do we think there may be further developments as the evening goes on? Because if not then I would say that looks way off tbh !? Hope you don't mind me gate crashing your thread lol!
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

So judging by the image there do we think there may be further developments as the evening goes on? Because if not then I would say that looks way off tbh !? Hope you don't mind me gate crashing your thread lol!

No probs, guests are welcome! No I dont see it, just showers from now on...NAE also had a similar PPN rate at that time too:

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Devon and Cornwall looks good for further showers not sure about Wales .

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

So judging by the image there do we think there may be further developments as the evening goes on? Because if not then I would say that looks way off tbh !? Hope you don't mind me gate crashing your thread lol!

Just a scattering of showers coming mostly onto coasts this evening

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Posted
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft

Just saw the weather for coming week and its looking very very wet and very windy on times and tomorrow afternoon looks quite bad, doesn't sound as if there be much in the way of any snow until at least after xmas day, they did say maybe some sleet for xmas eve but mostly storms. Fab weather that ha ha. anyway its xmas so lets not worry about it.

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It was 2c here this morning with a thick covering of hail on all surfaces. I think it was hail but sometimes difficult to tell, looked more like snow on the car, but hail does seem to be more likely.

 

Further heavy showers early this afternoon, including some further heavy hail here, with heavy rain at sea level.

 

There may have been some snow mixed in, but for the most part it was rain/hail.

 

Dry now with a very real chance of very icy conditions overnight. Careful out there no one wants to prang their car this time of year.

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Been shopping in Lampeter some of the cars parked there had a good covering of 1cm on them of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL

Just started raining here again, had a few hail showers through the day with the odd bit of sleet in

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

2C and DP of 0.5C and raining :(

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Sunday sees the uppers drop near -5C again for Cardiff, if there is any PPN around it could be wintry especially for higher ground:

Posted ImagePosted Image

In a flow like that (similar to today/yesterday), little features could pop up, which may bring more interest, so its definitely the next day to watch for the white stuff!

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)

Still about 1cm of snow lying here this morning, should be first official snow lying day of the winter for this location. Did get to about 2cm yesterday evening but is slowly but steadily melting away (current temp 1.6c) and I expect will disappear quite rapidly after sunrise.

 

Could be some more brief snow opportunities over the next week or so, as Andy highlights via the GFS snow charts. GFS seems to be more keen than ECM though.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Location: Swansea

Hello, very interesting thread. Newbie and guest here. Im in Swansea. Wet and windy at the moment but clearing. Im hoping someone could explain (in simple terms, im very new to this) what sort of storm and or snow we can expect xmas eve? Currently my new house has only felting on it and im a tad concerned!

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Posted
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)
  • Location: Uplands, Swansea (30m asl)

Hello, very interesting thread. Newbie and guest here. Im in Swansea. Wet and windy at the moment but clearing. Im hoping someone could explain (in simple terms, im very new to this) what sort of storm and or snow we can expect xmas eve? Currently my new house has only felting on it and im a tad concerned!

 

Welcome to the thread! The answer is that it's very much "up in the air" at the moment, with the type of weather we have at the moment - low pressure systems developing and being pushed across or the north of the UK - it is very difficult to predict exactly when and where the wind and rain will be strongest.

 

According to the GFS weather model, Christmas Eve is windy, perhaps gale force winds, but not really anything out of the ordinary:

 

Posted Image

 

This chart shows the current predicted windspeeds, as you can see around 40mph in the Swansea area which I think is a gale, but which is unlikley to do much harm.

 

The ECM model has a different track of low pressure, but I think the outcome for wind would be similar.

 

However, with either model, if they have the track of the pressure system wrong, and it is further south than expected, then it could be a severe windstorm. That is unlikely but possible.

 

As for snow, if the GFS model is correct, then there is a chance of some snow on Christmas morning for higher ground in Mid Wales, and it is possible that there may be some sleetiness or wet snow down in Swansea, but it's still too far away to have any confidence about this, and if the ECM model is correct then chances are even slimmer. The GFS snow risk chart for Christmas morning is below:

 

Posted Image

 

You can view the charts yourself if you go to the Netweather homepage and click on the Chart Viewer. The pressure charts require some interpretation, which you can learn about in the learning section of the forum, but the wind speed, rainfall and snow risk charts are pretty self-explanatory.

Edited by mikeocarroll
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