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Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion


Skullzrulerz

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

Met office have no warnings out for my area well not what i can see.. very strange.

We don't need warnings for crap weather up here.It's just weather to us but it does look like it may get a bit wild later.
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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

The winds will be strongest on its southern flank like most storms that cross us, where the center of the low goes will show where the strongest winds will be

Agreed Surrey but the current track seems to be far north of England, Southern Scotland which IMO would put the midlands in the southern flank firing line rather than the extreme South West.That's why I think our part will be when the system pushes out into the North Sea and we get the Noth Westerly flow on the rear edge.
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

BBC were also saying strongest winds then transferring to the far north or England as the low exits but again no warning etc - we are used to strong winds up here anyway so not getting too excited.  It may be wild then again maybe it won't - if it is it might stop the charvers from lighting fireworks in the street the idiots!

Edited by P-M
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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
<SNIP>

dammed if you do/don't

 

 

I would rather a warning and be prepared/safe than not and have problems beyond the inevitable.

 

 

Keep up the good work Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

An yellow early warning may get issued later, for tomorrow morning but for now, the MO think it doesn't warrant one or they may be waiting for their next data run to pin the track down, so they can make their final decision.  The NMM hi-res model shows potential gusts of between 52 and 60mph across a section in the North - I'm pretty sure that's happened on many occasions without warnings? The MO do have higher resolution models and alot more data to hand than the public, so for now, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wimborne, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (of course) Storms, Sunshine, everything begging with 'S'
  • Location: Wimborne, Dorset

OOps sorry, Just deleted post Posted Image

Edited by Snowkissed
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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

Regarding METO warnings I think they do a great job and get it right 95% of the time. Take the storm on Monday for example - amber warnings were issued and people moaned they should be red, while other people said they were over-hyped. What happened was moderate disruption across a swathe of England from East Anglia to the southwest, so I think it would have been impossible for the Met to have released a localised red warning. However the storm was fairly serious causing deaths and disruption, so the amber warning was warranted.

Looking at today's system, Wales, southwest England and potentially northeast England and eastern Scotland look set to get the strongest of the winds at about 60mph, possibly 70 in a few exposed locations. Then we need to look at the timing of the event - across the southwest and Wales winds will be strongest from now until evening where as in NE England and E Scotland it won't be bad until overnight and early tomorrow morning. Therefore the greatest risk of disruption is to the southwest as the highest winds will occur during this afternoon and evening, as opposed to the overnight period elsewhere, justifying a yellow warning for these areas. I suspect a yellow warning may be issued for E Scotland later but this area is less populated, more used to gales, and the strongest winds will occur overnight, so the risk of disruption is less.

I don't believe there is a north/south bias, it's just the Met taking into account the possibility for disruption based on the local demographics. An area with a higher population density will probably suffer more disruption from fairly similar wind speeds.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Gusts over 40mph here already, expecting 50mph comfortably this afternoon although I won't be here to experience them as going to the Midlands soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

wind picking up here now on the Southern most tip of Wales ..could see 70mph here later I think 

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

82km/ hour gust recently - thats over 50mph - by far the strongest my new anemometer on the roof has recorded! We are a relatively sheltered inland location.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I'm unlikely to record anything special, the wind direction is different from Monday's storm,  the Purbeck area is more protected in these wind directions. 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It might be an idea for folk to know just what will prompt a warning from the Met Office for winds?

they are

 

Met Office criteria

Possible effects

Severe gales

Repeated gusts of 70 m.p.h. or more over inland areas.

  • [*]
High-sided vehicles at risk of being blown over [*]Some trees uprooted [*]Tiles, slates and chimneys dislodged from some buildings

Storms

Repeated gusts of 80 m.p.h. or more over inland areas.

  • [*]
Cars blown out of lanes on roads [*]Widespread removal of branches from trees; many trees uprooted [*]Tiles, slates and chimneys dislodged from many buildings; some structural damage

Where wind is forecast above 90 m.p.h. the following may occur.

  • [*]
Collisions whilst driving [*]Widespread uprooting of trees [*]Injury due to flying debris [*]Widespread damage to buildings; some buildings collapse

That said they are issuing currently for values below that, see below, so perhaps the criteria has been changed since I copied this data?

Issued at - 02 Nov 2013, 11:38

Valid from - 02 Nov 2013, 19:00
Valid to - 02 Nov 2013, 23:59

West to northwesterly winds will strengthen through Saturday evening, bringing gusts of 50-60 mph to many parts of the warning area, and perhaps very locally towards 70 mph along exposed coasts.

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption, particularly to travel.

 

can't find what I was looking for on their web site-not the most user friendly one!

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

I would like to say that back in the late 80s and early 90s i sent a letter to the bbc stating that they should give the weather presenters a lot more air time .i know news in generall can be important but in times of unusual weather im sure in a two minute slot the presenter could explain more and in detail .its odviously a hard one to call as last mondays low goes to prove ,if the low had continued on its forecast track  as of tea time sunday a much larger area would have been affected by strong gusts ,but as it was the low passed over the bristol area instead of crossing further n /west across s west wales ,indeed as i was up in early hours for a while it was flat calm moon out stars out and no sign to the untrained eye of what would whistle through an hour or so later ,although in my location 15 miles s west of bristol just a short sharp gusty spell .todays low is much easier to track ,its there in front of our eyes ,not the sneaky beast of last monday who is a relative of the 87 storm ,and from the same sneaky family who like to keep you guessing till you drop off to sleep ,then attacks in the dark of night .just wanted to put another take on our hobby as my grey matter isnt what it used to be technical wise .last nights rain slipped further south todays gales could produce some surprises ,wonder what will happen to tomorrows hvy rain ,thats forecasting gang ,but very interesting all the same .wind here now picking up and pressure just dropped quite quickly over last hour or so ,take care all and thanks again those posters who post interesting Data etc Posted Image

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Guest William Grimsley

The storm has moved in now. It is becoming quite windy, here. High Wind Gust Today: 28 mph 12:57 High Wind Speed Today: 19 mph 13:02.

Edited by William Grimsley
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