Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[NO LONGER POSTING]

BBC Weather is showing average wind speed of 30 mph between 14:00 - 16:00 on Saturday. I can't wait. This could be one hell of a storm, here.

 

Nothing out the ordinary

[P-M]

That's ok until it takes the roof off your house, crushes your dad's car or (god forbid) removes your ability to post on here because a falling tree cuts off your leccy.

Get real, weather extremes are there to be witnessed safely and with care, wishing for an exceptional wind storm to hit you in a static location is just stupid or immature.

 

 

Completely disagree with the tone on this - I am sick of people on this forum laying down the high and mighty "oh people die" "trees will fall down"

 

I do not want any loss of life or damage to property- HOWEVER I am an extreme weather enthusiast like many others on this forum - this is a WEATHER forum and we should be able to say what we want in terms of preference etc without someone thinking they are the patron saint of morals.

 

I get a buzz from extreme weather and no one will tell me it's moronic or stupid because that's just what I like -  I balance this by having respect for nature though and wouldn't for example go swimming in gales etc etc - but if we were forecast for 100+mph winds or a 10ft High blizzard then no-one bar the government would get me to leave the area - if I was hurt that would be my fault not for people on a weather forum to preach!  

 

Edit - I then read this back and wondered why I blew a gasket because of a comment on a weather forum lol 

Edited November 1, 2013 by P-M

[radiohead]

Some strong winds for Wales on the NAE. Almost reaching storm force along the coast, gales inland in places.

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Nothing out the ordinary

It certainly is for the local area. The last time I saw this was on 22/11/2012 and there was a lovely storm. Though, it may be ordinary for places like W Scotland, W N England and W Wales. So, this is quite a strong storm for, here.

[Coast]

Going by the latest model output.. I think the met office will be having a bit of a head scratch this morning...

 

I'm scratching my head TBH. GFS and NMM seemed to have backed away a little from the big gusts although Wales still seems to get a blast on Saturday night. It looks like the rain potential has subsided a bit from earlier indications with the worst coming late Sunday night?

 

Met O still have some gusts up around 60 mph over the weekend in places (South coast for one) but in general I'm thinking based on current info this morning, this may not be quite as ferocious as was indicated over the last few days. Lets see what today's runs and indicators bring us.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Coast

[radiohead]

0Z ECM has gusts up to 65-70 mph for Wales.

 

[Man With Beard]

0Z ECM has gusts up to 65-70 mph for Wales.

For all the praise the Met Office got last weekend (mostly deserved), they were a little slow to react to developments e.g. the system not moving as far north, gusts more in the 60-80mph range rather than 80+mph. This situation seems similar. Though this storm probably won't match last weeks, some western areas definitely deserve a warning now of 50-70mph, which is enough to bring down a tree or two.

[Cyclonic]

I really hope it stays quieter here on the IOW, we most certainly could not cope with anymore rain, ive never seen flooding like we've had recently, and even roads closed that have never been before. The ground is so saturated and majority of the island is fields/grassland.

[radiohead]

In reference to the low approaching on Saturday.

 

It was 997mb at 6am.

 

06Z GFS initialized it at 1004mb at 6am.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by radiohead

[Coast]

06 GFS has again gone with the reduced rain element over the weekend, apart from Scotland and the NW on Saturday night:

 

 

Early Monday sees it creeping into the SW and South, so with a bit of luck it may be one element to take out of any worries for the weekend if you plan to be out and about:

 

 

Still looking gusty on Saturday night for Wales and the West in particular:

 

 

Transferring across to the East:

 

 

So 55 mph/60mph gusts likely if this plays out?

Edited November 1, 2013 by Coast

[johnholmes]

It was 997mb at 6am.

 

06Z GFS initialized it at 1004mb at 6am.

 

 

 

I'd be more inclined to accept the Met O centre of 1002mb?

[radiohead]

I'd be more inclined to accept the Met O centre of 1002mb?

 

Hi John, I should clarify I'm talking about the low further west that will approaching over the weekend, not the 1002mb low coming up from the southwest today.

[nodrog]

You cant beat a good fax chart, still prefer them over anything especially like the one above from Radiohead. I'd frame them around the house off the eventful ones, if my wife would let me.

[johnholmes]

Hi John, I should clarify I'm talking about the low further west that will approaching over the weekend, not the 1002mb low coming up from the southwest today.

 

yes once I got my brain in gear and looked at the Atlantic I realised that so apologies

[Matty M]

Looks like a large swathe of England & Wales will be at risk of gusts from 50-70mph during Saturday

 

Isn't it amazing that most will experience winds higher than experienced during Monday's system, yet barely a peep out of the media or the MetO

 

 

-- I  see we are largely in the dark with pressure falls to our west with not many ships in the region of the developing low.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Matty M

[radiohead]

Looks like a large swathe of England & Wales will be at risk of gusts from 50-70mph during Saturday

 

Isn't it amazing that most will experience winds higher than experienced during Monday's system, yet barely a peep out of the media or the MetO?

 

I'd imagine there will be updated warnings before noon.

Edited November 1, 2013 by radiohead

[Coast]

Met O 9pm output still going with up to 60 mph max gusts:

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=54.63&fcTime=1383382800

 

That's still quite enough thanks.

 

 

[Chess01]

Just shows the southern biased media . Not even a mention of anything

[Dr Forinor]

How it looks this morning.

[The PIT]

Just shows the southern biased media . Not even a mention of anything

The gusts are for southern coastal regions on the provided pic LOL.

NMM disagrees with the Met Office though having weaker gusts over all. However South Wales and South West England may 60 mph gusts and later the north sea coast will see some lively gusts. Away from those areas nothing anything of note once again.

Edited November 1, 2013 by The PIT

[Tamara]

The distribution of where the strongest winds will be is quite different to last Monday but, overall, this low pressure is not quite as powerful as that one. It seems the models have waxed and waned with its strength but I think that with this being a weather site it is possible to 'overtalk' some of this weather and try and make it bigger than it actually is. 

 

Ireland most especially, but also western and some south western coasts certainly look to see the strongest winds but gusts look closer to 65 mph (70 mph maybe around Irish coasts) rather than the 80 mph + gusts seen in southern districts at the start of this week. That is strong enough of course, but as always, perspective is best to be kept and on that basis this is why perhaps this low pressure is not being focussed on quite so much as earlier this week by the METO. It has nothing whatsoever to do though with any north/south divide .

[radiohead]

Severe gale warnings for Lundy and Irish Sea.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~IrishSea

[Kiwi]

Hi John, I should clarify I'm talking about the low further west that will approaching over the weekend, not the 1002mb low coming up from the southwest today.

The 997 and 1002 lows are very close together. Any idea what  impact this has on the way that they develop?

[Coast]

That rain overnight into Monday now showing up as a warning for the South:

 

 

Yellow warning of Rain

 

Issued at:  1016 on Thu 31 Oct 2013

 

 

Valid from:  1800 on Sun 3 Nov 2013

 

Valid to: 1200 on Mon 4 Nov 2013

 

Rain, heavy at times, is expected to spread eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing during Monday. This additional rainfall, following recent wet weather, means that the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding. A frontal zone moving across the Atlantic this weekend is expected to extend eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing away southeastwards during Monday. Associated rain is likely to be heavy at times with accumulations typically between 10 and 20 mm and locally close to 30 mm. Conditions will also become rather windy in English Channel coastal areas where gales may develop for a time during Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=sw&fcTime=1383436800&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

[radiohead]

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 1h

W COUNTRY Conversely, confidence in an increasingly windy & showery story Sat PM is high. Gusts potentially 70mph Bristol Channel coasts...