South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->

[john w]

Looking at the rain radar, I would have expected to see a lot more rain than I have done...

 

Are the high winds expected after the rain or what is the pattern here?  TBH I am quite very disappointed so far.  Gonna phone a friend who was also looking forward to a bit of excitement...

 

(or am I being presumptuous and the best is yet to come?)

 

Things still in the Bristol channel,

 

best yet to come

[Rustynailer]

All this rain won't help the trees when/if the wind really kicks in

In 87 one major reason the storm took such a toll on Southern England's trees is the fact that they were in leaf, of course the other facts were more apparent to the untrained eye.

A forestry commission head forester told me that after the 1990 storm.

[john w]

To those calling it a bust/forecasts wrong etc... The strong winds were ALWAYS predicted to hit during the small hours and into the morning rush hour.

 

Imj not sure why everyone else has missed this point apart from us, the meto Amber doesn't kick in till 00:05!

[NessCottage]

55mph gust just now.  Residual on the high tide 0.67m - would have caused severe problems if had happened on spring tides. 

[john w]

low showing nicely 984

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2013102723&size=standard〈=en&map=eur_full&area=eur

 

If that's the case, I would say a shade deeper than what models predicted. I caveat very heavily that I do not know how this chart you posted models the isobars.

 

See a previous post I made, but at 00:00 most models went for about 985 around Bristol

[DanDorsetUK]

WOAH sudden wind hitting the front door really picking up here in Bournemouth now, pressure still falling -3.3mb/hr now, nice!

[katemart]

Looks like flooding is going to be a significant problem for several hours before the main event. Currently trying to find info for a friend who is on holiday in a cottage in Devon. It has a stream running  directly under the kitchen which has risen two feet in two hours. Small baby, no mobile signal, no landline...

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx

[windseeker]

If that's the case, I would say a shade deeper than what models predicted. I caveat very heavily that I do not know how this chart you posted models the isobars.

 

See a previous post I made, but at 00:00 most models went for about 985 around Bristol

at the rates of drop we have seen could be 984 by midnight

[Sungirl]

We are down to 990.6 dropping 2.2p/h... Temp 12.9!

 

Wind = 9.9mph and gusts of 17.3mph...

 

No drama here as of yet!!!

 

(I haven't missed the point of it all kicking off later. 

I just hoped it would be sooner so

a) I would see/hear it as I know I won't wake up from it and

b ) so it was cleared by the time I go to work!

 

Just wishful thinking on my part but thinking I might as well go to bed as nothing is going to happen until the early hours.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Sungirl

[Nights King]

Ah I was going to stay up but 40-60mph isn't really much to write home about after the hype all week so going to bed 

 

If there is any damage to our very aged infrastructure at work ill get you photo's as I'm first in during the morning and it really doesn't take much to damage it...

[Erbyskerby]

Very blustery here now - I can hear the sea roaring. Rain has stopped for the time being. Not sure if we'll get the full whammy up here on the north coast but an interesting night on the forum nonetheless!

[smckay]

995mb at 21hrs to 990mb at 23:30

[NessCottage]

984 mb 59.26 mph gust sustained wind 38.3mph 

 

Getting worried!

[gottolovethisweather]

In 87 one major reason the storm took such a toll on Southern England's trees is the fact that they were in leaf, of course the other facts were more apparent to the untrained eye.

A forestry commission head forester told me that after the 1990 storm.

 

Also, note the similarity with current Temperature trends, my post from earlier. I'm trying not to scaremonger as that truly was an exceptional event, but this bears some resemblance, I guess i.e. Temps up and down, mixing out. Warm SSTs, mild daytime Temperatures and lack of Frosts as a result all add up to a potentially wet n windy Autumn.

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[DanDorsetUK]

I think the low is deeper than what was being predicted! Now -3.6hr 986.7 and its not even here yet!

[Sainsbo]

Pressure now at 987.2, and wind gusts at 15mph

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Well I've just been out to wedge a breeze block up against the garage door whilst my dear husband slumbers peacefully. Wind really picking up now. Our garage used to be hen house so only has a corrugated roof. Wonder if it'll still be there in the morning!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Looks like flooding is going to be a significant problem for several hours before the main event. Currently trying to find info for a friend who is on holiday in a cottage in Devon. It has a stream running  directly under the kitchen which has risen two feet in two hours. Small baby, no mobile signal, no landline...

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx

 

Going to be an all too familiar tale by morning I bet. Hope all is well in the end.

[Nights King]

984 mb 59.26 mph gust sustained wind 38.3mph 

 

Getting worried!

 

Don't be unless of course your a weak or sick tree in full leaf..

 

Won't find any damaging gusts in my bedroom..  

[Rustynailer]

The national grid will be on the ball http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Also these guys cant afford to not keep an eye on things http://www.edfenergy.com/about-us/energy-generation/nuclear-generation/nuclear-power-stations/station-reports/nuclear-plant-status/nuclear-plant-status.pdf

 Soon as the lines come down in any amount they switch out and withdraw control rods, etc. Cant have power jumping all over the place willy nilley in the wind.

I will be surprised if we get up to 90mph here, we will see, famous last words

[BristolBaggie]

To those calling it a bust/forecasts wrong etc... The strong winds were ALWAYS predicted to hit during the small hours and into the morning rush hour.

Well said my fellow Baggie. I'm staying in this thread now as the main storm thread is being overrun with stupid posts

[Anthony81]

Currently very calm here in cheltenham at the moment, light to moderate rain.

[john w]

Looks like flooding is going to be a significant problem for several hours before the main event. Currently trying to find info for a friend who is on holiday in a cottage in Devon. It has a stream running  directly under the kitchen which has risen two feet in two hours. Small baby, no mobile signal, no landline...

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx

 

There used to be a decent site that had flood stage for streams and then reported against stage boards, but cant remember it. They don't do hydrometrey here like they do in the US...but stream UNDER her kitchen. I assume its in a culvert and they have not just built a kitchen over a stream?

[NessCottage]

Don't be unless of course your a weak or sick tree in full leaf..

 

Won't find any damaging gusts in my bedroom..  

Or have a listed evergreen oak which the council refuse to chop down despite it being 12 feet from house! ( We are 125m from coast!)

[Nick L]

Well said my fellow Baggie. I'm staying in this thread now as the main storm thread is being overrun with stupid posts

 

Tell me about it...I'll be up most of the night trying to keep some form of sanity in there.