Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[radiohead]

It's 'Frol' actually :-D

 

Erol is the low which is now bringing rain into the south tonight. The one thats deepening rapidly in the Atlantic is Friedrich.

Edited November 1, 2013 by radiohead

[radiohead]

989mb at 6pm. In line with the 12Z GFS.

 

[ZONE 51]

Just to confirm regarding posts on lack of warnings There are Netweather warnings for the gales/heavy rain and MetO not sure what the problem is? Also Daily Express had on front page other day about this wkend...

[Matty M]

Maybe a thread title change??

 

West coast of Wales and up Bristol channel risk of 70mph gusts tomorrow near midday. (Upto 75mph along exposed coasts of western Wales). Later a risk of west/northwesterly gusts from 55-70mph across a large swathe of the England as the occlusion moves across the country with a tight gradient.

,

Strongest gusts in squally showers when winds from 925/850hPa may be dragged down to the surface 

[Evening thunder]

I don't think this low/storm is going to be as strong or newsworthy as early on Monday. More widespread, but that doesn't make Mondays event weaker for the parts it hit.

Forecasts gusts are more like 60mph to perhaps locally 70mph on exposed coasts, and more like 45-55mph inland. This compares to 80mph inland gusts which occurred in places on Monday.

 

I'm not sure there's as much of a north/south bias as some think, I remember a lot of media attention/hype over Ex Hurricane Katia that effected northern areas mainly, and that was slightly weaker than the southern event last Monday, with the top gust recorded anywhere being 81mph.

 

Of course the Met Office haven't issued a warning for the media to pick up on, although much of the media hype about Mondays event was hardly sensible.I think the Met played it quite well personally.

 

This event maybe worthy of a yellow warning perhaps, though nothing more atm in my opinion.Edited to correct position of 'atm'

Edited November 1, 2013 by Stormmad26

[BARRY]

Just to confirm regarding posts on lack of warnings There are Netweather warnings for the gales/heavy rain and MetO not sure what the problem is? Also Daily Express had on front page other day about this wkend...

 

There you go then must be true if it was in daily crap

[radiohead]

@MattHugo81

@DerekTheWeather - Yeah sure looks lively N Wales coast right round to Fylde Coast tmoz night, 50-60KT gusts look poss.

 

[Sprites]

Atlantic storm next weekend as in 9-10 Nov. or this weekend ? Or last weekend?

Edited November 1, 2013 by Sprites

[alexisj9]

Atlantic storm next weekend as in 9-10 Nov. or this weekend ? Or last weekend?

Tomorrow

[Matty M]

I've sent a PM to a mod to get the thread title changed.

[Zenarcher]

High Res NMM model shows strong gusts on Saturday evening, between 50 to 60mph perhaps a touch more in some places,

 

 

Strong gusts 50 to 60mph and again probably more in some parts through late Saturday and the early hours of Sunday,

 

[snowangel32]

Wow seems like this storm is getting more potent by the hour this could be far more widespread than Jude was can't belive there's no coverage on the news of the potential this storm has especially if it upgrades and also people will be in real danger if they have bonfires and fireworks.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I've sent a PM to a mod to get the thread title changed.

 

yeah, do not want another storm next weekend as well! was a new forum due to start anyway pmsl

[The PIT]

18 0z no real change slight downgrade for us as everything slightly further south. Got to admit though this is the quietest windy spell I've known still waiting for the first real autumn blow.

[cheese]

Things are slightly further south, but there are still some pretty tight isobars  for our region as the low clears off:

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by cheese

[alexisj9]

18 0z no real change slight downgrade for us as everything slightly further south. Got to admit though this is the quietest windy spell I've known still waiting for the first real autumn blow.

That's what I was dreading, that today's system was further south then thought, so tomorrows will be too. I hope it will not be to strong.

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z NAE is even deeper than the 12z. Winds barrelling across from Liverpool bay across Cheshire, the peaks and N Midlands as backed up by the NMM image further up.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wind gusts increasing all the time on the Metoffice maps aswell. 57mph peak shown for Southport earlier, up to 59mph and now showing 61mph.

[wimblettben]

Personally I would have indeed thought that there would be a yellow 'be aware' warning out now by the met office as widespread inland gusts of 45-55mph could still cause some minor damage i.e to trees ect.

 

Although a 50mph wind may not seem that much, (believe me it is) fireworks being able to be set high in the sky and not come dangerously crashing down in those types of winds would be quite a miricale!

Edited November 1, 2013 by wimblettben

[Mark Neal.]

Looks like northern areas seeing worst of the Wind this time around. Still gonna a very windy and gusty down south aswell. Flooding risk with all the rainwater we have had in last few weeks now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Personally I would have indeed thought that there would be a yellow 'be aware' warning out now by the met office as widespread inland gusts of 45-55mph could still cause some tree damage.

 

Although a 50mph wind may not seem that much, (believe me it is) fireworks being able to be set high in the sky and not come dangerously crashing down in those types of winds would be quite a miricale!

 

Well latest gust estimations on the Metoffice page seem to be into the warning criteria now so I don't know. Maybe we'll see one tomorrow morning.

Edited November 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[carl1980]

Are the winds set to peak at midnight tomorrow around Merseyside ??

[Cheshire Freeze]

Are the winds set to peak at midnight tomorrow around Merseyside ??

 

Around then, yes.

[Mokidugway]

Either way out at 8 am tommorrow to double up the fly battons on the extension im working on at the moment !!.

[Snow and storms]

The storm has a much nicer structure than Monday's. You can see a really clear defined circular rotation. Mondays was just a mess that never really formed together.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html