Far North of England Regional Discussion 28/10/13 ------ïƒ

[Summer Sun]

yep but the temp can drop under a shower and with -4/-6 uppers depending on which model you look at its still possible, much depends on the dp temp i would of thought, any idea what these will be

 

The current DP forecast for Sunday is around 2c between 6am and 6pm then falling to around 0c between 6pm and 6am Monday

[Boro Snow]

The current DP forecast for Sunday is around 2c between 6am and 6pm then falling to around 0c between 6pm and 6am Monday

no chance then, never mind eyes to the strat thread then for jan 

[Cloud 10]

yep but the temp can drop under a shower and with -4/-6 uppers depending on which model you look at its still possible, much depends on the dp temp i would of thought, any idea what these will be

 

Dewpoints look good for Sunday morning and continue to drop through the day.

 

9am..  6pm..

[Summer Sun]

The dew points I posted were based on data from here in case anyone is wondering

[Boro Snow]

Dewpoints look good for Sunday morning and continue to drop through the day.

 

9am..Rmgfs458.gif  6pm..Rmgfs548.gif

thats better gav is just been evil anti cold again

[Summer Sun]

Wet and windy in Darlo tonight

 

Mild as well currently around 9c depending on which of the 2 stations are closest

[Boro Snow]

Wet and windy in Darlo tonight

 

Mild as well currently around 9c depending on which of the 2 stations are closest

yes ive got 9.3c, the wife wanted the heating on, er no put a jumper on its boiling outside tut tut 

[Summer Sun]

yes ive got 9.3c, the wife wanted the heating on, er no put a jumper on its boiling outside tut tut 

 

That makes the Pierremont one spot on then as it to is showing 9.3c

[Snowstorm1]

Cant see anything to be optimistic about snowfall for our region currently apart from a sleet shower if lucky the only small chance is that feature which may cross the UK on Christmas day but even that may be too far south for us but that's only my interest at the moment. Hope to be wrong though!

[Summer Sun]

This is the latest regional text update from the met office

 

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

 

Sunday, breezy and chilly with sunshine and blustery showers, wintry on hills.

 

Monday, bright start but becoming wet and very windy again.

 

Tuesday, windy and bright with scattered showers.

[Cloud 10]

The dew points I posted were based on data from here in case anyone is wondering

 

I wonder which model they get their data from?

[Summer Sun]

I wonder which model they get their data from?

 

All I can find is this: http://www.wunderground.com/about/data.asp

[Boro Snow]

That makes the Pierremont one spot on then as it to is showing 9.3c

yeah but that station is poor when it comes to temp when its sunny and goes way over the top with dp temps 

[Summer Sun]

yeah but that station is poor when it comes to temp when its sunny and goes way over the top with dp temps 

 

Aye it was right last night (for temperature) but it struggles a lot of the time

 

When we had the strong winds a few weeks back it had a top gust of around 35mph when infact it was just over 60mph

Edited December 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for heavy rain out now for the NE

 

Issued at: 1144 on Sat 21 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 1500 on Sat 21 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 2000 on Sat 21 Dec 2013

 

A band of heavy rain and squally winds will affect many northern and western areas of England, and much of Wales, through Saturday afternoon and evening. The public should be aware that travel conditions will become locally difficult for a time.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An active trough will run quickly northeast on Saturday afternoon, clearing from southern Scotland and Northumberland later in the evening. The main hazard will be heavy rainfall, this falling on saturated ground, which is likely to lead to some surface water flooding in places. Around 20 mm may fall in 3 or 4 hours towards the north of the warning area. Additionally, winds may gust above 50 mph, perhaps even nearer to 60 mph in a few exposed areas, leading to a lot of spray. Hail may be a further hazard on roads.

 

Covers

 

Darlington, Durham, Hartlepool, Stockton-on-Tees, Gateshead, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Sunderland, Newcastle upon Tyne, Northumberland, Redcar and Cleveland, Middlesbrough

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ne&fcTime=1387584000

[Boro Snow]

this weather just gets worse

 

TORNADO WATCH 2013/007 

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 10:10GMT on Saturday 21st December 2013 

Valid from/until: 10:10 - 22:00GMT on Saturday 21st December 2013 for the following regions 

Parts of (see map) 

TORNADO WATCH 

S Eire 

Wales 

IoM 

Much of England 

THREATS 

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 65mph; hail 10-15mm diamter; CG lightning 

DISCUSSION 

An unstable west-southwestely flow exists across much of the area now, although the south-eastern portion is currently being influeced by a waving frontal system. This feature will move away to the north-east early this afternoon. Following on, a marked trough/comma cloud feature will move in from the west, and appears to be the prime focus for any severe weather. 

Backed winds ahead of this second featured will enhance low-level vorticity/shear, whilst deep lifting will support an area of convection/thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will mean organised storms are possible, perhaps including supercells, although a cluster of activity, perhaps with a quasi-linear element, will be more likely. 

The current convective activity close to NW England should move away soon, with the trough then following through later morning and this afternoon/early evening. The main threat will be strong wind gusts, but a few tornadoes are possible too, especially close to the top end of the trough, where surface flow will be most backed. This looks to be from S Eire through Wales and into N England. However, the risk area has been extended south too, as some models depict convection further south. 

Forecaster: RPK.

 

https://scontent-b-a...888995339_n.jpg

[damianslaw]

Too much weather at the moment! - fast moving systems, trough development and disruption galore... all very hard to pin down where the heaviest precipitation and strongest winds are likely to form.

 

Its been a long time since we have been in such a volatile situation, indeed not since this time last year, but unlike last christmas, we have a much colder arctic which is clashes with a very warm mid atlantic hence the low pressure systems are deeper, the warm and cold sectors more pronounced and much more fast moving...

 

There is a very good chance of a wintry surprise come Christmas Day, especially if we see any small trough features develop in the polar flow. We will have the 528 dam air and in heavy precipitation watch evaporative cooling take hold and bring down the dewpoints.. quite similiar to conditions of early Dec 11, which gave numerous quite low level albeit transitory snowfalls. Higher ground looks like getting a pasting.

 

However, before we get to christmas day we have alot of wild winter weather ahead, further gales and severe gales, heavy rain, hailstorms, and snow for higher ground, with the sun absent - this is turning into a markedly dull spell, when was the last time we saw the sun!

 

So a stormy quite cold chrismas period ahead - very seasonal. I'm not complaining.

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for strong winds out now

 

Issued at: 1228 on Sat 21 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 0900 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 2359 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

 

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds, reaching southwestern areas during the first half of Monday, lasting well into Christmas Eve across many parts, easing from the south later. Further heavy rainfall will accompany the initial increase in winds. There is the likelihood of widespread gales, with gusts to around 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, west Wales, northwest England, as well as southern coasts of England. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, the greatest likelihood of these values being towards the northwest. Although many central and eastern areas of England should see lesser wind gusts, the combination of these winds with heavy rain and heavy holiday traffic may well increase impacts. The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds, and also the risk of some flooding due to the heavy rain. Please keep in touch with the forecasts and warnings, which are expected to be updated again on Sunday.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure will deepen rapidly as it passes just to the west and northwest of the UK later on Monday, ending up as an exceptionally deep feature. This will bring stormy conditions to parts of the UK on Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds likely along coastlines exposed to the south and west, but later perhaps more generally across parts of the north. There remains some uncertainty around the precise depth and track of this system, and hence the areas most likely to be affected by the strongest winds and heavy rain.

 

Covers

 

Durham, Northumberland, Darlington, Gateshead, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Newcastle upon Tyne, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Stockton-on-Tees, Sunderland, Redcar and Cleveland

 

http://www.metoffice...0&regionName=uk

 

Just had a look at the wind gusts for the region on the met office website and we don't get above 50mph still time for change but we may avoid the worst of the winds

Edited December 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Lightning strike causes major power cuts in Mickleton

 

A LIGHTNING strike caused power cuts for homes and businesses in a County Durham village this morning. Residents in Mickleton in Teesdale reported a thunder storm before a lightning bolt struck an electrical cable. David Hutchinson, who runs the village service station, said he thought the lightning had struck his business. He said: “There was a huge flash of light followed by a surge of electricity that fired all my network hubs. “It was so bright that I thought it had hit us, but actually it hit a bit further away. “There was a heavy storm with massive hail stones, and then the lighting and thunder. “We knew it was right above the village because there was no delay between the lightning and thunder. “Then, just four minutes later, the sun was shining.â€

 

Northern Powergrid said the power cuts, which are understood to have affected the whole village, were reported to them at around 10.15am, with engineers going straight to the scene. At 12.10pm they issued an update in which they expected the electricity supply to be restored at 12.27pm. But at 12.35pm they issued another update saying they did not know when full electricity would be restored. Mr Hutchinson said power had already been returned to his business and, thanks to a friend lending him a new network hub, he is open as normal, although is unable to process credit card payments. He said: “I am on standby now to go to other houses with my generator to provide some power for people’s freezers just in case electricity is not restored.â€

 

http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/10893729.Lightning_strike_causes_major_power_cuts_in_Mickleton/?ref=var_0

[Boro Snow]

Netweather's Santa shaker gives us (northern England) a 15% chance http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

 

Looking at the temps it looks marginal for snow at this stage low of 4c high of 5c the biggest risk of rain looks to be between 18:00 and 00:00

 

One thing the bookies will be nervous now after they lengthened the odds on a white Christmas to 10/1 in some parts

30% now on the santa shaker 

Edited December 21, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Summer Sun]

30% now on the santa shaker 

 

Aye Paul said the other day the chances had increased

 

If nothing else Wednesday looks cold at this stage

 

 

The current snow risk from Netweather for Darlo is 0% but again if its cloudy we could see some flakes falling

[Cloud 10]

Lightning strike causes major power cuts in Mickleton

 

A LIGHTNING strike caused power cuts for homes and businesses in a County Durham village this morning. Residents in Mickleton in Teesdale reported a thunder storm before a lightning bolt struck an electrical cable. David Hutchinson, who runs the village service station, said he thought the lightning had struck his business. He said: “There was a huge flash of light followed by a surge of electricity that fired all my network hubs. “It was so bright that I thought it had hit us, but actually it hit a bit further away. “There was a heavy storm with massive hail stones, and then the lighting and thunder. “We knew it was right above the village because there was no delay between the lightning and thunder. “Then, just four minutes later, the sun was shining.â€

 

Northern Powergrid said the power cuts, which are understood to have affected the whole village, were reported to them at around 10.15am, with engineers going straight to the scene. At 12.10pm they issued an update in which they expected the electricity supply to be restored at 12.27pm. But at 12.35pm they issued another update saying they did not know when full electricity would be restored. Mr Hutchinson said power had already been returned to his business and, thanks to a friend lending him a new network hub, he is open as normal, although is unable to process credit card payments. He said: “I am on standby now to go to other houses with my generator to provide some power for people’s freezers just in case electricity is not restored.â€

 

http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/10893729.Lightning_strike_causes_major_power_cuts_in_Mickleton/?ref=var_0

 

Looks to have been that small but intense shower which gave that lightning strike.

 

 

 

Might be a bit more lightning this evening as an active trough is spreading into the region.

[Cloud 10]

Sleet/snow shower here at the moment.

[Snowmaggedon]

Very wet and windy conditions here at the moment and it's very dark.

[Summer Sun]

Blue sky and sunshine over Darlo now after a very dull start