Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I should think a hint of nervousness about calling it one way or another after Mondays event. MetO and BBC were on the money for that and need to keep up the good mid-range forecasting. Of course when any thoughts of an Atlantic storm are mentioned, the General Public will be on it like a rash now after St Judes and this next potential will be just as difficult to call with all eyes on the run-up - even if it doesn't have quite the same potency.

Were they on the money though?  I think they should have done better with the track, it showed Wales and Midlands as red areas to quite late on Sunday and for me they should have seen the shift sooner, models were hinting at this.

Ok they were watching closely from early development, but so were many on here following the models.

 

I think the one coming behind t120-144 range is the one worth keeping an eye on, having said that any system coming in now will seem worse than it might in isolation due to the sodden ground so flooding is more likely.  W e could be seeing several waves coming at us.BFTP

Edited October 29, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Coast]

Just 8hrs before most of Wales and Midlands were in the firing line/ red zone,

 

Must admit I missed the MetO issuing a red warning?

 

 

Were they on the money though? Just 8hrs before most of Wales and Midlands were in the firing line/ red zone, I saw the forecast on Sunday Tea time and I couldn't believe that they hadn't shifted the danger area south as some models were showing this idea, Wales and Midlands had nothing as the track shifted south.

 

I am fairly confident from an early stage (4/5 days before-hand) that the main area that was 'hit' in the actual storm had been covered in various Met Office charts and warnings, with the amber slap bang over where the main event occurred. I think their chart output and coverage in the media, specifically their forecasts on TV, right up to the event were cautious but informative and gave a good view of what actually happened. The Met Office TV forecasts had 80 mph gusts from quite early on and they were correct with that in the amber alert area.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Must admit I missed the MetO issuing a red warning?I am fairly confident from an early stage (4/5 days before-hand) that the main area that was 'hit' in the actual storm had been covered in various Met Office charts and warnings, with the amber slap bang over where the main event occurred. I think their chart output and coverage in the media, specifically their forecasts on TV, right up to the event were cautious but informative and gave a good view of what actually happened. The Met Office TV forecasts had 80 mph gusts from quite early on and they were correct with that in the amber alert area.

Yes correct, not red alert, but their graphics had a red shading for areas likely to see brunt of storm. It is true the likely windspeeds and intensity of storm was well tracked. 

 

However, many people in Wales and Midlands were expecting the storm, they didn't get it so listening to the radio travelling from Wales back to Surrey there were an awful lot of people who wouldn't agree with the MetO being on the money. The southern counties of England and channel regions were always in line even with a slight shift north so no bonuses there.BFTP

Edited October 29, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Coast]

The southern counties of England and channel regions were always in line even with a slight shift north so no bonuses there.

 

So they correctly identified an area of the UK that was likely to see higher than average wind and gusts, called it from 5 days out and got it right in intensity and in the main area outlined in amber - but an area they were less certain of (yellow), 'missed out' and didn't receive the quite potent storm seen by many in the SE? 

 

I'd consider that pretty good going and 9/10 from me for getting the worst/main bit right and only slightly out the track for an area they were not so confident in  

[Summer Sun]

975mb this afternoon from GFS

 

 

before going to 980mb

 

 

The centre of the low is a lot further south this afternoon more inline with UKMO and ECM now

 

06z run

 

Edited October 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[bobbydog]

the 12z GFS wants to put saturdays low quite a bit further south-

 

12z

 

06z

[Coast]

While we're on MetO, here's their latest for Sunday in the South:

 

 

Gusty but not as bad as we've experienced yesterday which would do me!

 

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

the 12z GFS wants to put saturdays low quite a bit further south-

 

12z

 

06z

Moving to the ECM/UKMO solution then, still even at day 4 the UKMO is still further south than the GFS

[Coast]

Latest run GFS wind chart and gusts for Sunday morning:

 

 

 

 

[E4-Fatboy]

As a new member and having followed the discussion with regard to the "St Jude storm" . Will this potential storm, not have the same impact as the Monday's storm because it doesn't seem to be interacting with the jet stream?

[Steve C]

Those charts from Coast and CS look pretty windy for me IMBY. The weather pattern looks so disturbed that I don't think we can rule out another big blow in the next week or so.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'd consider that pretty good going and 9/10 from me for getting the worst/main bit right and only slightly out the track for an area they were not so confident in

We saw a different forecast then, Wales and Midlands were well within the main danger area to feel the brunt, the warnings for Wales were for direct hit, trust me in Swansea we had a breeze. Anyway we move onto the next round.  6/10 from me...could be worse, could be better.

BFTP

Edited October 29, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Coast]

Still not liking Bonfire nights potential on GFS. Not big by comparison to recent, but enough to throw a few displays off on the North + Eastern coasts?

 

 

 

[Steve C]

We saw a different forecast then, Wales and Midlands were well within the main danger area to feel the brunt, the warnings for Wales were for direct hit, trust me in Swansea we had a breeze. Anyway we move onto the next round.  6/10 from me...could be worse, could be better.BFTP

I agree to a degree that they should have downgraded the storm - I was in the Midlands on Sunday and said to relatives that the likelihood was that heavy rain would be more of an issue for them.However and playing Devil's advocate, could you imagine the stick they would have had, if they'd discontinued the warnings and then the storm tracked further north? Maybe they should have changed to yellow for further north and emphasised the low risk / high impact side of things?

[Steve C]

As a new member and having followed the discussion with regard to the "St Jude storm" . Will this potential storm, not have the same impact as the Monday's storm because it doesn't seem to be interacting with the jet stream?

You'd probably do well to read this article.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream-tutorial;sess=

then look at jet stream and surface pressure forecasts from the models, say GFS.

[Matty M]

Almost no support now for the development of the first wave, so eyes on the system behind it for the weekend.

 

There are a number of ensembles that bring a strong enough Atlantic storm into the British Isles.

Edited October 29, 2013 by Matty M

[arni]

some support from JMA and UKMO for a potentially very windy week end across the UK

[itsnowjoke]

Which areas would likely to be affected please

[Matty M]

Which areas would likely to be affected please

Western areas would appear most at risk at present as the models are having a tendency to fill the storm somewhat as it tracks further east.

[itsnowjoke]

Western areas would appear most at risk at present as the models are having a tendency to fill the storm somewhat as it tracks further east.

Well im Nwest England i hope it doesnt come here i dont fancy it tbh not after the distruction it did down south. Edited October 29, 2013 by itsnowjoke

[sidneybean]

I'm North Yorkshire bordering North East and whilst i would love to see a really good storm i don't think i want to experience what happened at the weekend either!

[Matty M]

I'm North Yorkshire bordering North East and whilst i would love to see a really good storm i don't think i want to experience what happened at the weekend either!

The storm wasn't really that severe wind wise unless you were living by the coast or in Europe. Unfortunately trees being in full leaf meant that inland wind gusts in the southeast between 55-70mph lead to falling trees which caused tragedy. The storm only became violent as it moved towards Holland/Denmark where wind gusts reached >100mph!

The severe wind gust which led to headlines (99mph at Needles, IOW) was an outlier related to the an extremely exposed anemometer on a cliff top on an exposed island which does not represent surface conditions. The peak gust on a mainland coastal station was 82mph.

Edited October 29, 2013 by Matty M

[sidneybean]

thanks for that Matty.  i have been lurking these boards for over a year now and am looking at some of the learner areas but its all very confusing! still, slow and steady,one day i hope to be able to look at the charts and know what they mean without having to sit talking myself through them lol! 

[snowangel32]

Does anyone know the potential wind speeds we could expect and what's the likelyhood of this actually happening doesn't look to severe at the moment on the models will this change

[Cyclonic]

The severe wind gust which led to headlines (99mph at Needles, IOW) was an outlier related to the an extremely exposed anemometer on a cliff top on an exposed island which does not represent surface conditions. The peak gust on a mainland coastal station was 82mph.

 

you still on about this...shall i ask for it to be took down ??? and placed in my back garden

Edited October 29, 2013 by Cyclonic