Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[Bobby]

Time to batten down the hatches over the next 2 weeks it seems, going to get pretty stormy with plenty of heavy rain. Will take a miracle to get a white Christmas from here I think. Charts look pretty similar to last December actually.

An angry looking Atlantic indeedy.

[welshgritter]

Grumpy welsh Gritter.... Hope maddens right about January!!!

[andymusic]

gfs 18z - straws to grasp - possible trend to keep an eye on - FI candy - progressively colder and colder pm incursions turning wintry starting around xmas eve going into boxing day and beyond! - joe b and piers and madden all seeing this sometime ago!

Edited December 12, 2013 by andymusic

[Panayiotis]

Mild night at 10C with showers here, more autumn like than December!

We are now at the start of the mobile pattern of low pressure after low pressure =Tm air, strong winds and rain followed a shorter spell of moderate winds, Pm air with clear skies and showers, some of which maybe wintry especially on higher ground. This should be the dominating pattern over the next 2 weeks...

[Blackjack]

Frankly I’m still optimistic of some cold weather around the festive period as up until a few days ago, all that was showing was a big fat Euro High to sit there forever and a day. The mild lovers on the models thread were adamant that this was the case.

 

Now it looks like we're in for a pattern change, the grey, still, dross is being pushed away and the high over Europe is going to take a battering. All to play for and the last 2 weeks of model watching has made me realise that to look past 4-5 days and be certain of the weather outcome is foolish.

 

 

 

[keithlucky]

GFS is dreaming of a white Christmas GFS put this chart in to wind us up

Edited December 13, 2013 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

potential TREND still showing for xmas from the GFS - warning though - runs seem to be outliers, so have to be taken with caution - but the GFS has a good track record at picking up trends in the low resolution - so something to watch

 

[J10]

Synoptically this December has little resemblance to last December, and this is projected to continue into the rest of the month.

 

This December is far more zonal so while heavy rain is forecast at times going forward, at least there is the opportunity for the heavy rain to clear away to the east. Last year was different the heavy rain come and stuck due to High Pressure over Scandinavia and a more blocked pattern.

 

A few examples

 

Charts 14 Dec 00Hz

 

Charts 17 Dec 00Hz

 

Charts 21 Dec 00Hz

 

It does appear though that rainfall is very much happening in spells, the first half of November was very wet, the 2nd half of November and first half of December was dry/very dry, and the 2nd half of December may well be wet again.

Edited December 13, 2013 by J10

[andymusic]

well look what we have here again - xmas eve - gfs 12z - def trend setting up

 

 

very very stormy too - blizzard type conditions from this sort of set up!

 

Edited December 13, 2013 by andymusic

[marclt]

Bit too far away to get excited about just yet?!

[Bobby]

Will need a miracle to see anything wintry away from mountain tops in that synoptic setup on the GFS Christmas charts. Any kind of white Christmas looks to be needing a miracle I think!

 

Looks like a very wet week or so to come, 100mm+ for parts of Wales.

 

Edited December 13, 2013 by Bobby

[J10]

Will need a miracle to see anything wintry away from mountain tops in that synoptic setup on the GFS Christmas charts. Any kind of white Christmas looks to be needing a miracle I think!

 

Looks like a very wet week or so to come, 100mm+ for parts of Wales.

 

 

Would make up for the less than an inch of rain over the past month.

 

If it comes off. Those charts notoriously overstate rainfall.

Edited December 13, 2013 by J10

[andymusic]

really nasty looking storm for next week on the gfs 18z

 

 

CRIKEY - Wales gets obliterated!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

+ IT TURNS WINTRY - defo blizzards if that track comes off

 

 

obviously the exact track of this storm won't be confirmed until nearer the time - but that looks horrific for us!

 

not that far away in weather terms either - something's brewing here

 

Edited December 13, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

really nasty looking storm for next week on the gfs 18z

 

 

CRIKEY - Wales gets obliterated!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Lol Andy hopefully storm is further north than shown.

Edited December 13, 2013 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Lol Andy hopefully storm is further north than shown.

 totally - we'd rather not have that sort of destructive force coming through - it could be very dangerous - but - lots of potential in the models now - cold pm air really pushing our way - could be an interesting few weeks of weather watching + further dev out in FI for a blocking high as we go into the new year!

[Panayiotis]

Im expecting the PFJ to shift south even further but hopefully these lows dont look as vicious nearer to the date! 

[keithlucky]

Happened many times over the years another xmas washout

Edited December 14, 2013 by keithlucky

[marclt]

Looks extremely windy on Wednesday night/Thursday with colder air behind.

[andymusic]

here's snow on the pyramids!!!!!!!!!!! weird

 

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - could well see some fast moving wintry showers this thursday - definitely gonna feel bitter in the north westerly/westerly wind

 

[keithlucky]

gfs 12z - could well see some fast moving wintry showers this thursday - definitely gonna feel bitter in the north westerly/westerly wind

 

Yes cannot show images wintry showers on the 19th of December

[A_T]

Yes cannot show images wintry showers on the 19th of December

 

[andymusic]

gfs 18z - low res - xmas day latest - and very stormy too!!!!

 

 

Edited December 15, 2013 by andymusic

[andymusic]

wintry - thursday

 

 

xmas eve now

 

 

gfs trending colder post xmas - a number of model runs showing this now

Edited December 16, 2013 by andymusic

[andymusic]

gfs 18z continues the stormy and colder post xmas theme again

 

thursday this week still looking good for some wintriness also!

 

this for xmas day - hold onto your prezzies

 

Edited December 16, 2013 by andymusic