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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

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The 'storm' does not seem to be as bad as it was expected to be, although winds are picking up gradually. Clearly my area is now at the centre of the storm, the winds are basically 1mph, then a rapid rise to up to 35mph winds.

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post-17472-0-87191300-1382919412_thumb.j

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Another reminder that "it's overhyped, it's not coming, Met Office are wrong" etc. one liners will be deleted. They add nothing to the discussion.

 

The warnings are only now kicking in, so we've barely begun to see what might happen.

Edited by Nick L

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No, I meant someone said earlier in this thread that it was sky who had been told by the met office, I have no evidence whatsoever that the met office have issued 90mph warnings for heathrow because on their website, they certainly haven't.

 

Maybe it was a direct briefing to the airports...I dont know how it all works to be honest...maybe they will update the warnings for the rest us normal bods who dont have to organise 100s of planes landing each hour in the next few hours?

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..place to be tomorrow afternoon? quite possibly Donna Nook..

 

Did somebody just post 83mph gust reported! 

Going to depend how the low develops, I think if it really goes all out somewhere like Cromer or Sherringham could get the top spot here. One hi res model this afternoon had force 11 winds there, but the low was about 10mb deeper than most other models at 6am.

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Some gusts above 85 mph or 140 km/hr are quite possible as the low continues to deepen rapidly. Would say this has now peaked in Cornwall and almost peaked in Devon, Dorset and Somerset, but will increase considerably further east after 0200h.

 

Mid-Channel buoy at 23z was reporting gusts to 124 km/hr (SW).

 

My 00z position for low is about 70 miles south of Wexford or 80 miles northwest of Plymouth in the Bristol Channel, heading northeast along a track approximately Gloucester-Northampton-Lincoln and into the North Sea near Humber estuary.

 

Would say London airports likely to see peak gusts around 65 mph (about 55 knots) but risk is there for higher if squall line develops. Inland southeast could see gusts above 80 mph in well-exposed areas and shorelines.

 

Expect a very sharp cutoff to strong wind field inland something like Swindon to Luton to Norwich although this could expand north east of Luton if the low deepens very quickly.

 

Will update, if you're east of the IOW and exposed to southwest, look out for damaging gusts 0200-0500h.

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..place to be tomorrow afternoon? quite possibly Donna Nook..

 

Did somebody just post 83mph gust reported! 

 

I'll be out at North Somercotes from about 10am tomorrow - I'll let you know.

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I assume Sky have got their wires crossed or they're reporting on an absolute and unlikely worst case assessment?

 

At what point would the met office upgrade their warnings?

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Gust of 83mph recorded at The Needles on the Isle of Wight at midnight.

Tell me about it I live just over a mile away , its very windy now.

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Yes don't believe anything about 80KTS for tonight, that is well above all reasonable estimates. Above 70kts, radar heads (that dont have golf ball style domes on them) are required to be stopped due to the pressure and stress on the gearing mechanism. As of now there is no such chance or information that says that will occur. If it does then it'll be a freak event not picked up by any model or forecast!

 

apart from this forecast, issued 6 WEEKS ago...

 

www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No44.pdf

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Some gusts above 85 mph or 140 km/hr are quite possible as the low continues to deepen rapidly. Would say this has now peaked in Cornwall and almost peaked in Devon, Dorset and Somerset, but will increase considerably further east after 0200h.

 

Mid-Channel buoy at 23z was reporting gusts to 124 km/hr (SW).

 

My 00z position for low is about 70 miles south of Wexford or 80 miles northwest of Plymouth in the Bristol Channel, heading northeast along a track approximately Gloucester-Northampton-Lincoln and into the North Sea near Humber estuary.

 

Would say London airports likely to see peak gusts around 65 mph (about 55 knots) but risk is there for higher if squall line develops. Inland southeast could see gusts above 80 mph in well-exposed areas and shorelines.

 

Expect a very sharp cutoff to strong wind field inland something like Swindon to Luton to Norwich although this could expand north east of Luton if the low deepens very quickly.

 

Will update, if you're east of the IOW and exposed to southwest, look out for damaging gusts 0200-0500h.

Ha - well if its peaked in Somerset then it was windier yesterday while I was out shopping. We have had nothing here at all.

 

I'm off to bed.. but the most recent image from Meteocentre here has me puzzled - looks like the isobars on the midnight obs have flattened out completely.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102800&size=large〈=en&area=eur

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unless something is drastically wrong here.....we are suppose to get 70mph+ winds from the SW in front of the 'storm', according to the BBC the low is not far off Pembs coast now (they got that right all along)....but the wind here is 7mph flat calm and drizzle?....and 70+mph from the NW as the low passes through?.....perhaps something drastic will happen as it goes inland?.......stay safe everyone on the south coast i dont envy you one bit under 70+mph winds........good night.

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Sorry got to post this Posted Image

that's hilarious!!!!!!  That's the funniest thing Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

It's fierce outside in Hastings - the rain is horizontal - I don't think the Yucca planted outside the caravan is going to last Posted Image

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Ha - well if its peaked in Somerset then it was windier yesterday while I was out shopping. We have had nothing here at all.

 

I'm off to bed.. but the most recent image from Meteocentre here has me puzzled - looks like the isobars on the midnight obs have flattened out completely.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102800&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

Not a breath of wind in Somerset , I just hope it moves NE before it passes our area , I have a tree outside my window and it is just still as anything still in full leaf.... has been heavy rain for 7 hours now though . 

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Looking at the way this is deepening and it's present track, I would eat my hat if Heathrow get anything as severe as 90mph. As it moves out into the North sea later this morning the Nwly behind it could be severe so Mayby Stanstead may just get near.

Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk plus perhaps parts of Kent may not bear the brunt of this but I would expect these areas to record some of the biggest wind values as the system exits. The sting in the tail could well be what hits the headlines.

Edited by tesaro

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it sounds stormy out there but those charts don't look like what we are experiencing its hard to tell what will happen?

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To be honest this is a stiff breeze but nothing like 1987.

 

First of all the models nowadays do spot potential bomb cyclones a good few days out, If they don't bomb you get a stiff breeze but if they do bomb  you get a howler. This one did not bomb. 

 

Secondly the Fish storm of 1987 was a bomb, furthermore it struck while the leaves were still on the trees and they were a fatter target. 

 

Thirdly the preparation period was a weekend, The local authorities had to be warned early as the staff are normally off on sat/ sun , So the Met Office had to go early on the warning and that upped the 'ominosity' factor. In reality they were out clearing drains all weekend to avoid flooding as we are in peak leaf fall season and preventing spot flooding. 

 

So all in all, Met Office had to do it, Met Office were right to call it early, bad or worst case scenario not happening but everyone ( bar the Daily Express ) did the right thing considering. Posted Image

 

There may be another storm this weekend but as it looks likely to hit Scotland ( with potentially higher winds) the press won't give a damn will they. Posted Image

Edited by sponge bob

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Sky News: "Hurricane-force winds for the whole day..." How do they get away with it?

I'm going to bed.

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apart from this forecast, issued 6 WEEKS ago... www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No44.pdf

Welcome to NW, Piers...if you could just pop your location in your profile...

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