South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->

[wimblettben]

I hope that is a bit further N and W of SW England. That would give some lovely SW gales, here.

That would bring more then just gales if that came off.

 

A lot of damage would be done, probably more then the storm just gone.

[karlos1983]

downgrade on the 18z GFS  

 

Let's get htis warm stuff out the way,I'm ready for winter now!!

[Nights King]

downgrade on the 18z GFS  

 

Let's get htis warm stuff out the way,I'm ready for winter now!!

 

I've been ready for winter since the end of the summer heat wave   Feels so strange only having had one frost so far this autumn as we get so close to winter itself!

 

I really pray we don't get a winter like the ones when I grew up which saw endless mild rubbisg with just a couple of 24/48 hr snow cover days dotted throughout winter.

Edited October 30, 2013 by mullender83

[karlos1983]

I've been ready for winter since the end of the summer heat wave   Feels so strange only having had one frost so far this autumn as we get so close to winter itself!

 

I really pray we don't get a winter like the ones when I grew up which saw endless mild rubbisg with just a couple of 24/48 hr snow cover days dotted throughout winter.

 

Yes, at least in winter I'm happy weather watching with a lamp post and don't need to venture out! With beverages of choice of course 

[Nights King]

There does seem to be a lot of forecasts pointing to mild this year except the usual crackpots which have the same annual forecast.

 

Lets just hope the crackpots get a fluke this year eh..  

[karlos1983]

There does seem to be a lot of forecasts pointing to mild this year except the usual crackpots which have the same annual forecast.

 

Lets just hope the crackpots get a fluke this year eh..  

 

From what I've seen, end of January and into Feb are the highest chance of below average conditions and the good stuff that comes with it. Credible source imo as well. 

[festivalking]

Well if late January and February is favourite for cold conditions we have 3 more months of dross to endure....

[Coast]

Animated NMM gust charts looking like a South coast affair on Saturday:

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was wet and mild with a strong wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 1.0 mm/hr 19:30 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.6 mm 19:46 Rainfall Yesterday: 1.4 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 13.9°C 12:14 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 26 mph 20:28 High Wind Speed: 14 mph 16:34 Wind Run: 136.6 miles Dominant Direction: 199° SSW.

[Gibby]

I hate this sort of day when strong convection could be possible were it not for this canopy of high level cloud from the slow moving front to the South. The end result is a dull and non-descript weather type day today with no rain as such, cloudy skies, light winds and relatively mild weather. There I feel better now I  have got that off my chest.

[Andy Bown]

I hate this sort of day when strong convection could be possible were it not for this canopy of high level cloud from the slow moving front to the South. The end result is a dull and non-descript weather type day today with no rain as such, cloudy skies, light winds and relatively mild weather. There I feel better now I  have got that off my chest.

I totally agree, ironically having driven home from Bath with a panoramic view to the S/E the brightest sky is in the direction of that front!

 

As a result of the cloudy dry morning it was a rare occurrence for me out working with no need for hat, gloves, cap or sunglasses.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Mundane  weather is not agreeable and that is all their is to it... 

[wimblettben]

Its a shame really, doesn't look like this coming so called storm will produce much now but it will just be enouph to ruin any fireworks being let off.

[gottolovethisweather]

Fact is Ben, we need to check the facts before any of this is completely nailed and even then the actual weather may differ to that currently forecast, which is as indicated below. The warning suggests this incoming depression is not to be messed with, either.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Heavy rain with risk of flooding and strong winds over next few days

Issued on 31/10/2013 at 16:14

Valid From: 31/10/2013 at 16:00 until 04/11/2013 at 20:00

Regions affected:
 

Areas affected in detail:
Whole of the UK

Severity level:
 

Weather type:
Heavy Rain & Strong Winds

Alert risk period:
01/11/13 00:00 until 04/11/13 20:00

Alert details:
The weather will be dominated by Atlantic low pressure systems moving east across the UK on Friday, over the weekend and into Monday. Spells of heavy and persistent rain are forecast throughout, which will increase the risk of flooding, given already saturated ground. Also winds will increase on Saturday, with a risk of gales or severe gales developing in places.

Friday
The first low pressure system will slide northeast across the far south of England before moving across the Low Countries early Saturday. Outbreaks of heavy and persistent rain are likely across parts of England and Wales from late morning through to early Saturday, with 15-30mm falling in places and locally as much as 40mm across some southern counties of England. It will be windy for a time along English Channel coasts, with gusts of up to 50mph possible.

Saturday
The next low pressure system coming in off the Atlantic will be deeper than Friday's low, with a centre of around 980mb moving across northern England or southern Scotland during the early evening. Gales or severe gales are possible for a time through the Irish Sea, then across exposed coasts and hills of England and Wales, with gusts of up to 50-60mph, perhaps as high as 60-70mph along southern and western coasts. A spell of heavy rain will move through, clearing early evening, followed by frequent and heavy showers across the north and west.

Late Sunday & early Monday
A third area of low pressure looks to slide across southern England Sunday night, bringing a spell of heavy and persistent rain across southern England and south Wales. Another 20-30mm is possible in places.

Given rainfall totals could reach 50-70mm in places between now and midday Monday and perhaps in excess of this in a few spots, there is an increasing risk of flooding likely - particularly across southern and western areas. Please refer to the Environment Agency or Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) websites for the latest information on flooding in your area.

Confidence:
80%

Issued by Nick Finnis for Netweather.tv

Edited October 31, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[legritter]

YES i agree with GIBBY ,what a boring day weatherwise ,yuck dross no action ,but gang we have yet again some very interesting weather on the way .looking at modells output and charts some places hit or miss ,still a little uncertainty with fridays low and how far north it tracks ,sundays low well as its moving across us not so much doubt ,then another low monday also the track is in doubt ,with the Dice falling right somewhere could record some impressive rain totals .Gfs at the moment is all over the place so as usual Fax charts will be worth studying .later runs show a hint of winter type weather if high pressure sets up in favoured location ,but they could be latching onto something but positioning will be crucial .some good signs in northern hemisphere compared to many a mid /late autumn back in our run of mild winters late 80 s 90 s early this century ,well its great to think we have 13 weeks of winter yet to come ,Thats 182 runs of ECM and Met office and 364 runs of GFS ,lets sit back and enjoy ,there will be plenty of ramps and plenty of moans ,but thats the weather ,plenty of thatchers apples by the truck load been passing my house this week ,you can smell the tractor as it passes bring it on ,cheers gang 

[Guest William Grimsley]

 

Fact is Ben, we need to check the facts before any of this is completely nailed and even then the actual weather may differ to that currently forecast, which is as indicated below. The warning suggests this incoming depression is not to be messed with, either.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Heavy rain with risk of flooding and strong winds over next few days

Issued on 31/10/2013 at 16:14

Valid From: 31/10/2013 at 16:00 until 04/11/2013 at 20:00

Regions affected:

 

Areas affected in detail:

Whole of the UK

Severity level:

 

Weather type:

Heavy Rain & Strong Winds

Alert risk period:

01/11/13 00:00 until 04/11/13 20:00

Alert details:

The weather will be dominated by Atlantic low pressure systems moving east across the UK on Friday, over the weekend and into Monday. Spells of heavy and persistent rain are forecast throughout, which will increase the risk of flooding, given already saturated ground. Also winds will increase on Saturday, with a risk of gales or severe gales developing in places.

Friday

The first low pressure system will slide northeast across the far south of England before moving across the Low Countries early Saturday. Outbreaks of heavy and persistent rain are likely across parts of England and Wales from late morning through to early Saturday, with 15-30mm falling in places and locally as much as 40mm across some southern counties of England. It will be windy for a time along English Channel coasts, with gusts of up to 50mph possible.

Saturday

The next low pressure system coming in off the Atlantic will be deeper than Friday's low, with a centre of around 980mb moving across northern England or southern Scotland during the early evening. Gales or severe gales are possible for a time through the Irish Sea, then across exposed coasts and hills of England and Wales, with gusts of up to 50-60mph, perhaps as high as 60-70mph along southern and western coasts. A spell of heavy rain will move through, clearing early evening, followed by frequent and heavy showers across the north and west.

Late Sunday & early Monday

A third area of low pressure looks to slide across southern England Sunday night, bringing a spell of heavy and persistent rain across southern England and south Wales. Another 20-30mm is possible in places.

Given rainfall totals could reach 50-70mm in places between now and midday Monday and perhaps in excess of this in a few spots, there is an increasing risk of flooding likely - particularly across southern and western areas. Please refer to the Environment Agency or Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) websites for the latest information on flooding in your area.

Confidence:

80%

Issued by Nick Finnis for Netweather.tv

 

That looks good. I hope that comes true. I would love nearly 40 mm of rain on Friday, wind gusts of 60 - 70 mph on Saturday and another 20-30 mm of rain on late Sunday and early Monday, here.

[MP-R]

Back in the West Country - good to be back. Doesn't look like the weather is playing ball though. Does anyone know how dry Monday is supposed to be? Having cancelled a trip to Westonbirt tomorrow because of the rain, I was thinking Monday looked like the opportune moment next week. Thanks.

[Andy Bown]

A few mm of rain this pm has made this month (172.5mm) the wettest month since before November 2009 (172mm) !

[noggin]

Back in the West Country - good to be back. Doesn't look like the weather is playing ball though. Does anyone know how dry Monday is supposed to be? Having cancelled a trip to Westonbirt tomorrow because of the rain, I was thinking Monday looked like the opportune moment next week. Thanks.

 

 

 Well, I can't help with a weather forecast, but I will say that cancelling tomorrow is a brilliant idea. I was at Westonbirt on Tuesday......it was heaving with thousands of people, due to it being half-term!  I've never seen so many people there in the 25 years that I've been going!

 

Hope it works out for you for next week!

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was wet and mild with a moderate wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 3.8 mm/hr 22:13 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.6 mm 22:20 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.6 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 13.3°C 13:51 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 21 mph 22:22 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 13 mph 22:22 Wind Run Yesterday: 84.2 mi Dominant Direction Yesterday: 216° SW.

[AWD]

From Ian;

"Still limited confidence on rain amounts & distribution this evening. Considerable flux in wet v dry/drier signal for e.g. Bristol. Conversely, confidence in an increasingly windy & showery story Sat PM is high. Gusts potentially 70mph Bristol Channel coasts with inland gusts fairly widely to around 50mph. Not as bad as Monday's storm but wider spread of high winds across the region. Given the high winds, any firework displays planned on Saturday evening need very cautious consideration (or arguably, postponed?)"

Edited November 1, 2013 by AWD

[Mapantz]

The models had stepped away from the idea of excessive rainfall last night and today, hence why the warning for the SW has been removed but kept for the SE. That warning cancelled bonfires and fireworks here, and there's a small chance it may not even be raining at 6pm, even if it is, it won't be a considerble amount. 

[Sainsbo]

Well, it looks like tomorrow evening could see stronger gusts here than St Jude brought.

 

Hopefully it won't be too bad because a lot of people have plans for firework displays.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Well, it looks like tomorrow evening could see stronger gusts here than St Jude brought.

 

Hopefully it won't be too bad because a lot of people have plans for firework displays.

I hope so. I wasn't in SW England for the St Jude storm. I hope this storm brings either similar or stronger winds gusts than the St Jude storm, here.

[Gibby]

Looks like todays forecast has gone badly wrong though I concede a lot of doubt was thrown on the rain event today. It now looks that very little rain will affect the South of England as the wedge of rain stays on the other side of the channel. Ironically the most rain is falling further North across North Wales and the Midlands.