Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Coast

Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

Recommended Posts

Hot off the press - a special forecast from Michael Fish covering the next 24 hours:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

Very interesting how he stated the Met Office are still deliberating whether or not to issue a RED warning, if that does happen then all I can say is start ducking under the table folks lmao Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My post from yesterday at 11:42am. Ahead of the charts, ahead of the Met office. They should really use historical data when working out the weather charts....if I can call it without weather tools, I'm sure they can with.It doesn't work like that

It doesn't work like that I'm afraid. You can't use historical charts for predicting what will happen next. If you could you wouldn't need such a large met office or big computers. Just find the nearest chart from 1870 and there's your forecast.

Even now it's still possible for the Low to move north and bring the impact area back to it's original suggestion.

I wish they'd put a time and date on the warnings when the last update was done or am I blind?

Edited by The PIT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im interested in the convective part of the storm, this still looking good??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone tell me if it is going to be worse here in South Wales tomorrow than what it is today...trees are not looking good out in my back garden so don't know weather or not to move the kids from the back bedrooms..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure everyone is forgetting about that rain as well? Aren't some troubling amounts still forecast??

Yes there are and it's something we are watching closely. That said, a shorter duration event (if that's what this turns out to be) is no bad thing either from a flood risk point of view.We'll still be out today checking culverts and water control structures, but from a Nimby perspective, the potential change in track of the low (it's now projected to move east almost directly over us) means we're less concerned about blown debris blocking watercourses, which is usually what creates problems for us moving high volumes of water. We're still watching things closely, though. Edited by Just Before Dawn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now the question is how long will it be before they update the warnings. We certainly need to be out of yellow warning for wind for sunny Sheffield.

 

I suspect the Chief Forecaster at the MetO will await the latest update of their high res model before issuing new warnings, usually around 1130am.

 

We've had 66mph gusts at St Catherines Point (IoW) at 9am and an earlier gust of 72mph at Hurst Castle (Hants) at 8am, so it's very windy out here along the south coast - even before the 'Storm' arrives!

 

06z GFS shows little change in depth/track of low from 00z, looking at 65-75mph gusts along south coast, 55-65mph across southern counties south of M4 and below 55mph north of M4.

 

Interestingly 06z NAE alot deeper with the low than 06z GFS, has it circa 972mb over Norfolk at 06z, compared to 980mb on GFS.

Edited by Nick F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone tell me if it is going to be worse here in South Wales tomorrow than what it is today...trees are not looking good out in my back garden so don't know weather or not to move the kids from the back bedrooms..

I heard on the national TV forecast earlier on Andrew Marr that there where 80mph gusts in south Wales last night!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're forgetting that this event hasn't arrived yet. Things could still change in this volitile set up, even though we are less than 24 hours out. This is not a usual set up, especially as the storm is intensifying so close to the UK.

Wise words, In 1987 even the night before the strom was heading for northern france and we all know what happen with that one!

In my experience as these kind of storms intensify they seem to have a mind of there own and right now anything could happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wind has really picked up last hour or so here in Bournemouth!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My post from yesterday at 11:42am. Ahead of the charts, ahead of the Met office. They should really use historical data when working out the weather charts....if I can call it without weather tools, I'm sure they can with.

Lee the computer models spotted this storm days ago. Quite remarkable really. Sure the exact track and intensity might be off, but look at size of UK on globe and the vastness of the Atlantic and it's pretty special to think computer models save life's compared to if we just went on what happened in the past and became complacent. Never be in any doubt the weather can and will always surprise us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'a already pretty windy here.

Even if it looks like it wont be as severe as it looked like at this time yesterday, in UK terms, it will still be a storm when it arrives overnight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well latest projections show a very quiet start tomorrow wind wise. I ain't half going to get some abuse tomorrow morning when I go into work....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning.I haven't gone through all of the old thread or all of this one but just having a peek at the charts, there is a bit of a downgrade i see? Is Lorenzo playing a part in this? I feel the presence of it wasn't being earmarked enough.It's still going to be rough old night in Southern counties, suffice to say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very Similar weather conditions in London to October 27th 2002 tomorrow morning.

Gatwick going for Gust 63 knots and Heathrow for G60 - that's remarkable as that doesn't happen regularly or in a very long time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The wind outside here now is quite strong, and going by wind speed charts, it looks like today's wind will be stronger than tomorrow up here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wise words, In 1987 even the night before the strom was heading for northern france and we all know what happen with that one!

In my experience as these kind of storms intensify they seem to have a mind of there own and right now anything could happen.

 

John Holmes says as they deepen they tend to turn to their left. In this case that means further north which is exactly what the '87 one did.

 

Some years ago I saw another early morning depression (not in the psychological sense Posted Image ) which was supposed to hit the Hants, Sussex, SE go due north in the space of half an hour and hit Teignmouth and Dawlish in Devon instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a quick question, Im in Bournemouth south coast, and the wind has really picked up, Got a major headache coming too and my wife is just saying she feels very heavy and tired and gone to bed, could the pressure dropping do this? Cause our body to feel heavier?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All the gust speed predictions on the Met Office website are suggesting widespread gusts of about 60mph inland around the London area with 70 to 80mph on the south coast, so a strong storm no doubt and the biggest 1 for awhile but nothing I'd call exceptional unless of course there's some significant upgrading between now and the event itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm in Hayling Island (south coast) winds been picking up. Is this the start of things or not? I was watching a windsurfer holding on for dear life this morning going pretty fast, he was the only one out there. Probably hit France by now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone tell me if it is going to be worse here in South Wales tomorrow than what it is today...trees are not looking good out in my back garden so don't know weather or not to move the kids from the back bedrooms..

its not very good out here today heavy rain and strong winds, keep an eye on the track of this storm if you can, if it goes North into Cardigan bay it will take in more of South Wales into the 60+ mph winds....but if you are in any doubt move the kids anyway, we have done so a few times in the past, and on one occasion exiting the rear of the house at 2am in the morning as the front part of the house roof was dissapearing down the road tile by tile....... if some people on here think 70-80mph is a damp squib...your welcome to come and sit under it......Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd get a carbon monoxide alarm first if you haven't already before thinking it's due to the weather!

Classic Posted Image

It feels good to be back on NW after far too long away!

Edited by West is Best

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a quick question, Im in Bournemouth south coast, and the wind has really picked up, Got a major headache coming too and my wife is just saying she feels very heavy and tired and gone to bed, could the pressure dropping do this? Cause our body to feel heavier?

 

ne idea but pressure currently rising a little in your locale !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd get a carbon monoxide alarm first if you haven't already before thinking it's due to the weather!

Already got one and no heating is on at the mo! Just read this online QUOTE

Bad weather

If you’re prone to getting headaches, you could find that grey skies, high humidity, rising temperatures and storms can all bring on head pain.

Pressure changes that cause weather changes are thought to trigger chemical and electrical changes in the brain. This irritates nerves, leading to a headache.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...