Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[Snowyowl9]

it's all hanging in the balance! But today has been cold and grey.  I'm just happy it's not cold and raining!

Yes at least its dried up...

[J10]

The lack of posts today / this evening are an indication that things havn't gone that well for snow lovers.

With the low pressure being even further east, there was always a chance of this happening. This does really reduce the risk of snow.

 

North Wales may still do well out of this with colder air here, however for South Wales there is the chance of back edge snow on Thursday night as the cold front edges south, hilly areas as ever most favoured.

[whiskers]

C'mon snow,I've trimmed up I just need some proper weather,even coming on here seeing people getting excited is great,but it's so quiet no ramping no xmas spirit, plz to the gods above if your saving it for xmas then great,but plz show us some signs,something to get excited about!

[mikeocarroll]

I think the lack of ramping is good - it shows that Wales thread posters at least are less willing than previously to be led down the garden path whenever models show a slight hint of snow 10 days down the line (and those same models being reliable for 5 days at best).

 

I agree with Jackone, there is a possibility of a couple of cm of back edge snow on high ground in Wales on Thurs night (I'd expect a bit here) and then some light snow flurries, perhaps a dustiing for coastal areas (maybe a couple of cm for northern coasts) and a few flakes in the air and feeling cold inland on Friday morning.

 

Looking ahead, the outlook remains far from standard zonal (and still remarkably dry), but the unfortunate fact for us coldies is that only a few specific synoptic set-ups bring lasting snow and cold to the UK, whereas a great many set-ups bring either dry or rain. On the plus side this is what keeps things interesting. If snow was guaranteed then it wouldn't be exciting. So here's to another winter of model and (hopefully) lamppost watching.  

[Blackjack]

You just can't make it up. Guys on the model thread talking up the Beast from the East and 62/63. Haven't we been here before..... about 12 months ago.

[welshwizard]

the guys in the mad model thread be back on the Prozac by xmas eve ha ha. they all for very very cold winter but by this time tommor it show wet mild atlantic and they be needing the Prozac. look out window for me and as long as its not raining and windy I be happy.

[andymusic]

some rumblings of an easterly - and Atlantic undercutting in the west - mmmmmmmmmmmmmm - sounds interesting

 

this from the met - matt hugo

 

The current UKMO view is for a colder set-up to dominate again into the 10-15d trend period, with more progressive solutions in a minority. Possible net result is UK on western bounds of blocking with 'battleground' style issues in west (Wales) thanks to periodic Atlantic incursions. Latest EC32 from yesterday is an interesting one; it also indicates a signal by Christmas for negative temp anomalies & HP to N; LP to S/SW, but the clusters do show a wide raft of potential outcomes. Anyway, very early days but tentative signs for something more blocked a bit further down the December diary.

[Blackjack]

Fergie has reiterated on the model thread

"UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter."

So a cold snap for some. Then some mild for some, not for all. Then the possibility growing of some cold from the East. As usual it comes with the caveat "Remember THAT ECM 12 months ago"

[J10]

Yes i dont want this winter to be to harsh because the NHS at breaking point and Fuel companies raising fuel prices ,only the poor and the old will suffer ,with the question they ask themselves do i feed myself or do i turn the fire on?

 

The 12Hz GFS into Medium Long Range today is a stunner for those who want to turn their heating off for the next few weeks.

[Blackjack]

Mild lovers are going loopy over tonight's ECM...... Just like cold lovers did over the ECM last year..........

[andymusic]

The 12Hz GFS into Medium Long Range today is a stunner for those who want to turn their heating off for the next few weeks.

 yep - blowtorch - double figure temps till at least beyond mid month - especially west wales - bbq time again lol! - except of course our blip of a cold snap thursday/friday!

Edited December 3, 2013 by andymusic

[J10]

 yep - blowtorch - double figure temps till at least beyond mid month - especially west wales - bbq time again lol! - except of course our blip of a cold snap thursday/friday!

 

I wish I'd gone for a mild one in the prediction game, saying that if I did, the snowploughs would be on their way out.

[andymusic]

I wish I'd gone for a mild one in the prediction game, saying that if I did, the snowploughs would be on their way out.

 update - and the blip of a cold snap for Wales has all but gone altogether now - ah well - there's always next time - plus - that high pressure over europe looks mega strong - if it sets up in the wrong place - could be there for sometime - and we'll be on the mild side of it in the west!

[Carl46Wrexham]

 update - and the blip of a cold snap for Wales has all but gone altogether now - ah well - there's always next time - plus - that high pressure over europe looks mega strong - if it sets up in the wrong place - could be there for sometime - and we'll be on the mild side of it in the west!

 

Pleeeeeeeeease...i feel ill as it is! Don't make me go reaching for the upchuck bucket!

[welshwizard]

one thing good is not so much gas to be used ha ha, and how many times have we seen these charts show one thing then 4 days later a complete switch. would not surprise me if in say one week the charts show freezing cold on the way here.

[TonyH]

Grateful of saving money in these hard times!

[andymusic]

further Joe B tweet update - Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas

 

so - a few forecasters now bringing this idea up - sounds like a normal sort of run up to xmas then - often around the festive day itself or just after (boxing day sometimes even) we've switched over to cold and snow - one to keep an eye on - otherwise fairly mundane couple of weeks to come for us - if xmas is the target - we should start to see the models getting to grips with this towards the end of next week - hopefully (once the tropical temps have gone through lol)!

Edited December 4, 2013 by andymusic

[Bobby]

Not much of a cold spell, no snow but at least the grey dull murk has gone!

[TonyH]

Working for me

[snefnug]

ooh good, it's back. (sorry - cross post from Midlands Regional- couldn't find us in the regional lists for a bit)

[snefnug]

Crikey!  Cricket echos in here.  Perhaps we should pop back every half and hour or so to see if it's still breathing?

[Panayiotis]

Snowing now for Capel Curig!

 

[J10]

Looking at the following charts, this cold spell is much more potent than the one a week or so back.

 

However last time we were in the sweet spot, this time the cold is much further east, saying that this event is cold enough to give some snow. the Big problem as things stand is that High Presure is too close to us which will severely reduce showery potential.

 

GFS 7.JPG

 

GFS 6.JPG

 

If there was a westward shift of 200 miles, we would really be in business, but a shift the other way would quickly make this a non event.

 

Tonight's FAX not as good as last nights, but lets see what tomorrow brings.

 

Thic chart shows how far east the pattern pushed in reality, however many across the UK including parts of North Wales would wish it pushed even further east and out of harms way.

 

[gareth moo]

Going to get the lawn mower back out!

[Panayiotis]

It has brought colder air than the last spell looking at the uppers for Friday; -5C to -7C across Wales but it only hangs around for a brief amount of time:

Edited December 5, 2013 by Panayiotis