Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[alexisj9]

Headline from Express the other day 'Megastorm' 100mph wind to bring 48 hours of utter hell'

Well it did reach 105 in the Dover straight lol. But that's not on land.

[Storm Track]

I don't believe them with Daily Express either. Just dreaming about it haha Express says New Deadly Storm On Way, nah. just joked it!Sorry about that English is not good, either.

Sorry I don't understand, are you saying that its unrealistic for the Express to say that, or that its unrealistic that its going to happenJust unrealistic but I don't believe it that Daily Express is just winding you up with loads of rubbish haha

Edited October 29, 2013 by Storm Track

[Roger J Smith]

Friday looks more like a rain event for most, possible 50-60 mph gusts near the Channel. Could see another 25-50 mm rainfall in the same areas as last Sunday night. Then Saturday so far appears only moderately windy this time generally across Wales and the Midlands but without severe gusts -- I am concerned this could change closer to the time as there is a strong energy peak on the weekend, and note also that any stronger winds would phase with higher astronomical tides of the new moon which falls on Sunday 3rd. At the moment, however, model consensus is only 40-50 mph gusts with the weekend system. So I would say for the time being the major theme is to watch for any flood potential from Friday's heavy rainfalls.

[Guest William Grimsley]

For the next 5 days for Newton Poppleford the wind speeds forecast on BBC Weather are quite worrying. Currently, the highest wind speed forecast for the next 5 days for Newton Poppleford on BBC Weather is 02/11/2013 21:00: 27 mph. That could bring wind gusts towards 60 mph again, here.

[Coast]

Friday looks more like a rain event for most, possible 50-60 mph gusts near the Channel. 

 

GFS for Friday is touch and go for the South coast currently, with it more towards France. If it did touch then it does look like we could get gusts in that order of magnitude:

 

 

 

Sunday late into Monday still looking like the prime time for the next particularly gusty period if GFS has it right:

 

 

But again on the current run it's over in France:

 

Edited October 30, 2013 by Coast

[Nick F]

Going to be interesting to see how the models perform with the weekend's low, GFS and UKMO fairly similar in timing and track t+72, by t+96 GFS deeper and further north than UKMO. 00z ECM deter doesn't make much of any deepening and runs an open wave across northern England which eventually merges with the 'parent' low by t+96 between Scotland and Norway.

 

GFS and UKMO performed fairly well with Monday's low, ECM not so well. Who will excel this time?

Edited October 30, 2013 by Nick F

[Coast]

Latest Netweather NMM also going for the higher gusts to our South, timing looks about the same as St Judes but strength is no where near and most of it happens in the Channel if this transpires:

 

 

 

 

[Nick F]

Latest Netweather NMM also going for the higher gusts to our South, timing looks about the same as St Judes but strength is no where near and most of it happens in the Channel if this transpires:

 

NMM gusts 041113 03z.png

 

NMM wind 041113 03z.png

 

Yes, after Saturday's low, UKMO, GFS and ECM run another low across S England on Monday too. Though for now, strongest winds look to be over France. 

 

The strong Atlantic jet just keeps 'em coming!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not sure if the models have a grip yet on the weekend.. Throwing out all kinds of ideas.. It wouldn't take much to bring 40-50mph gusts to the regions effectedby Mondays storm, what is interesting is the low that yesterday forms similar to st jude but does not gain its strength be interesting come Friday what the models are showing.. But I think a "suprise" will pop up soon... If you want to call it that? :/

[Matty M]

Well the CMA continues to be bullish re. the first wave!

 

Brings a severe storm across the UK.

 

 

[radiohead]

Interesting that the GEM has changed from showing an intense 963mb low last night to a 990mb wave this morning.

[Matty M]

Some old-school forecasting for some today if youre interested. Check the region west of Azores for development on Synopsis maps/satellite imagery.

 

If we see pressure falls with a low centre near 1005hPa by tonight then the short term forecast could change with a more intense system approaching on Friday. If this system can skip to the polar side of the Jetstreak, it has all the ingredients to under RACY.

 

- There is beginning to be an emphasis on the initial wave becoming more of a concern.

 

There is a chance of very strong winds and heavy rain through the channel in association with it.

 

It looks remarkably similar to the system that led to damage a few days ago. 

 

Next 24 hours could be a rollercoaster ride!

Edited October 30, 2013 by Matty M

[Captain Shortwave]

None of the operationals shows anything of any note, GFS shows Gales for Northern Ireland, northern England and the central belt. ECM/UKMO/GEM show less than that. It will take more than a few GFS peturbations and the CMA to bring any concern. The models have been pretty consistent in not beefing up the next couple of systems to the extent of the St Judes day storm.

[Matty M]

Latest NAE has initial system slightly deeper, centre near 1003hPa Thursday  6am.

 

- I would say the MetO are watching the development of this system closely as another increase

in depth of this system on subsequent runs could see it move poleward, interact with the intense

jet-streak and become a threatening storm.

 

Edited October 30, 2013 by Matty M

[Summer Sun]

The sun has a more sensible take on the winds this weekend unlike the express yesterday

 

They are saying 40mph gusts similar to those last Sunday before the storm arrived

[Mesoscale]

The sun has a more sensible take on the winds this weekend unlike the express yesterday

 

They are saying 40mph gusts similar to those last Sunday before the storm arrived

I can't believe the Express can print such drivel, are there no laws against inciting moral panic?Even 40mph winds could send trees toppling after St Judes Storm weakened them. 

Edited October 30, 2013 by Mesoscale

[legritter]

IN my opinion certain papers will always make weather news exciting ,as we know it sells the paper ,but when you get my age you tend to read between the lines  Literally .certainly yet another disturbed spell of weather coming up and todays runs will be interesting as we get nearer the time ,definately the potential coming up again for some headline news ,so keep an eye on Fax charts etc .the met office did a grand professional job on mondays storm ,but we all know it could of been worse ,with the low crossing slightly further south indeed passing across bristol area this saved places in the northern portion of the amber warning area for wind ,from a far greater risk .indeed i was up and about and in early hours moon stars and a flat calm short spell was endured in my location 15 miles south west of bristol .i would say today could see a weather watch issued for the start of this weekend and if the situation and synoptics later today and tomorrow come into play warnings could be issued tomorrow ,but im sure more runs will be needed and the Met office will be on the ball ,

[Coast]

Interesting morning update from MetO 5 day on wind gusts.

Friday nothing outstanding, a brisk but normal Autumn storm?

 

 

Sunday morning of note with 59mph gusts forecast for my location on the SE coast:

 

 

I'm feeling this looks about right at them moment and yet again I'l be in the 'zone'!!

 

 

 

 

[radiohead]

06Z GFS would bring 50+ mph gusts to parts of southwest/south England and Wales.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

06Z GFS would bring 50+ mph gusts to parts of southwest/south England and Wales.

 

Not again 

[Coast]

06Z GFS would bring 50+ mph gusts to parts of southwest/south England and Wales.

 

A quick animated output of the 06Z for sustained wind:

 

[TwisterGirl81]

06Z GFS would bring 50+ mph gusts to parts of southwest/south England and Wales.

 

Bring it on and I hope it gets upgraded too!  I do wonder when the next big storm will be, I didn't think the storm at the weekend was as bad as the media were making out to be, just a slightly stronger gale than usual in Autumn....

Edited October 30, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[Coast]

I didn't think the storm at the weekend was as bad as the media were making out to be, just a slightly stronger gale than usual in Autumn....

 

With the caveat 'in your location' I guess? It may not have been as bad as some of the media descriptions were calling beforehand, but the loss of several lives still means it was significant for some.

[Skullzrulerz]

Yellow warning by met office for most of southern england.It will not let me put the image on my post.

[wimblettben]

With the caveat 'in your location' I guess? It may not have been as bad as some of the media descriptions were calling beforehand, but the loss of several lives still means it was significant for some.

Yeah it wasn't your usual storm for southeastern areas.

 

To be honest it looks to me that the storm didn't deepen as quick as was forecast which is why us lot in the Southwest got off more lightly. Most areas around here had frequent 50-60mph wind gusts and then a few isolated 70mph+ with the shortlived squall.

 

It could have been a lot worse, we could have woken up to nasty 70-80mph gusts in a much more larger spread and they would have lasted for a lot longer.