Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[whiskers]

Just watched Gavin partridge forecast for the lead up to xmas,wow if that came off I would be one happy bunny.Fingers crossed. On another note lidl have good weather stations coming in,good xmas pressie especially if we have snow!

[Panayiotis]

PPN developed out of nowhere for S Wales, hopefully dew points and temperatures can drop because the above air profile is ideal for snow....

Edited December 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[andymusic]

PPN developed out of nowhere for S Wales, hopefully dew points and temperatures can drop because the above air profile is ideal for snow....

 

 

 

yes some nice streamers about - let's see what they can do - so far some specks of rain - but who knows!

Edited December 5, 2013 by J10
to correct quote

[Panayiotis]

@Andy Well dew points are expected to drop at or below freezing in the early morning so if the PPN is still around it will more than likely fall as snow:

Edited December 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[J10]

A few showers around here, but rain and cold rain at that.

 

Not expecting any wintriness here tonight.

[andymusic]

MILD MILD MILD and a benign outlook - I think we've all got to remember that we have been spoilt these past few years with some great "easily" obtained snowy and cold set ups in winter - this year I think it's gonna need a bit of patience (just like in many past winters) - and we may still get our cold and snowy "XMAS PRESENT" just after xmas and into January 2014 - just enjoy the lower heating bills for now lol

[TonyH]

Well that potential cold snap well and truly failed to materialise! No lower than 5c last night (well above average) and max 9c, Milford Haven more definitely mild at max 11.8c today.

[whiskers]

Obviously nothing good happening,soooo quiet everywhere,plz around xmas at least be cold !

[whiskers]

Hello,is there anybody there?

[freeze for all]

Hello,is there anybody there?

There's nobody here everyone is out getting their bbq's ready for the mild spell which is supposed to last a few weeks!!! I've heard it all b4 and b4 u know it there's an Arctic blast worse than anything we've ever known on the way lol. The weather will do what it will just sit back and enjoy the torture lol Edited December 8, 2013 by J10

[J10]

Hello,is there anybody there?

 

We are still here, but the charts continue be some of the worst for cold and snowy weather for a very long time, it is one thing mild weather, but this type of setup can be hard to get out of.

 

The good news is cheaper heating bills, and the jet being further north in association to this looks at the moment that the heaviest of the rain will be further north over Scotland and Northern England, not so good for those areas but better for us.

 

The bad news for me is that my forecast of 4.0c in the December CET comp looks woefully low at the moment.

 

In all seriousness the weather could be a lot worse, remember the flooding in December 12, but it is not terribly exciting at the moment.

Edited December 9, 2013 by J10
It was meant to be Scotland not Scandinavia

[jenko]

Any chance of us getting the tail end of what the states have just had dumped there ?

[J10]

Any chance of us getting the tail end of what the states have just had dumped there ?

No

[andymusic]

models now starting to show possible changes as we head nearer xmas - possible "cold" zonal outbreaks or - right into FI land - and somehow predicted by Joe B and other long range forecasters - a european high with atlantic undercutting lows - possibly providing widespread snow for xmas as the temps drop - let's see where the models decide to take us in the coming couple of days!

[jenko]

Any idea for the 20,21,22, of December what the forecast maybe

[TonyH]

Probably quite mild with rain at times.

[snefnug]

3.5 and beautiful sun in Glyn Ceiriog this morning -  2.5 and heavy cold fog Oswestry most of the day - just coming up to about 5 degrees now but feels colder.  Have to say love crisp (with or without fog) mornings - feels almost festive!

[Panayiotis]

 Moderate fog for most of the day here in Cardiff with it clearing as the sun went down, so a high of 6.5C. With 8C uppers one at face value would think it would be mild, but its average at best! If its not cold and snowy for winter, this dry and foggy setup is my preffered choice but we all know that this is going to change after the 13th, with rain and wind becoming the main agenda!

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - chucks everything at us - seems changes from this benign high pressure are about to hit - storms, wind, rain - lots of wind - oh did i mention it's gonna be WINDY - and possibly cold enough for some wintry stuff too - Ireland may get a fair bit of wintriness out of this - we could too!

[J10]

Actually felt quite warm in the sun here today*, not as at all December like.

 

*Mixtures of hazy sun and sunny intervals

Edited December 11, 2013 by J10

[keithlucky]

Tony did you get a ground frost last night had a grass frost reached low of 3c last night.

Edited December 11, 2013 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

Yes a touch of ground frost here this morning Keith, air min +2.2c

[andymusic]

James Madden in the Daily Express (umm over dramatization) - at it again

 

"Long-range forecasting bodies say there is a chance much of the UK could be hit by a crippling big freeze with widespread snow likely.

Long range forecasts show that a high pressure ‘blocking system’ drawing cold air in from the Arctic will wreak havoc with our weather, generating prolonged spells colder than in Iceland, Norway and Sweden and even parts of the Arctic region.

Long-range forecaster James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: “An exceptionally prolonged period of widespread cold is highly likely to develop throughout this winter and last into next spring.

“It will be accompanied by snow drifts of several feet and long-lasting snow accumulations on a widespread scale.

“This period of snow and cold is likely to result in an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern times.

“A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more prolonged scale in terms of overall duration.â€

He warned of copious snowfall across the UK with “major disruption†likely on the transport networks.

He said: “The winter of 2013/14 is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow amounts for many parts of the UK.

“There is also a high-risk scenario that we will experience a scenario similar to December 2010 or much worse at times (coldest December in 100 years), especially during the January 2014 period. “This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors factors such as ocean and jet-stream behaviour.

“This is likely to produce major disruption to the public transport network and school closures on a prolific scale, due to the adverse weather conditions that we are likely to experience in terms of consistent cold and major snow episodes, that will consist of snow drifts of several feet in depth.â€

 

 

who knows - maybe he'll be laughing at us as we end up struggling through the "FEET" of snow! - but to be honest his 90 days of "The Big Freeze" has now shrunk to 30 - 45 days - so we shall have to see!

 

here's an odd one - snow in Istanbul

Edited December 11, 2013 by andymusic

[J10]

James Madden in the Daily Express (umm over dramatization) - at it again

 

"Long-range forecasting bodies say there is a chance much of the UK could be hit by a crippling big freeze with widespread snow likely.

Long range forecasts show that a high pressure ‘blocking system’ drawing cold air in from the Arctic will wreak havoc with our weather, generating prolonged spells colder than in Iceland, Norway and Sweden and even parts of the Arctic region.

Long-range forecaster James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: “An exceptionally prolonged period of widespread cold is highly likely to develop throughout this winter and last into next spring.

“It will be accompanied by snow drifts of several feet and long-lasting snow accumulations on a widespread scale.

“This period of snow and cold is likely to result in an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern times.

“A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more prolonged scale in terms of overall duration.â€

He warned of copious snowfall across the UK with “major disruption†likely on the transport networks.

He said: “The winter of 2013/14 is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow amounts for many parts of the UK.

“There is also a high-risk scenario that we will experience a scenario similar to December 2010 or much worse at times (coldest December in 100 years), especially during the January 2014 period. “This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors factors such as ocean and jet-stream behaviour.

“This is likely to produce major disruption to the public transport network and school closures on a prolific scale, due to the adverse weather conditions that we are likely to experience in terms of consistent cold and major snow episodes, that will consist of snow drifts of several feet in depth.â€

 

 

who knows - maybe he'll be laughing at us as we end up struggling through the "FEET" of snow! - but to be honest his 90 days of "The Big Freeze" has now shrunk to 30 - 45 days - so we shall have to see!

 

Winter's over then.

[Panayiotis]

1.7C with light fog here in Cardiff at 1am. Expecting cloud to roll in later so the temperature should rise, quite an inversion though with 8C uppers.