Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[Matty M]

The severe wind gust which led to headlines (99mph at Needles, IOW) was an outlier related to the an extremely exposed anemometer on a cliff top on an exposed island which does not represent surface conditions. The peak gust on a mainland coastal station was 82mph.

you still on about this...shall i ask for it to be took down ??? and placed in my back garden

Yes

 

I know it was extremely windy on the IOW on Monday morning but the 99mph reading was not correct for surface OBS, I'm sure there was gusts above 80mph however!

Edited October 29, 2013 by Matty M

[Cyclonic]

Yes

 

I know it was extremely windy on the IOW on Monday morning but the 99mph reading was not correct for surface OBS, I'm sure there was gusts above 80mph however!

On it  LOL!! 

[The PIT]

Weekends storm looking like it's gradually going the way of the recycle bin as the week goes on. Storm free autumn for here is a possibility.

[Benny123]

I don't think this weekends storm will be much to talk about. It begins to fill quite far West of the UK before riding the Jet over us again. We'll see, charts are all over the place at this stage

[arni]

Weekends storm looking like it's gradually going the way of the recycle bin as the week goes on. Storm free autumn for here is a possibility.

could you elaborate? Last CEP run looks good

 

Edited October 29, 2013 by arni

[Sainsbo]

Some of the GEFS ensembles still showing a pretty nasty low over the weekend.

 

 

 

Most of them do show the low however the track and intensity vary wildly, and the speed at which it comes through also seems up for question.

 

GFS and ECM both have the low but firther south and slightly less developed.

 

 

 

GEM has the low quite well developed, developing quite rapidly but has it centered further north.

 

 

I expect most of these will change dramatically by Sunday though, however if the models are as good with this system as they were for St Jude then this is potentially one to watch.

Edited October 29, 2013 by Sainsbo

[Jax]

looking "breezy" for many this weekend so far, it may all change I know.

[The PIT]

could you elaborate? Last CEP run looks good

 

 

The reds disappearing gradually from each gfs run. Should have seen it yesterday and day before. Not a huge amount to get excited about there. Less than last Sunday for example.

Edited October 29, 2013 by The PIT

[RCT]

The reds disappearing gradually from each gfs run. Should have seen it yesterday and day before. Not a huge amount to get excited about there. Less than last Sunday for example.

Still plenty of time for them to return.. 

[bobbydog]

just to clarify a few things regarding this north/south divide thing about the st jude storm and for those further north worrying about getting something similar.

we had many posts about the storm saying "scotland gets worse storms all the time" "its a media-hyped non-event" etc, etc.

it is true (in part)- most atlantic storms take a more northerly track, hitting the north west and scotland much more frequently than the south. they are often more severe.

that is where the point lies- the met office warnings reflect the disruption that any storm is likely to cause, not necessarily the severity of the storm itself. those areas more frequently hit have 'adapted' over the years to nature. as matty pointed out, trees are a major factor in any disruption. think about it, in areas of frequent storms, any weaker trees will not survive therefore there will be less of them to fall next time round. and so it goes on. only the strong survive.

down in the south however, there are a larger number of weaker trees which are rarely subjected to such storms, therefore when one hits, it is much more likely to bring more of them down. combine this with a very concentrated population and infrastructure, you have potential chaos.

of course there are heavily populated areas in the north which do suffer damage in such storms but many of these places have been built up over hundreds of years taking into account, prevailing weather conditions.

 

and before any northerners jump on me, i'm originally from the windswept county of northumberland and have myself experienced many a stronger storm than this one....

Edited October 29, 2013 by bobbydog

[Matty M]

Well CMA still develops the first wave along the extreme jet near 72hrs

 

Have the Chinese has many modelling successes? Consistent with this feature last 4 runs!

 

Edited October 29, 2013 by Matty M

[iand61]

just to clarify a few things regarding this north/south divide thing about the st jude storm and for those further north worrying about getting something similar.we had many posts about the storm saying "scotland gets worse storms all the time" "its a media-hyped non-event" etc, etc.it is true (in part)- most atlantic storms take a more northerly track, hitting the north west and scotland much more frequently than the south. they are often more severe.that is where the point lies- the met office warnings reflect the disruption that any storm is likely to cause, not necessarily the severity of the storm itself. those areas more frequently hit have 'adapted' over the years to nature. as matty pointed out, trees are a major factor in any disruption. think about it, in areas of frequent storms, any weaker trees will not survive therefore there will be less of them to fall next time round. and so it goes on. only the strong survive.down in the south however, there are a larger number of weaker trees which are rarely subjected to such storms, therefore when one hits, it is much more likely to bring more of them down. combine this with a very concentrated population and infrastructure, you have potential chaos.of course there are heavily populated areas in the north which do suffer damage in such storms but many of these places have been build up over hundreds of years taking into account, prevailing weather conditions. and before any northerners jump on me, i'm originally from the windswept county of northumberland and have myself experienced many a stronger storm than this one....

Fully agree with this and that is from a northerner.Where I live the tree line is about 1200 ft and anything above that is stunted and deformed by the prevailing wind and the winds can be savage even at those quite modest altitudes.I've walked in the Lakes and Pennines on days when crawling to a summit cairn was the only way to move and small rocks have been picked up and thrown by the wind.Throughout the north, houses and farms were built with the weather in mind and modern building methods, although probably much better insulated would just not stand up to what the elements could throw at them.

[Mark Neal.]

Well CMA still develops the first wave along the extreme jet near 72hrs

 

Have the Chinese has many modelling successes? Consistent with this feature last 4 runs!

 

Wasn't the most reliable last winter when it throwed out many beautiful easterly synoptics (jan/feb), which never came close to actually materialising! 

[The PIT]

Still plenty of time for them to return.. 

Eye but normally downgrades continue. However theres always got to be an exception to the case.

[ANYWEATHER]

I think we have to realize that the Atlantic is in full control ,a few brief ridges, which allows a ground frost in one or two locations, perhaps some stormy weather too ,we have not had an Autumn like this for a good few years,  In my opinion this is normal service , perhaps the switich will happen mid November too colder conditions 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

could you elaborate? Last CEP run looks good

Sorry I'm nor buying that.. In the sense that.. If that came off.. It would make st jude a fart in a thunderstorm

[cheese]

Eye but normally downgrades continue. However theres always got to be an exception to the case.

Don't take the GFS wind charts as a gospel - they definitely did not show 70mph gusts inland before the storm just gone actually struck.

[Steve C]

The storm wasn't really that severe wind wise unless you were living by the coast or in Europe. Unfortunately trees being in full leaf meant that inland wind gusts in the southeast between 55-70mph lead to falling trees which caused tragedy. The storm only became violent as it moved towards Holland/Denmark where wind gusts reached >100mph!

The severe wind gust which led to headlines (99mph at Needles, IOW) was an outlier related to the an extremely exposed anemometer on a cliff top on an exposed island which does not represent surface conditions. The peak gust on a mainland coastal station was 82mph.

But a reasonably close inland station to me, reported a gust of 79mph, which must be a 1 in 10 year event for here and power cuts and fallen trees have been quite an issue locally.

The trouble is, it'll all be forgotten soon. The reference point remains October '87 here. It's astounding how many people, of the right age, who can't even remember the Burns' Day Storm.

Edited October 29, 2013 by Steve C

[iand61]

But a reasonably close inland station to me, reported a gust of 79mph, which must be a 1 in 10 year event for here and power cuts and fallen trees have been quite an issue locally.The trouble is, it'll all be forgotten soon. The reference point remains October '87 here. It's astounding how many people, of the right age, who can't even remember the Burn's Day Storm.

I think your right that 1987 will always be the standard by which other storms are compared and others such as the Burns Day storm in 1990 are, to an extend lessened in importance.

For me personally, early January 1976 brought my earliest memories of severe gales and January 2007 caused major damage and loss of life in these parts but Burns Day will always be clear in my mind.

[Steve C]

I think your right that 1987 will always be the standard by which other storms are compared and others such as the Burns Day storm in 1990 are, to an extend lessened in importance.

For me personally, early January 1976 brought my earliest memories of severe gales and January 2007 caused major damage and loss of life in these parts but Burns Day will always be clear in my mind.

Yes, again 1976 is a largely forgotten storm. I was only 8 years old, but it might be the defining event, which started my interest in the weather. I remember it very well.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looking forward to the new forum for this weekend storm!!!!! yesterday at 20.07, one of funniest posts ive seen on here!

[Storm Track]

The next storm will be named 'Rosebud' but I'm not sure yet. It is look like a sound with Hurricane Rosebud for the next weekend. Just maybe I'm wrong. St Jude could be dissipate this week.

[TwisterGirl81]

I think your right that 1987 will always be the standard by which other storms are compared and others such as the Burns Day storm in 1990 are, to an extend lessened in importance.For me personally, early January 1976 brought my earliest memories of severe gales and January 2007 caused major damage and loss of life in these parts but Burns Day will always be clear in my mind.

The Burns Day storm will be remembered more in the southwest because it hit us hard in the southwest, more so than the great storm of 1987 which affected the southeast more, it's all about what part you lived.The gale the other day was unusual for the south but for those of us in the southwest of wasn't really that bad and the media were very OTT in reporting, it could have been worse had it strengthened sooner which was what was originally forecast but instead strengthened as it left Southern England

[karlos1983]

The next storm will be named 'Rosebud' but I'm not sure yet. It is look like a sound with Hurricane Rosebud for the next weekend. Just maybe I'm wrong. St Jude could be dissipate this week.

 

Can somebody stop this person? Do you forecast for the Daily Express?

[iand61]

The Burns Day storm will be remembered more in the southwest because it hit us hard in the southwest, more so than the great storm of 1987 which affected the southeast more, it's all about what part you lived.The gale the other day was unusual for the south but for those of us in the southwest of wasn't really that bad and the media were very OTT in reporting, it could have been worse had it strengthened sooner which was what was originally forecast but instead strengthened as it left Southern England

Yes the Burns Day storm was much more widespread than 1987 with fatalities throughout the country but from a perspective of damage and fallen trees it probably didn't come close to the 87 one.