Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[radiohead]

978mb at 6am.

 

[TwisterGirl81]

45mph forecast for Exeter today....is that a squal line making it's way in from western approaches?

[Nick F]

Gust of 68mph on Buoy 62023 off SE Ireland at 0800, wind picking up behind the occluding cold front squall coming into Cornwall and west Wales.

 

Storm forecast for today, risk of convective gusts 60-70mph from downdrafts in any showers or storms across the west today:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=27ef6d6a4ab98d6ca2b7fcfed77fdbe5

[Coast]

ESTOFEX on Wales and Ireland particularly:

 

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 02 Nov 2013 06:00 to Sun 03 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 01 Nov 2013 22:23

Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 was issued for Ireland and Wales for severe convective wind gusts.

 

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

A broad zonal flow covers most parts of Europe, distorted by a progressive, deepening trough and another powerful cyclone which cross the British Isles during the forecast period. Minimal and rather shallow CAPE is forecast in the belt of augmented low-level moisture along its cold front over Northern Portugal, Northern Spain and France, and then again in its wake over the British Isles and the Bay of Biscay, where lapse rates steepen in response to QG lift. Shower activity in these areas may be accompanied by a few lightning strikes. 0-3 km vertical wind shear does not exceed 15 m/s, but the strong background wind field can promote some severe wind gusts even with weakly organized convection over Ireland and Wales (25-30 m/s flow at 850 hPa).

 

 

 

UKASF:

 

 

 

Synopsis

 

Large upper trough will approach from the Atlantic, with axis aligned N-S down western Britain by 00z Sunday. At the surface, a deepening low will track northeast from Ireland to the Borders, and thereafter exiting across the North Sea during the evening hours.

Discussion

 

Behind the wrap-around front, cold mid-levels will overspread warm SSTs, significantly steepening lapse rates and generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Ireland during the midday and afternoon hours, this activity translating to and becoming more widespread across Irish Sea and Celtic Sea areas, and along adjacent exposed west-facing coasts. Particular attention is given to Pembrokeshire, Devon and Cornwall during the evening and into Saturday night as very steep mid-level lapse rates suggest more widespread lightning activity - potential, perhaps, to upgrade some coastal areas to MDT.

 

An increase in offshore convection is also forecast near the coasts of eastern Scotland, grazing Aberdeenshire and tracking further northwards through the evening towards Orkney, and Shetland after midnight, hence the inclusion of a second SLGT area.

 

In both cases, 30-40kts DLS will allow cells to become well-organised, especially at first, and with strong LLS and SREH, a funnel or waterspout is certainly possible. Dry surface air suggests cloud bases will be quite high, albeit dropping slightly during the evening hours as the surface layers moisten. Some small hail is likely in several stronger cells.

 

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

45mph forecast for Exeter today....is that a squal line making it's way in from western approaches?

Yeah, I think so. Wind gusts could reach 50 mph inland, possibly 70 mph around coasts.

[Guest William Grimsley]

ESTOFEX on Wales and Ireland particularly:

 

 

 

UKASF:

 

It might not be just the wind that we will be talking about, today. Some of these showers will be heavy with hail, thunder and lightning and squally winds.

Edited November 2, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Coast]

GFS Ligthning Wizard still has the main area of gusty weather through the middle of the country, Wales coming in for a very windy period from tonight:

 

 

 

Seems to be a little earlier than forecast yesterday.

 

Rain also a concern for early Monday:

 

[radiohead]

It's storm force now at Kinsale Energy off the Irish coast. Just had a 77 mph gust there.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Coast going by that lightning wizard gust chart.. That would bring 70-80mph gusts through Wales and inland with 60-70mph widely elsewhere!!! ???

Also looks like the low is even more further south now....

[radiohead]

Coast going by that lightning wizard gust chart.. That would bring 70-80mph gusts through Wales and inland with 60-70mph widely elsewhere!!! ???Also looks like the low is even more further south now....

 

Well those are potentual convective gusts. It's the maximum strength gusts that could be carried down in a heavy shower, it doesn't mean that whole area will get those type of gusts. So keep an eye out of heavy precip because it might bring more than just rain!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Where the hell are all the warnings, I'm confused......... this looks like no pushover!

[Guest William Grimsley]

The storm is starting move in now, here. High Wind Gust Today: 23 mph 09:39 High Wind Speed: 13 mph 09:31.

[knightrider]

Doesn't look to be as widespread as St Jude not that I thought that was even worth all the hype for most inland areas. This low pressure will produce 60-70mph around western coasts with 35-45mph gusts elsewhere across southern England. Looking back at St Jude in a little more detail from my perspective even billing it the biggest storm since 1987 was total nonsense, maybe for other European countries like Denmark it got that bad but in the UK for most except channel coasts where mean winds of 60mph where recorded and gusts regularly of 70-80mph occasionally 90mph this was a blink or you'll miss it squall line, for most of London and the surrounding home counties the 80mph gusts forecast never materialized and never got much above 60mph, in my location the highest gust was 52mph (not to be under estimated) it was still enough to bring down several trees in my town but I do think the media ramped this up far too much, looking back down the years the Burn's Day storm, Hurricane Lilli, and the October 2000 and 02 storms where all far worse!

[Matty M]

Doesn't look to be as widespread as St Jude not that I thought that was even worth all the hype for most inland areas. This low pressure will produce 60-70mph around western coasts with 35-45mph gusts elsewhere across southern England. Looking back at St Jude in a little more detail from my perspective even billing it the biggest storm since 1987 was total nonsense, maybe for other European countries like Denmark it got that bad but in the UK for most except channel coasts where mean winds of 60mph where recorded and gusts regularly of 70-80mph occasionally 90mph this was a blink or you'll miss it squall line, for most of London and the surrounding home counties the 80mph gusts forecast never materialized and never got much above 60mph, in my location the highest gust was 52mph (not to be under estimated) it was still enough to bring down several trees in my town but I do think the media ramped this up far too much, looking back down the years the Burn's Day storm, Hurricane Lilli, and the October 2000 and 02 storms where all far worse!

Not as widepsread? The system on Monday gave extreme winds to a very localised area!! This is far more widespread.

[Rammie]

Not as widepsread? The system on Monday gave extreme winds to a very localised area!! This is far more widespread.

Indeed!

[snowangel32]

agree this has much more potential than jude.

[Skullzrulerz]

agree this has much more potential than jude.

Its looks like it may be worse than jube yay.

[Summer Sun]

Issued at: 0339 on Sat 2 Nov 2013

 

Valid from: 1200 on Sat 2 Nov 2013

 

Valid to: 2100 on Sat 2 Nov 2013

 

Westerly winds will strengthen through Saturday afternoon and into the evening, bringing gusts of 50-60 mph to many parts of the warning area, and locally 70 mph along exposed west facing coasts. The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption, particularly to travel.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A deep area of low pressure will track eastwards across Ireland and southern Scotland during the course of Saturday and early Sunday, bringing a spell of windy weather to many parts of the UK. The strongest winds are expected to affect parts of southwest England and south Wales during Saturday afternoon and evening, along with squally heavy showers. With many trees still in leaf, the forecast wind gusts are likely to lead to some trees being brought down, whilst leading to difficult driving conditions and also affecting outdoor events. Large waves and some over-topping may affect parts of the coast.

 

Affects

 

Wales and South west England

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383350400&regionName=uk

[widnesgas]

Everyone has been saying the north west could see some of the strongest winds? So how come only the south west has a warning for wind?

[itsnowjoke]

Everyone has been saying the north west could see some of the strongest winds? So how come only the south west has a warning for wind?

Well i just watched the bbc weather and they said that the southern flank of this low is where the worst winds will be and didnt really ramp it up they made it sound like its just a normal storm. Maybe im wrong but thats how it was coming across none of the usual "batten down the hatches"

[khodds]

Wind has just picked up here and had the first of the squally showers, batten down the hatches... Glad my trampoline got totalled by st jude on Monday, it's now dismantled waiting to go to the top. Won't need to worry about it today!

[iand61]

Everyone has been saying the north west could see some of the strongest winds? So how come only the south west has a warning for wind?

I'm a bit puzzled by that as well.To me the position of the system as it moves out to the east puts the NW region in the firing line for some squally rain and very gusty winds, possibly of speeds up to 65-70mph so I would have thought an extension of the yellow zone would be considered by the Met O.TBH though I'm flying out of Manchester on holiday tomorrow morning and don't even want the gales but to me this region is very much in the firing line as things stand.

[itsnowjoke]

I'm a bit puzzled by that as well.To me the position of the system as it moves out to the east puts the NW region in the firing line for some squally rain and very gusty winds, possibly of speeds up to 65-70mph so I would have thought an extension of the yellow zone would be considered by the Met O.TBH though I'm flying out of Manchester on holiday tomorrow morning and don't even want the gales but to me this region is very much in the firing line as things stand.

i thought the winds are stronger on the outer edge of the low ?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The winds will be strongest on its southern flank like most storms that cross us, where the center of the low goes will show where the strongest winds will be

[itsnowjoke]

Met office have no warnings out for my area well not what i can see.. very strange.