Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[pip22]

Do not forget that the low is still tightening its isobars. About time it reaches the eastern coast than it will have a sting in its tail. So maybe we could see 60-70mph gusts for a time in Northern England. (72 hours later)

Exactly CS. There's nothing indicative to 70mph gusts further north.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

Edited October 31, 2013 by pip22

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Alex Deakin just mentioned it getting 'lively' and gusts to 50-60mph so it seems to be creeping up in terms of strength.

 

I expect consolidation of increased liveliness...

 

BFTP

[radiohead]

The track isn't nailed down yet. A GFS-like track would result in the strongest winds along the west coast of Ireland, weaker as it reached England/Wales. A more southerly track would keep the winds south of Ireland and into southwest England and Wales, though a southerly tracking low would usually be a little weaker.

 

It will be windy somewhere at least, but just where and how windy remains to be seen.

[Bobby]

I'd love a good storm but it looks like a standard Autumnal gale coming up to me. Windy for sure with gales in exposed places especially but nothing to write home about, unless it bombs but that doesn't look like being the case.

[radiohead]

I'd love a good storm but it looks like a standard Autumnal gale coming up to me. Windy for sure with gales in exposed places especially but nothing to write home about, unless it bombs but that doesn't look like being the case.

 

It deepens 20mb in 12 hours on the 12Z GFS, which is certainly bombogenesis. If that verified of course.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Alex Deakin just mentioned it getting 'lively' and gusts to 50-60mph so it seems to be creeping up in terms of strength.

I really hope so, here.

[matty40s]

I really hope so, here.

That's ok until it takes the roof off your house, crushes your dad's car or (god forbid) removes your ability to post on here because a falling tree cuts off your leccy.

Get real, weather extremes are there to be witnessed safely and with care, wishing for an exceptional wind storm to hit you in a static location is just stupid or immature.

[cobbett]

That's ok until it takes the roof off your house, crushes your dad's car or (god forbid) removes your ability to post on here because a falling tree cuts off your leccy.

Get real, weather extremes are there to be witnessed safely and with care, wishing for an exceptional wind storm to hit you in a static location is just stupid or immature.

Lighten up  - i dont think we're talking hurricane katrina here, just a minor gale. So what if he wants a storm, its a weather forum, we each have our likes and dislikes - grow up

[Matty M]

NAE might have it.

 

Autumnal Low over the UK, windy conditions but no really threatening power in the system. The deepening appears to have stalled. Nonetheless there would be widespread inland gusts of 40-50 knots.

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by Matty M

[johnholmes]

The most realistic idea of what/when/where is probably the Fax chart. The latest outputs this evening show the second low tracking a shade further north, the gradient strength looks no more than an average autumn gale. Nor does the first one.

50-60 mph is fine to experience nature, 70-80mph is not much fun and 80-90 is definitely not something I want to experience again.

The latter two both occurred during work on Shetland 1984-85, one at Lerwick blowing tiles off roofs and embedding them in the next building, the latter one shifting a 275,000ton tanker in ballast and about to be loaded.

Nope watch on a video, not to be in one again thank you, much like been in 47  and 62-63 winters, gots the scars, not again thank you. But each to their own I suppose.

[cheese]

But each to their own I suppose.

Indeed.. bring on the severe gales with gusts exceeding 70mph, like they did here in December 2011, resulting in no deaths.

Edited October 31, 2013 by cheese

[paul m]

That's ok until it takes the roof off your house, crushes your dad's car or (god forbid) removes your ability to post on here because a falling tree cuts off your leccy.

Get real, weather extremes are there to be witnessed safely and with care, wishing for an exceptional wind storm to hit you in a static location is just stupid or immature.

Ease up The Lad is young and he really loves his weather.

[Eskimo]

That's ok until it takes the roof off your house, crushes your dad's car or (god forbid) removes your ability to post on here because a falling tree cuts off your leccy.

Get real, weather extremes are there to be witnessed safely and with care, wishing for an exceptional wind storm to hit you in a static location is just stupid or immature.

Probably a bit harsh. People go bungee jumping, knowing that what separates them between instant death and safety is an elastic cord. You know the risks pretty well but you can't resist the thrill. The same applies with those who chase hurricanes or tornadoes, are they automatically stupid or immature? Thus the same can be applied with this scenario. 

Edited October 31, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[smithyweather]

Met office have upgraded Saturdays forecast for 5c max with sleet down to 300m.  Pretty good going. 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by smithyweather

[Richie V]

Sorry a tad off topic but, I have expierienced many a 90 mph gust and I have to say, I will not be satisfied til it kills me. This is probily a deeply selfish thing to say cus wind on this magnitude nearly always costs lives. Sorry but, this is the beast within me, call it an extreme sport that affects many if you will.

Ric

[Dr Forinor]

Will see how this looks tomorrow morning.

The blue highlight pin is London.

Edited October 31, 2013 by Dr Forinor

[Eskimo]

Will see how this looks tomorrow morning.The blue highlight pin is London.

What app is that?

[Dr Forinor]

What app is that?

Living Earth. For Apple products, not Android unfortunately.

[The PIT]

Looking like 2nd strongest system forecast to hit our region so far this autumn. The other one didn't deliver and was much weaker than forecast. Since this one is getting little attention it may well deliver something in the 50 plus wind gust wise.

[Matty M]

Yes, this system has the potential to catch people out.

 

 

An illustration of the power of the media.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Matty M

[radiohead]

WRF shows it 975mb and deepening as it crosses the UK.

 

[Coast]

Overnight GFS from Lightning Wizard has the main area of wind gusts over a large part of the UK, with the particularly high ones (up to 65 knts?) getting into Wales tomorrow early evening:

 

 

Interestingly, last nights run on GFS has taken away much of the rain and flooding threat for the weekend,the highest amounts looking to be late Sunday into Monday:

 

 

Although the tip of Kent seems to get most of that for the next couple of days. Hopefully a better sign if GFS is correct, but still looking very windy in parts.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Coast

[Guest William Grimsley]

That's ok until it takes the roof off your house, crushes your dad's car or (god forbid) removes your ability to post on here because a falling tree cuts off your leccy.

Get real, weather extremes are there to be witnessed safely and with care, wishing for an exceptional wind storm to hit you in a static location is just stupid or immature.

I think you are going a bit OTT. 50 - 60 mph will not take the roof off any house.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Going by the latest model output.. I think the met office will be having a bit of a head scratch this morning...

[Guest William Grimsley]

BBC Weather is showing average wind speed of 30 mph between 14:00 - 16:00 on Saturday. I can't wait. This could be one hell of a storm, here.