Monday's storm - into Europe.

[Tom D]

Language Warning I didn't swear in this one! I've just uploaded a video of the moment the squall line came through here. Hope it's turned out OK.

 

http://youtu.be/H-ZfBtS1KJE

Edited October 28, 2013 by Tom D

[ukpaul]

I agree, but given the blanket and in my opinion slightly OTT coverage from many media outlets over the weekend are you really surprised.

 

I too have spoken to people this morning claiming a non event, claiming the forecasters don't know what they are on about and how they never get it right.  All of these people live in the NW of England. The storm was never forecast to have a severe impact here, but when "joe public" switches on the TV and sees headline news on SKY predicting armageddon what are they supposed to think ?

 

I have tried to suggest it was never forecast to be that bad up here, but you then get "well it said so in the papers and on the telly" thrown back at you.

 

It has been a notable event for the S of England - within the warnings and advisories issued by the Met Office.

 

There is also the fact that many just read headlines and get no further; the Express and such are a disgrace, yes, but people don't help themselves by being incurious and just going for what a banner headline says.

[bobbydog]

I don't think the answer to that question is clear-cut- it depends on the statistical likelihood of them getting into trouble, given the conditions and their level of expertise, and how large a risk has to be before we consider it to be irresponsible.

 

Someone getting killed a few miles away is just one case and doesn't, in itself, give much information about the probabilities.  The surfers could be taking a 1 in 100 risk, which I would certainly see as unacceptably large, but then again they could be taking a 1 in 10,000 risk (which is not far above the risk of dying in a road accident) and the person who died could just have been very unlucky, or inexperienced/naive.  Until I have the stats at hand I don't feel it is fair to pass too strong a judgement.

 

The storm has been a non-event up here but I never expected any other outcome really- on my Facebook updates I made it very clear to others that I expected this to be a "south of England" event.  Most forecasting agencies including the Met Office also emphasised this but it seems that some of the general public got the wrong message, not helped by certain outlets issuing sensationalist stories about it.

 

ok, some sports and hobbies do have an element of risk, some higher than others. however, if prevailing conditions are more  hazardous than usual, as in this case with an amber weather warning, beaches and promenades closed etc, these people must be aware that they are placing themselves at a much higher level of risk and consequently, anyone who has to effect a rescue in those conditions

[karlos1983]

Language Warning I didn't swear in this one! I've just uploaded a video of the moment the squall line came through here. Hope it's turned out OK.

 

http://youtu.be/H-ZfBtS1KJE

Nice

[bobbydog]

This thread should be shut down now.

 

i'm sure it will soon but that's not your call.

[khodds]

Surely not shut down yet.... There's talk of another storm this weekend isn't there? Or has that one done a runner? Not checked latest output

[Snowyowl9]

Surely not shut down yet.... There's talk of another storm this weekend isn't there? Or has that one done a runner? Not checked latest output

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html

[Summer Sun]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html

 

UKMO has the centre less deep and further south

 

 

ECM is similar

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I've only just logged-in this morning, and therefore don't have a feel for the tone of discussion this morning, so I don't know how much Met-bashing has already occurred.  I thought, however, that I'd post the opinions of someone I know from another (non weather-related) forum.  While his post may appear to be obvious trolling, I know from experience that such comments are actually his genuine and strongly-held opinions:

 

 

Well I'm reporting from South Wales where they definitely told me there was going to be some serious weather, well all I will say is the storm that never was, talk about an anti climax, we must have some of the worlds worst weather people and I would say scrap our weather satellites as they don't work, get back to looking out of your window it's a far better and more accurate system.

 

 

 

Anybody got anything to add apart from "what a pillock"?

Edited October 28, 2013 by chrisbell-nottheforecaster

[Thundery wintry showers]

ok, some sports and hobbies do have an element of risk, some higher than others. however, if prevailing conditions are more  hazardous than usual, as in this case with an amber weather warning, beaches and promenades closed etc, these people must be aware that they are placing themselves at a much higher level of risk and consequently, anyone who has to effect a rescue in those conditions

Again, I'd say that it depends on how large the risk increase is- for instance a bout of windy weather with 30-40mph gusts is more hazardous than usual, but less so than the current conditions, which in turn are less so than those associated with the storm on the 16th October 1987.  There will come a point where the level of risk increase reaches the reckless category- it's just a case of defining where that is!

[TheToastPeople]

Was pretty eventful night here in Bedford, A dead tree fell over at work, My bedroom door slammed shut in the night. Then there where leaves everywhere. My friend just sent me this...

[cobbett]

I've only just logged-in this morning, and therefore don't have a feel for the tone of discussion this morning, so I don't know how much Met-bashing has already occurred.  I thought, however, that I'd post the opinions of someone I know from another (non weather-related) forum.  While his post may appear to be obvious trolling, I know from experience that such comments are actually his genuine and strongly-held opinions:

 

 

 

 

Anybody got anything to add apart from "what a pillock"?

Doesn't surprise me - plenty of guys here in Southampton saying much the same I'm afraid

[Nick L]

The Met Office did very well in the end, hats off to them.

 

To those in north saying "it was crap": You were NEVER in the firing line for this storm.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Doesn't surprise me - plenty of guys here in Southampton saying much the same I'm afraid

 

It's the "I didn't personally witness it, therefore it didn't happen" that gets me.  On that basis, how could we know anything about meteorology other than what we actually directly witness? 

[rich1974]

Surely not shut down yet.... There's talk of another storm this weekend isn't there? Or has that one done a runner? Not checked latest output

Start a new one then re this weekends storm.

[Captain Shortwave]

The Met Office did very well in the end, hats off to them.

 

To those in north saying "it was crap": You were NEVER in the firing line for this storm.

We were spared here, just typical wind and rain (gusts 40-50mph), though people 50 miles south in Ipswich etc were not so lucky. Just a case of the low being 20-30miles further south than anticipated. So not a bad job by the metoffice. Just wish the media could do one 

[bobbydog]

Again, I'd say that it depends on how large the risk increase is- for instance a bout of windy weather with 30-40mph gusts is more hazardous than usual, but less so than the current conditions, which in turn are less so than those associated with the storm on the 16th October 1987.  There will come a point where the level of risk increase reaches the reckless category- it's just a case of defining where that is!

 

well, you can't really define the "reckless category" by wind speeds or similar factors. its reached when someone's actions are likely to endanger other people.

Start a new one then re this weekends storm.

 

there already is one - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78292-possible-storm-next-weekend-discussion/

[Nick L]

We were spared here, just typical wind and rain (gusts 40-50mph), though people 50 miles south in Ipswich etc were not so lucky. Just a case of the low being 20-30miles further south than anticipated. So not a bad job by the metoffice. Just wish the media could do one 

 

Exactly, 20-30 miles is definitely "margin of error" stuff. If it missed the UK entirely and just battered the channel, then yes, they would have dropped a clanger. But the truth is a quarter of a million are without power, 2 people have died and the transport system south of the M4 is in chaos at the moment. 

 

Wasn't too bad here, max gust of 55mph, some downed trees and branches across campus.

 

On a side note: I've seen the tweeted photo of swimmers at Brighton. How STUPID can you be? If they get into difficulties the RNLI and coastguard will once again have to put their lives at risk to save people from their own stupidity! Unbelievable.

[Lunar Tick]

It's hard not to criticise the media for their reporting ahead of this storm. Headlines such as "UK braced for Super Storm" implies that a) that the whole of the UK was in the firing line when in reality, it was only the south that was forecast to be at risk from the strongest winds and b - that it was going to be a storm of epic intensity along the lines of 1987 when in reality it was *only* forecast as a powerful storm - unusual but not at all unheard of at this this time of year

Edited October 28, 2013 by Lunar Tick

[Neilsouth]

Well I put my hands up and admit I was wrong, although I was not well last night to experience all of the storm it certainly woke me up at times in the early hours. Got some pics of a tree that went down into someones front in HB!

Although "SUPER STORM", "MEGA STORM" were WAY WAY OTT

[Nick L]

Let's remember that the OTT headlines were mostly from the gutter trash tabloids. I think the BBC for example covered it reasonably well.

[Muffelchen]

220,000 properties without power is the latest I have heard on the BBC.

Quite a lively night / morning for the southern folks.

 

B.

Including in Eastrington, E Yorks this morning!

 

Go figure.......

[Neilsouth]

Let's remember that the OTT headlines were mostly from the gutter trash tabloids. I think the BBC for example covered it reasonably well.

 

Not as such

 

On bbc news a reporter in the south west said " The worst tempest in living memory is about to hit the south west "! Even the news mentioned that the south west at the highest gusts but failed to mention that the isle of wight is actually in the south

[Jimmyh]

think the posts are interesting. If it was to hit the whole of the uk then it would be a megastorm. I am sorry but this was a fairly significant storm like it or not. Storm force winds, disruption to the south of the country, including whitehall... people have died unfortunately as it well. interpretation of mega storm will continue for umpteemth times. Sorry

 

MET OFFICE as per JH follow up within 30-40 miles got it right. They have warned the media and how that was interpreted is up to them. Sky sensational, bbc more calm. The amount of disruption this has caused the southern half of the country is not on same scale of 1987 or 1990 but has left me trying to get to work with no trains and taking 4 buses and 3 hours travelling.

 

Unfortunately there will be people who will do down this storm, bare in mind that the charts do show more on its way.  

[feb1991blizzard]

Im sorry but I disagree, if you are going to have a go at the Express for calling it a super storm, surely the BBC headline of 90mph to hit heathrow would imply a super storm, 90mph is nearly hurricane force, I think people let their political views dictate their biases in this in my opinion.