South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->

[dec10snow]

I'll just surmising that the strongest gusts will arrive with the most intense squalls, i.e. the winds will not be sustained for any length of time. Due to this, there would be no requirement for a warning covering strong winds but rather the troublesome rain. Anyway, whatever, we can't change their thinking but we can sit back and watch things develop.

Then again, the strongest winds for St Jude, came with the squall line at the back of the system. If I didn't have that, then there wouldn't really be any need to have issued any warning at all, because of the main focus being in the south-east! I'm thinking that it can still cause considerable damage, if you get a hefty squall!

[dancing daisy]

Can someone cleverer than me please tell me when this wind will roughly die down?

 

It's Bridgwater carnival tonight and in an ideal world I would like to see the wind gone by about 7pm.  So much work goes into this carnival that I would be sad indeed if it was still as windy as it is now.

 

Rain/snow/cold/fog is fine, but wind will cause some major issues.

 

Thanks.  I'm straw clutching atm

[AWD]

Can someone cleverer than me please tell me when this wind will roughly die down?It's Bridgwater carnival tonight and in an ideal world I would like to see the wind gone by about 7pm. So much work goes into this carnival that I would be sad indeed if it was still as windy as it is now.Rain/snow/cold/fog is fine, but wind will cause some major issues.Thanks. I'm straw clutching atm

A good chance I might be going to Bridgwater carnival tonight too. My son definetly is anyway.Unfortunetly, the winds will worsen down that way this afternoon and look like peaking for Bridgwater some time in the evening. Expect gusts of 50mph in Bridgwater, with it quite likely to reach 60mph at times too. Along with frequent heavy and possibly thundery showers this evening coming off the Bristol Channel it really couldn't be much worse for the carnival.

[dancing daisy]

A good chance I might be going to Bridgwater carnival tonight too. My son definetly is anyway.

Unfortunetly, the winds will worsen down that way this afternoon and look like peaking for Bridgwater some time in the evening. Expect gusts of 50mph in Bridgwater, with it quite likely to reach 60mph at times too. Along with frequent heavy and possibly thundery showers this evening coming off the Bristol Channel it really couldn't be much worse for the carnival.

 

Aww that's a shame. 

 

If you happen to wander near my usual standing point, next to Specsavers/Greggs shout out Daisy and we'll have a pint. 

 

Enjoy!

 

 

 

Blimey I really messed this quote up! ha ha

Edited November 2, 2013 by dancing daisy

[AWD]

It's windy enough out there now.

A blizzard of leaves are blowing off the surrounding trees and my wheelie bin is doing the Salsa.

Lets hope things move through quicker than forecast and it improves to some degree tonight.

[Mapantz]

The wind has really picked up behind the squall line, not much rain from it though. It's gusting to 25mph at regular intervals, it's higher in reality, it's just my stations position isn't at 10m  (only 4.5m)  and it is slightly compromised by objects deflecting the wind.    

[MP-R]

Quite the squall line went through Yatton not too long ago with high winds and driving rain in all directions - now lovely blue skies but fresh with a more evident breeze/wind.

[Frosty_wsm]

So how much longer is this rubbish going on for then, dunno about anyone else but this constant wind and rain is getting depressing!

I don't think I've craved high pressure being slap bang over the country as much as I do right now!

[gottolovethisweather]

Then again, the strongest winds for St Jude, came with the squall line at the back of the system. If I didn't have that, then there wouldn't really be any need to have issued any warning at all, because of the main focus being in the south-east! I'm thinking that it can still cause considerable damage, if you get a hefty squall!

 

Yes I guess it comes down to one's opinion of the event and my maximum gust of 45mph from the aforementioned squall and associated stingjet was nothing unusual for my location. Nevertheless that's in the past and the fear was that the timing of the event was untimely with regards to potential loss of life during the rush hour. For now, let's watch this all unfold.

[kaz]

Wind is really picking up.. I hate the wind as it is so scarey. So hoping to see some lightning tonight, but i should imagine that the showers will move through very fast in this strong wind. Just looked at the wind map and at the moment gusts are up to 44mph can tell you it feels worse than that..

 

Bridgwater carnival is fantastic be a really shame if the winds and rain ruin it. All that work they do over the year.  

 

Kaz  

[littlemissy]

Wind has picked up here too ,and really going for it ...............trees really bearing the brunt

[Costa Del Fal]

Getting very gusty here. Roughly 70mph gusts on Scilly. Getting towards 60mph here! Could be worse than last weekend here!

[gottolovethisweather]

Wind is really picking up.. I hate the wind as it is so scarey. So hoping to see some lightning tonight, but i should imagine that the showers will move through very fast in this strong wind. Just looked at the wind map and at the moment gusts are up to 44mph can tell you it feels worse than that..

 

Bridgwater carnival is fantastic be a really shame if the winds and rain ruin it. All that work they do over the year.

 

Kaz  

 

When scared of wind, you best avoid spicy curries and baked beans then. As for lightning, you love it so I suggest you best pop to the offie and get some white lightning.

 

Personally, I love the full wrath of Mother Nature in all its guises but just sometimes wished people gave her the respect she deserves and that they take fewer risks.

[Mapantz]

So how much longer is this rubbish going on for then, dunno about anyone else but this constant wind and rain is getting depressing!I don't think I've craved high pressure being slap bang over the country as much as I do right now!

 

Well considering how benign it was from February to May, it's long overdue for a lengthy unsettled period, and to be fair, it's not been going on that long either lol - I'm happy for it to continue right through November, i still get out 'n' about it and enjoy it.

[gottolovethisweather]

Not sure if this has been said, but MetO have now updated a vast part of this region onto a yellow warning for WIND as follows. Needless to say, plenty of active showers about too.

 

 

Issued at: 1128 on Sat 2 Nov 2013

Valid from: 1200 on Sat 2 Nov 2013

Valid to: 2100 on Sat 2 Nov 2013

Westerly winds will strengthen through Saturday afternoon and into the evening, bringing gusts of 50-60 mph to many parts of the warning area, and locally around 70 mph along exposed coasts. The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption, particularly to travel.

A deep area of low pressure will track east across Ireland and southern Scotland during the course of Saturday and early Sunday, bringing a spell of windy weather to many parts of the UK.The strongest winds are expected to affect parts of southwest England and south Wales later on Saturday afternoon and during the evening, accompanied by squally heavy showers, including the risk of hail and thunder. With many trees still in leaf, the forecast wind gusts are likely to lead to some branches and trees being brought down, whilst leading to difficult driving conditions and also affecting outdoor events such as firework displays. Large waves and over-topping are also likely along some stretches of coastline.

[gottolovethisweather]

And then for good measure there is a yellow warning for RAIN on Sunday into Monday.

 

 

Issued at: 1330 on Sat 2 Nov 2013

Valid from: 1800 on Sun 3 Nov 2013

Valid to: 1200 on Mon 4 Nov 2013

Rain, heavy at times, is expected over southwest England late on Sunday before spreading eastwards to affect the rest of southern England overnight Sunday and through Monday morning. This additional rainfall, following recent wet weather, means that the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

A frontal zone moving swiftly across the Atlantic this weekend is expected to extend eastwards across southwestern UK late on Sunday before spreading to the rest of southern England overnight Sunday and through Monday morning. Associated rainfall is likely to be heavy at times with accumulations typically between 10 and 20 mm and locally 30 mm or more. It will also become windy in English Channel coastal areas where gales may develop for a time during Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday.

[gottolovethisweather]

Having read between the lines, it seems the further West you are and/or elevation then you are liable to receive the strongest gusts over the coming hours. Keep your eyes on the radar too. Given Blizzards report from earlier, added to the following comments, things are getting rough out there.

 

Never come across this before, but this is from weatheronline and is quite fascinating I suppose.

 

 

Scratchbox - November 02, 2013

 

 

Issued: 13:44hrs Saturday 02th November 2013

John: Gusts of 72mph at The Mumbles.

Issued: 11:26hrs Saturday 02th November 2013

John: Latest model suggests gusts to 70mph may affect areas east of the Pennines during the first half of the night.

Issued: 08:26hrs Saturday 02th November 2013

John: Heavy, possibly thundery showers will affect western parts of Britain this afternoon and evening.

Issued: 08:22hrs Saturday 02th November 2013

Edited November 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

These are some of the more notable gusts from weatheronline.

 

 

Aberdaron (94 m) 80 mph Mumbles (32 m) 75 mph Pembrey Burrows (6 m) 71 mph Capel Curig (215 m) 69 mph Scilly St Mary (30 m) 66 mph Cairngorms (1245 m) 66 mph Great Dun Fell (847 m) 65 mph Valley (10 m) 60 mph Newquay Cornwall Airport (103 m) 58 mph Sule Skerry (12 m) 58 mph IoM / Ronaldsway AP (16 m) 58 mph Aberporth (134 m) 58 mph Dundrennan (113 m) 57 mph Lake Vyrnwy (359 m) 57 mph

[AWD]

Looks like I've just found the "Gottolovethisweather thread".

I'm thinking that with the increased velocity aloft and strong sheer, there is the possibility that a few of this evenings and tonight's showers could be thundery for some.

The 15kft layer is certainly looking unstable later today and at times, very unstable. Along with the strong winds, could we see a squall set up?

[Zephyr]

Getting pretty gusty here I was just out for a walk and a big gust got up and the tree I was walking past was creaking I did a runner as I don't want it falling on me! 

[gottolovethisweather]

Looks like I've just found the "Gottolovethisweather thread".

 

 

Just one more then AWD, damn can't an appropriate emoticon.

 

Take care out there tonight and same goes for anyone else venturing out and about.

Edited November 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[festivalking]

I have no access to wind speeds but its definitely more windy here today than last weeks wind event!

[124alex]

is anything suppose to hit the sw?

[Erbyskerby]

Very windy here - has been all day. Easily stronger than Sun/Mon. House is shaking!

[Freddie123]

Interesting day. It started quite calm and sunny as we cleared up the remains of the local firework display from last night. As the morning progressed the wind has got stronger and more cloudy, even the scouts mentioned it to me. Seems slightly quieter now, but looks like it will pick up again soon.