South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->

[gottolovethisweather]

Not too sure whether this will copy across correctly but this the Sevenstones Lightship reading at 2000hrs. If validated, that is some Barometer drop, if nothing else. *Sevenstones is located due West of Land's End pretty much.

 

 

Conditions at 62107 as of
2000 GMT on 10/27/2013:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last 24 hours of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 10.3 m/s Wave Height (WVHT): 7.3 m Average Period (APD): 12 sec Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 992.3 mb Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -6.0 mb ( Falling Rapidly ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 13.6 °C Water Temperature (WTMP): 13.8 °C Dew Point (DEWP): 13.3 °C

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[NessCottage]

992 mb now in Teignmouth -3mb in 1 hr 45 mins

[Beast of Plympton]

Thanks, left due to (lack of) money after finishing uni, but Hopefully be back that way soon if I get the job I want.

 

Nice one! South West is best!

[Mapantz]

haha - You legend AWD, i love the fact you put Wareham in there. 

[egret]

 rain has just eased a bit and wind has picked up with a sudden squall, probably force six. Pressure had been gently rising but has started to drop again over the past hour and now dropping sharply. Barograph is not calibrated so will leave to others to determine lowest pressure reached.  (Puddletown just east of Dorchester,  we are in the lee of a gentle hill so reasonably protected from S and W winds )

[gottolovethisweather]

Right, my amatuer thoughts of tonight's events. Got to say, it's a difficult one to call really, so I'm not overly confident in any forecast as things stand. The Met Office, the 12z Model Output, Media forecasts and Live progression are all differing slightly. Whilst these differences are minuscule in the overall picture of things, they could have large alterations in inter regional detail.

image.jpg

That is the best I can produce right now.

The area in red which includes catchments such as;

- Brighton, Bognor Regis, Littlehampton, Portsmouth, Hastings, Eastbourne, IOW, Southampton, Bournemouth, Poole, Brockenhurst, Wareham, Lyme Regis and Fareham.

This area could see gusts approaching 80mph during the storms peak. More typical gusts are likely to range from 65mph - 75mph. Some damage and distribution is likely in this area.

The Orange area, which includes catchments such as;

- Plymouth, Paignton, Newton Abbott, Exeter, Newton Poppleford, Weymouth, Sidmouth, Barnstaple, North Exmoor, Bude, Padstow, Minehead, Burnham, Weston Super Mare, Lundy Island, Portishead, West Bristol, Thornbury, Bridgwater, Taunton, Winchester, Basingstoke, Reading, Guildford and Horsham.

This area could see gusts approaching 70mph. More typically, a short spell of gusts between 55mph - 65mph is likely quite widely.

The green area, who's catchments include;

- Bodmin, Liskeard, Warminster, Trowbridge, Frome, Yeovil, Salisbury, Swindon, Bath, Gloucester, Stroud, Cheltenham, Dursley, Tewkesbury, Worcester, Evesham, Newbury, Pewsey, Oxford, Didcot, Banbury, Moreton, Kingham, Chipping Norton, Devizes and Thatcham.

This area should see gusts no higher than 60mph. More likely and widely, the more common gusts should be 45mph - 55mph though.

Off course, tropographic impacts come into play when forecasting windspeeds, so places like the Mendips and Chilterns might see higher windspeeds than advertised above, but these are likely to be locally limited to prone locations. Unfortunetly, I don't have the geographical knowledge of all our thread area to include this into my forecast, hence why I've listed all urban and semi urban catchments my colour specific areas include, to make it clear my forecast has a urban bias to it rather than an elevation or coastal bias.

All we can do now is watch and see how things evolve anyway. Model watching has finished, it's now down to Satelitte imagery and looking out our windows. We saw how modest 40mph - 60mph gusts blew over trees today around the region, so I have little doubt that further damage and tree deaths will occur overnight tonight. Stay safe peeps, it is going to be nervy for some of us tonight. Don't wind board in Lyme Bay, don't abseil down the Severn Bridge, don't go snorkelling off Lundy Island, don't go sailing to the Sicily Isles and don't attempt a channel swim!

Stay safe and don't be stupid and most of us should be fine.

 

That looks a very good assessment as things stand, Thank you muchly AWD.

[NessCottage]

Wind picked up markedly in last 15 mins

 

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/dispgraphMet.php?thisgraph=wind_speed&table=envdata_TeignmouthPier_met&timespan=1382821200,1382907600&today=1&scale=1.5&chart=94&datum=chart&cb=35150824

Edited October 27, 2013 by NessCottage

[fUnKy]

Nice one! South West is best!

But shushhh.. don't tell those in the south east that.. now I have some free time I'll have to talk to some folk about the weather.

[windseeker]

 

Latest thoughts, the storm not as bad as it could have been:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78270-sunday-monday-storm-latest-from-the-netweather-team/?p=2819106

 

interesting update here

[Beast of Plympton]

But shushhh.. don't tell those in the south east that.. now I have some free time I'll have to talk to some folk about the weather.

 

We will allow that... But don't get too comfortable!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Incidentally, some folk may be able to recall, well it's not my recollection of the 1987 storm but my fathers. During that storm the Temperature one moment would feel warm and then the next it was much colder. So from this observation, if this beast were to RAMP UP (god forbid!) you could use that as a tell-tale sign of the airmasses mixing things for the worse. The only way one would know is if somebody actually decides to venture outside at some point in time, which I think I would advise against.

 

I AM CLEARLY NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN, just in case somebody interprets things this way, just for information purposes.

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[festivalking]

Brilliant! BBC News 24 just interviewing the chap who runs the isle of scilly radio expecting to hear a worried voice and the chap just said its not windy and they have seen alot worse. Priceless!

[gottolovethisweather]

Brilliant! BBC News 24 just interviewing the chap who runs the isle of scilly radio expecting to hear a worried voice and the chap just said its not windy and they have seen alot worse. Priceless!

 

Far too early yet, will need to give it another couple of hours at least and then they may be interviewing him from Truro on the mainland. Wave heights incidentally are in the region of 20 to 35 feet according to some of the buoys far out at sea.

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Decee]

a mile up the road from me

 

http://www.martynhicks.co.uk/weather/data.php

 

http://www.martynhicks.co.uk/weather/data.php?page=live

[NessCottage]

Brilliant! BBC News 24 just interviewing the chap who runs the isle of scilly radio expecting to hear a worried voice and the chap just said its not windy and they have seen alot worse. Priceless!

Yep, if it is going to get bad it will intensify after it has passed the Scillies. They should get swell but I think they escape the worst of the winds which may be much further East.

[windseeker]

winds ramping back up in east solent

 

http://www.chimet.co.uk/(S(oeieifmkvex4zr32rjtoobrf))/wind.aspx

[NessCottage]

Now 991mb here -4mb in 2.05

[Gibby]

This map is a good indicator of surface wind speeds as they are happening around the UK at the moment.

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[sherrie]

The wind has just started to blow down the chimney in the last 5 mins, its got steadily louder so I guess this it it.

Axminster

[winger]

Wind is picking up now. Barometer 992.1mb and dropping at 2mb/hr..... Something is stirring!

[NessCottage]

990 mb -5 in 2.25

[AWD]

Latest from Netweather;

[Guest William Grimsley]

Latest from Netweather;

image.jpg

I suppose 40 - 60 mph wind gusts are good enough for Cheshire where I currently am... I wish I was at home right now, though.

[gottolovethisweather]

Latest from Netweather;

image.jpg

 

What a consistent trend that has been for many a day now. The reality of whether these projections meet the actual weather on the ground will be apparent over the next few hours.

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

What a consistent trend that has been for many a day now. The reality of whether these projections meet the actual weather on the ground will be apparent over the next few hours.

I'm not too sure because the track of the low Netweather show on that image and the position of the low currently on satellite imagery already differ a little to me.As you say though, only time will tell.