Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[Matty M]

You can see the cloud head developing to the west of Ireland with some dry air to its southwest indicating it is undergoing quite fast deepening.

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by Matty M

[Dr Forinor]

You can see the cloud head developing to the west of Ireland with some dry air to its southwest indicating it is undergoing quite fast deepening.

Where/how did you get that? Edited November 1, 2013 by Dr Forinor

[Matty M]

Where/how did you get that?

Sorry it's on a private server, not for public use. But if you take a look around the EUMETEOSAT website you will find similar water vapour imagery.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Matty M

[Coast]

Sorry it's on a private server, not for public use. But if you take a look around the EUMETEOSAT website you will find similar water vapour imagery.

 

Nice view, Sat Rep shows it but not in as much glorious detail:

 

 

MetO still good:

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html

Edited November 1, 2013 by Coast

[legritter]

 Of course not the potent gusts of last monday but certainly some indications of more generall strong gusts possible further inland ,and with all the rain before and during and of course the fact that trees are still in leaf i personally expect to see the news being dominated again by the weather .it will be interesting to see any updated warnings as its about now that they are issued .must be totally frustrating for event organisers familys and of course transport companys who have to take into account the publics safety .certainly an interesting 3 days on the cards .but at this stage nothing epic but certainly wild autumn weather ,although epic if it causes you personally any damage .

[radiohead]

Where/how did you get that?

 

This is a nice animated view.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

It looks to be developing nicely.

[Matty M]

This is a nice animated view.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

It looks to be developing nicely.

Yes looks nice already!

[Mapantz]

Just shows the southern biased media . Not even a mention of anything

 

Well there aren't any warnings out, are there? As i alluded to yesterday. This N/S devide talk really needs to stop, it's like a broken record but it should have no place in here.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Mapantz

[Matty M]

This is a nice animated view.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

It looks to be developing nicely.

If i was looking at that and hadn't seen any models etc. I would say that it was heading towards the Shetlands!

[Steve C]

Well there aren't any warnings out, are there? As i alluded to yesterday. This N/S devide talk really needs to stop, it's like a broken record but it should have no place in here.

Yes, there were still a few hundred properties without power this morning in Suffolk and Essex. Very, very unlikely that anything this weekend will be anywhere near so disruptive.http://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/suffolk_hundreds_of_homes_remain_without_power_following_monday_s_storm_1_2955000

[johnholmes]

This is a nice animated view.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

It looks to be developing nicely.

 

yes that sat link is a very good one for watching the upper cloud especially 

[radiohead]

Yes looks nice already!

 

We probably won't get a decent observation now until it gets close to M6. Met Office charts will be best estimates.

[Dr Forinor]

Sorry it's on a private server, not for public use. But if you take a look around the EUMETEOSAT website you will find similar water vapour imagery.

Thank you.

[Matty M]

Lack of obs in the area could be troublesome for the 12z models.Look at the Synop showing a depth of 996hPa, there is no way this system is 996hPa, probably more like 986hPa or lower.http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013110112&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

Looking at the latest NAE in detail, it appears it has had a decent handle on it so far.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Matty M

[Coast]

ESTOFEX:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 01 Nov 2013 06:00 to Sat 02 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 31 Oct 2013 23:03

 

A stronger/more dynamic shallow warm core depression undergoes rapid intensification just west of Ireland at 21 Z onwards. Intense gradient flow along its southern side remains just west of Ireland. Of concern will be eastward spreading dry slot (00Z ), which could induce enhanced convection along the backside of the cold front/occlusion. Severe gusts due to enhanced downward impulse might be the result, but low-end MUCAPE kept confidence below a level-1 area. Back-bent occlusion with a 35 m/s 850 hPa streak remains just west of Ireland until 06Z.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Local forecast just mentioned gusts to 70mph tomorrow evening. So the question is, why no warning? Unless the Metoffice are not seeing it being an issue due to peak winds occurring overnight.

Edited November 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[johnholmes]

Lack of obs in the area could be troublesome for the 12z models.Look at the Synop showing a depth of 996hPa, there is no way this system is 996hPa, probably more like 986hPa or lower.http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013110112&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

Looking at the latest NAE in detail, it appears it has had a decent handle on it so far.

 

best you await the Met Fax depth and position, after all they spend all their working lives drawing up such charts!

I have several times urged caution on using Extra charts for depth or indeed position at times-they are computer generated and thus lack a human input

Edited November 1, 2013 by johnholmes

[radiohead]

993mb at 12pm

 

GFS for the same time :

Edited November 1, 2013 by radiohead

[Matty M]

Looks like a classic storm now. Still dubious of the 12z Fax idea of the central depth. But they know best.

 

Just coming into view in the visible images on Sat24 now.

 

Beautiful classic developing Atlantic Depression.

 

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=false

[Boro Snow]

Local forecast just mentioned gusts to 70mph tomorrow evening. So the question is, why no warning? Unless the Metoffice are not seeing it being an issue due to peak winds occurring overnight.

But there was a amber warning in places last weekend when it was just an overnight event

Edited November 1, 2013 by Lee aka Boro Snow

[nodrog]

Looks like metfy are on it now...

Gale Warning - Sunday 3rd November

Edited November 1, 2013 by Tangerine Lion

[Man With Beard]

Well there aren't any warnings out, are there? As i alluded to yesterday. This N/S devide talk really needs to stop, it's like a broken record but it should have no place in here.

It does seem odd, doesn't it. Let's bear in mind that, last Monday, the vast majority of places actually had maximum gusts under 75mph and there was still damage. (But, by coincidence?, London was one of the worst affected places). So not really that much stronger than this weekend's storm. And 60mph was shown as enough to cause trouble with trees in full leaf. Having said that, I questioned the MO last week about inland gusts being so high and the MO proved to be nearer the mark than me (as they indeed should be!) so maybe I should keep quiet and give them the benefit of the doubt!

[Jimmyh]

But there was a amber warning in places last weekend when it was just an overnight event

 

most of windspeeds hit at easrly monday morning rush hour

[Boro Snow]

most of windspeeds hit at easrly monday morning rush hour

not all the areas did that is what i am saying for some places it was an overnight thing

[Matty M]

Looks like a large area of England are going to see a swathe of gusts from 60-70mph tomorrow evening and night.

 

Good consensus now between the major models.

 

Appears the first swathe of high winds will just affect parts of the southern and south-western coastal parts of Ireland at first but the wrap-around occlusion will bring a large increase in wind-speeds elsewhere by evening.