South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->

[A.J]

Ok, a new thread for what looks like a period of very lively weather overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Keep an eye on the met office website for any urgent developments as well as here on NetWeather

 

 

Old thread here ----------------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78026-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-031013-15z/page-37

 

[dec10snow]

AWD, on 27 Oct 2013 - 17:19, said:

Basically, and this is a broad brush amatuer reply as I'm not 100% sure either, the global models are designed more toward the longwave, synoptic pattern for the UK and northern hemisphere as a whole.

We then have high res short term modelling such as NAE, NMM, UKV, ARPEGE, EURO4, MOGREPS etc for more inter-regional detailed analysis, which should include local environmental and tropographic nuances the GM's might not pick up on.

Hence why there might be higher gusts quoted from professionals etc than what's displayed on public website/Apps etc. This is because your local tropographic nuances and other environmental conditions have been taken into account.

Perhaps a tweet/e mail to the Met Office might be an idea as I can't guarantee I'm right of course.

Okay, so basically it may be lower due to topography, geography etc? Thanks mate

*Reposted from previous thread*

Edited October 27, 2013 by dec10snow

[Lewesdon]

And so it begins.....light rain here in South Somerset.

[NessCottage]

Rain started here in Teignmouth now.  Useful live data from end of the pier 

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/?chart=94&tab=met&start=&end=&disp_option=

[UKMoto]

_{Hello everyone, new member here. I've been following the main thread here for a day or two, all very interesting stuff indeed. Just a FYI, I'm at Landrake in Cornwall ( 5 miles from Plymouth). Been moderately windy all day until about an hour ago when the winds eased but right now it's raining heavily. My little amateur weather station has recorded 3mm. in the last hour so far with a lot more to come looking at Rain Alarm and Carnkie weather. Will be watching this thread avidly through the night no doubt, awaiting to see what happens.}

 

 

_{http://landrakemotoparc.com/weather/index.htm}

 

_Phil

 

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by UKmoto

[Milli Bar]

Yes, just started raining here in south Somerset, and for the first time in a couple of days the wind has dropped to barely nothing. Talk about the calm before the storm! It was blowing a hooley here earlier!

[A.J]

_{Hello everyone, new member here. I've been following the main thread here for a day or two, all very interesting stuff indeed. Just a FYI, I'm at Landrake in Cornwall ( 5 miles from Plymouth). Been moderately windy all day until about an hour ago when the winds eased but right now it's raining heavily. My little amateur weather station has recorded 3mm. in the last hour so far with a lot more to come looking at Rain Alarm and Carnkie weather. Will be watching this thread avidly through the night no doubt, awaiting to see what happens.}

 

 

_{http://landrakemotoparc.com/weather/index.htm}

 

_Phil

Welcome aboard Phil

[khodds]

Yes, gone calm here too. 13.0c pressure 995mb - was 996 25mins ago

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, in 12 hours time, it should all but be over for this region, pretty unbelievable given that my current pressure reading is only 997.3mb. It should according to this Fax chart be touching 972mb or thereabouts by 6am on Monday.

 

 

The radar is looking pretty lively so it's clearly not just the wind we have to contend with.

 

 

Time for a catch up on some postings before a nice soak and then maybe a beverage or two as the storm approaches.

[karlos1983]

_{Hello everyone, new member here. I've been following the main thread here for a day or two, all very interesting stuff indeed. Just a FYI, I'm at Landrake in Cornwall ( 5 miles from Plymouth). Been moderately windy all day until about an hour ago when the winds eased but right now it's raining heavily. My little amateur weather station has recorded 3mm. in the last hour so far with a lot more to come looking at Rain Alarm and Carnkie weather. Will be watching this thread avidly through the night no doubt, awaiting to see what happens.}

 

 

_{http://landrakemotoparc.com/weather/index.htm}

 

_Phil

 

May want to adjust your Barometer, Plymouth reading 1000mb at the moment.

 

Welcome to the party

[UKMoto]

May want to adjust your Barometer, Plymouth reading 1000mb at the moment.

 

Welcome to the party

Yes, I've noticed that all day. I'm not even sure it's working! doh!  I'll take a look.

[dec10snow]

May want to adjust your Barometer, Plymouth reading 1000mb at the moment.

Welcome to the party

Karlos now thinks he is pro because he got a weather station of his own

I'm not jealous... Honest....

[UKMoto]

Karlos now thinks he is pro because he got a weather station of his own

I'm not jealous... Honest....

Haha, Thanks to all, should be correct now. Great to have some help and advice.......

[OldMetMan]

Hi folks, been away from the forums for a while, but I couldn't let this developing storm pass without chiming in!

 

First, well done to the models for picking up on this LP so far in advance. The media is clearly in quite a frenzy over this one. One thing I've learned over many years is that such a hugely anticipated weather event rarely pans out as predicted. Having said that, let's look at where we are now.

 

A closed low has formed in the last couple of hours in the SW approaches and looking at the steering flow, the predicted path looks pretty likely - across the Midlands. Whilst I would agree that the gradient on the S and SE flank looks likely to be pretty tight, given the speed this system is moving, as evidenced by the IR satellite images, I am wondering if this low will actually have time to deepen as much as anticipated. Thus, maybe there won't be so much of a tight gradient, especially on the W edge, the "backlash", well at least until it gets to the E coast. The GFS model suggests as much on the 12Z run.

 

Nevertheless, these beasties can be very tricky so I will not underestimate the threat! One thing resulting from the speed of the system is that at least the winds, however strong they become, will move away pretty fast.

 

I shall be following the hourly analyses with interest until I get too tired!

 

Stay safe everyone!

 

OMM

[major bartlett]

Thanks OMM, always great to have your input, Peter.

[Decee]

Just had a heavy shower next to Filton Airfield. Trees by me swaying side to side.

[Costa Del Fal]

LIVE UPDATES, Forecasts and Weather Warnings for Cornwall, Scilly Isles and the Channel Islands available here: http://www.cciweather.co.uk/#

[NessCottage]

Wind in Teignmouth now dropped to 3 knots! 

[AWD]

Ian's forecast just now showed 2 stages;

- Heavy rain soon until around midnightish. Some very bright colours on his graphics.

- Strong winds from 03:00 - 05:00 approx, with upto 80mph gusts in prone locations. Typically 60mph + widely.

[Dorsetbred]

Well he's on to cert on the first part, the rain is falling

Edited October 27, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[Lewesdon]

So what kind of max gusts are to be expected through Lyme Bay? At work and unable to carry out much research, cheers.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Lewesdon

[Sungirl]

I have friends in Bristol and Southampton which are showing up on the rain radar as having rain but both are reporting nothing happening :O 

 

What is going on?  Is the rain radar not accurate?  Or could they be in little pockets that don't have any rain yet?

[NessCottage]

Heavy persistent rain in Teignmouth now.  Here is a link to the tide gauge which shows the actual vs predicted tide heights so you can get an idea of the effect of the storm surge.  Luckily the tides are neap at the moment. http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/?chart=94&tab=tides&disp_option=

[AWD]

I have friends in Bristol and Southampton which are showing up on the rain radar as having rain but both are reporting nothing happening :O What is going on? Is the rain radar not accurate? Or could they be in little pockets that don't have any rain yet?

I'm in east Bristol and I can confirm we have light rain here.

[philglossop]

Chucking it down in Plymouth now- but the wind has dropped (calm before the storm)

 

From Plymouth Citybus

 

lymouth Citybus Â· 7,262 like this.

16 minutes ago Â· 

• [*]

Good evening - like you we have no idea what disruption we may face in the morning. We expect floods in all the usual places and other difficulties. We will post regular updates from around 0530 here and on twitter
This evening we are operating as normal but have replaced all the double deck buses with single deck buses just as a precaution.
Stay safe out there and check back in the morning for those important travel updates