Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[whiskers]

Come on guys,let's have some enthusiasm on here,I feel like everyone's given up before we've started,we need some major snow dancing going on.

[J10]

Having a quick look ahead to next week. Based on GFS 12Hz run.

 

850Hpa Temps -7c to -8c at its coldest.

 

Wind Direction at time of coldest Air North to North Easterly.

Thickness 516-518m and 1285-1290m

 

These conditions are quite conducive to some overnight snow, providing those exact conditions were maintained, but the NE wind is the wrong direction for a Pembrokeshire Dangler which does limit precipitation chances for Southern and Western areas, with the possible exception of Western Pembs.

 

GFS Next Wednesday 2.JPG

 

As ever it will be interesting to see what actually happens next week

 

Latest update

 

According to 06Hz (GFS)

850HPa -6c

dam 519-522

Thickness 1293-1296m

 

According to 06Hz (NAE)

850HPa -6c (generally) to -7c (NE Wales)

dam 520-524

Thickness sub 1300m

 

13111906_2_1706.gif

 

 

Looking at the GFS this afternoon, this is forecast to be more potent in general than the last Northerly which gave some snow in places a week or so back.

For Wales the comparative figures are 850Hpa are sub -8c across Wales, Thickness levels are 515-520 dam, and 1285-1290m

 

 

So for Wales the values are similar to what was forecast a while out, which eventually got toned down a bit by the time of the event happening.

Even though the Northerly itself is more potent, Wales is currently not forecast to tap into the coldest air.

 

So for Wales to get in on the action we would like the coldest air to be a bit further west, and ECM does look a cleaner outcome for us.

 

A lot can go wrong but very much something to keep an eye out for.

Edited November 29, 2013 by J10

[andymusic]

GFS 18z throws us another SNOW bone come saturday - (gfs playing around with options right now as per usual this far out)

 

 

 

 

At 228 we have a north easterly developing (FI but interesting none the less - Steve Murr hinting at this at the mo!)

 

 

then a major easterly later in FI - could this be a new trend? mmmmmmmm - 18z not reliable - need more runs!

Edited November 29, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Met office leaning to colder than average winter?http://t.co/WAzu3F7rYl

[J10]

Looking at the GFS this afternoon, this is forecast to be more potent in general than the last Northerly which gave some snow in places a week or so back.

For Wales the comparative figures are 850Hpa are sub -8c across Wales, Thickness levels are 515-520 dam, and 1285-1290m

 

GFS Next Week.JPG

 

So for Wales the values are similar to what was forecast a while out, which eventually got toned down a bit by the time of the event happening.

Even though the Northerly itself is more potent, Wales is currently not forecast to tap into the coldest air.

 

So for Wales to get in on the action we would like the coldest air to be a bit further west, and ECM does look a cleaner outcome for us.

 

A lot can go wrong but very much something to keep an eye out for.

 

Tonight's GFS edges the cold air to the east, so we never get the cold air, the -5c air only briefly fringing the far NE of Wales, so a non event.

 

Conversely the ECM keeps the Northerly on, with -10c getting in across much of Wales. but even here pressure is quite high of Western areas, mitigating against showery activity.

[J10]

By the way the new year of the CET comp starts in December, so let's get the entries in tonight before the deadline.

[keithlucky]

Tonight's GFS edges the cold air to the east, so we never get the cold air, the -5c air only briefly fringing the far NE of Wales, so a non event.

 

Conversely the ECM keeps the Northerly on, with -10c getting in across much of Wales. but even here pressure is quite high of Western areas, mitigating against showery activity.

Saying that J1 a pretty cold wintry fax chart for Thursday -Friday

[andymusic]

cold and snow back on the cards as from thursday into friday - sooner - if the gfs 6z has it's way - Wales will see alot of the white stuff

 

 

plenty of wintry stuff on these charts

 

 

snow levels for this coming saturday for Wales

 

 

way out in FI - scandi/siberian high - let the games begin - atlantic against the cold easterly - dumpings of potential snow abound

Edited December 1, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Yes Andy potential there lets keep a eye on the HP to the west ,hopefully it will stay  west than its shown on latest fax to allow a streamer to get going.

[andymusic]

Yes Andy potential there lets keep a eye on the HP to the west ,hopefully it will stay  west than its shown on latest fax to allow a streamer to get going.

 

 

I would have thought it's fairly locked in now being at around 96 - 120 - obviously snow amounts will be decided a little closer to the time - but overall - looking good for Wales (if you like snow)

[keithlucky]

I would have thought it's fairly locked in now being at around 96 - 120 - obviously snow amounts will be decided a little closer to the time - but overall - looking good for Wales (if you like snow)

Talking about snow amounts lol http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/138_35.gif nice if it came off lol.

[J10]

Tonight's GFS edges the cold air to the east, so we never get the cold air, the -5c air only briefly fringing the far NE of Wales, so a non event.

 

Conversely the ECM keeps the Northerly on, with -10c getting in across much of Wales. but even here pressure is quite high of Western areas, mitigating against showery activity.

 

Today's GFS moves closer to ECM, good news. Sub -10c 850HPA is very condicive for snow. Things can easily go wrong but a lot of potential in current charts.

[Snowyowl9]

A nice short lived NW-ly at the end of the week,looks colder to November`s cold NW-ly should see some snow showers if it stays on track then the high comes in to kill any showers off then should see the first air frosts.

Been looking for that link KeithLucky thanks...

[andymusic]

GFS 12z not so good as the 6z - we'll have to see what the ECM and UKMO think now! - as always - these events have a habit of toing and froing between good/bad/ugly before being decided a short time before they actually occur

 

edit:- UKMO not so good today either - high pressure further east than we'd like it - mmmmmmmm

 

wait for ECM now - todays 12zs backtracking at the mo!

Edited December 1, 2013 by andymusic

[J10]

There is a hint of things being a bit too far east, so while it is cold, High Pressure being nearby kills off any showery potential. GFS while better than yesterday, has certainly backed off a bit.

 

ECM 12Hz is still better than the others, and would like to see the Friday 00Hz position, to see if there would be any potential Friday am, as by 12HZ things are too far east, cold yes, but largely dry.

[keithlucky]

There is a hint of things being a bit too far east, so while it is cold, High Pressure being nearby kills off any showery potential. GFS while better than yesterday, has certainly backed off a bit.

 

ECM 12Hz is still better than the others, and would like to see the Friday 00Hz position, to see if there would be any potential Friday am, as by 12HZ things are too far east, cold yes, but largely dry.

Yes agree i"m hoping J1 that we don"t see the classic repeated the only area to get snow from this cold snap is North and N East of UK ,still time hopefully to see HP further west ,tonight fax will be interesting to see what the met think.

Edited December 1, 2013 by keithlucky

[A_T]

Countryfile seemed to think we wouldn't get much in the way of snow.

[keithlucky]

Countryfile seemed to think we wouldn't get much in the way of snow.

Long way to go yet things can and will change by Thursday don"t give up yet .

[andymusic]

gfs 18z - back on track - fillpy floppy - typical of models not really sure - where the high/low border will be and where snow/rain - or no precip will be - this one will go down to the wire closer to the day

 

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by andymusic

[blackrose73]

Here we go again. Every year we put ourselves through this rollercoaster! We must be mad :-)

[J10]

Looking at the following charts, this cold spell is much more potent than the one a week or so back.

 

However last time we were in the sweet spot, this time the cold is much further east, saying that this event is cold enough to give some snow. the Big problem as things stand is that High Presure is too close to us which will severely reduce showery potential.

 

 

 

If there was a westward shift of 200 miles, we would really be in business, but a shift the other way would quickly make this a non event.

 

Tonight's FAX not as good as last nights, but lets see what tomorrow brings.

Edited December 1, 2013 by J10

[Panayiotis]

Looking at the following charts, this cold spell is much more potent than the one a week or so back.

 

However last time we were in the sweet spot, this time the cold is much further east, saying that this event is cold enough to give some snow. the Big problem as things stand is that High Presure is too close to us which will severely reduce showery potential.

 

GFS 7.JPG

 

GFS 6.JPG

 

If there was a westward shift of 200 miles, we would really be in business, but a shift the other way would quickly make this a non event.

 

Tonight's FAX not as good as last nights, but lets see what tomorrow brings.

The joys of model watching!

[Snowyowl9]

A nice short lived NW-ly at the end of the week.

It has been shortened...Look further out then.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

[andymusic]

well the cold snap we may get thursday/friday - may well be just that now - mutterings abound at where we go next - seems weather and temp influences from the canaries may well be on the cards next week - after that - mutterings from a number of sources that a large scandi/russian high may begin to advect cold back towards the uk - this looks more likely on the final days running up till xmas and beyond!

 

edit:- GFS 12z still a chance of some back edge snow thursday afternoon/evening for some in Wales

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by andymusic

[marclt]

it's all hanging in the balance! But today has been cold and grey.  I'm just happy it's not cold and raining!