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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

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Strong gusts being felt here on isle of wight. Dog walk should be fun later. I think I may head to shanklin beach

I hope they didn't bother to rebuild the pier at Shanklin after '87?  lol

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Even BBC News are seriously hyping this up. "Forecasters are making comparisons to the Great Storm of 1987" and showing images from 1987.

 

Unfortunately this will end up being blamed on the Met Office if it isn't as severe as expected when we all know they were only reflecting the output from the models... and considering just 24-48 hours ago we were praising the models for spotting this development so early perhaps it's time to re-evaluate the emphasis we put on models over 48 hours before an event.

I just saw that tweet and it was a bit surprising, not sure if News have asked the Weather team about that this morning

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The most reliable data we can watch now........ Satellite Imagery.

Regardless of what affect this has on the UK, watching it develop over the Atlantic from a wave into a low will be interesting from a weather enthusiasts POV.

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The BBC and MET need to man up and get rid of their stupid red area they were saying it was going to effect. They were pretty confident this was going to go NE across the midlands. They sad a move to the south was the least likely scenario. I told people yesterday it would happen but they did not listen. Even in this morning forecast they have the big wind arrows over the SE only but yet still showed that big red map covering 2 thirds of England. 

 

 

???..... it hasn't happened yet.........

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Yes I'm sure people will be pleased it's not as severe as was predicted. But, undoubtedly, if it isn't as severe as was expected, people tomorrow will be saying things like "just a little bit of wind and rain, they don't know what they're on about" etc.

Well all the latest BBC forecasts havn't changed their opinion on track and intensity, still going for 70-80mph gusts across a widespread area with potentially 90mph on coasts and to higher ground etc... so based on their estimations this is going to be pretty severe I suspect, probably on a par with the October 2000 and 2002 storms but not quite on the level of 1987 or even The Burn's Day Storm, the only people who are making those sort of comparisons are cockroaches working at cheap tabloids like The Express, The Mirror etc... (surprise surprise)!  Posted Image Posted Image The TV forecasts and Met Office experts haven't suggested anything of the sort, after all the 87 storm was a once in 200 year event so can't see there being another storm quite like that within my lifetime!

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And even if we don't see the worse of the winds in the next 36 hours, it looks like this thread could be running for a while longer yet with different models at differing times hinting at further potent lows/secondary lows forming towards the weekend/start of next week;post-12721-0-12291900-1382869178_thumb.jpost-12721-0-22154600-1382869186_thumb.j

hi AWDthis link allows you to do just that, first class, watch the 24 hour movementhttp://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Thanks John. Sure will be interesting to watch this develop IMO.

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just to say that the 24 hour newsteams will have got their act together for live broadcasting throughout today and tomorrow from likely prone areas. (s + se channel coastal regions). to downplay will be to remove a potentially larger than normal audience.  the message from the news and weather sides may well differ in tone today. unless it appears they will not get any decent live footage from somewhere in the uk, they will keep on banging the drum. certainly moreso sky than the bbc as sky may well have presold some lager than normal advertising slots for breakfast period tomorrow. however, even the bbc will want a return (via viewing figures) for their investment in o/s broadcast teams having been despatched to the coasts.

 

cynical me ?  course.

 

now back to the probable reality which is posters moaning about 10 mb and 30 miles on something that wasnt even born before yesterday !!

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The most reliable data we can watch now........ Satellite Imagery.Regardless of what affect this has on the UK, watching it develop over the Atlantic from a wave into a low will be interesting from a weather enthusiasts POV.

 

Speaking of which, the 9am frame is uploaded now to compare with the ECM. Looks slightly further east than the model but otherwise a good match.

 

http://eumetrain.org/eport/atlantic_09.php?width=1360&height=768&date=2013102709

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Yesterday, 11:42

Seen this scenario many times before. It will head south, probably northern France and the channel getting the worse. You only need be concerned if you live on the South coast as you may get of it....but living on a coast you'd expect it to be windy.

 

The Met Office are slowly morphing their warnings any further north to that of rain (1-2 inches nothing special) so they don't look too silly after telling everyone in the midlands and the home counties to "be prepared" .  

 

 

My post from yesterday at 11:42am. Ahead of the charts, ahead of the Met office. They should really use historical data when working out the weather charts....if I can call it without weather tools, I'm sure they can with.

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I just saw that tweet and it was a bit surprising, not sure if News have asked the Weather team about that this morning

 

 

I heard that quote "Forecasters are making comparisons with the Great Storm of 1987" on TV, so it looks like the BBC are using it in all media outlets this morning.

Edited by Cold Winter

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Now the question is how long will it be before they update the warnings. We certainly need to be out of yellow warning for wind for sunny Sheffield.

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Now the question is how long will it be before they update the warnings. We certainly need to be out of yellow warning for wind for sunny Sheffield.

 

Within the next 2 hours I'd say.

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Met Office blamed for what and by whom? If it isn't as severe as it might've been, almost everyone will be mightily pleased and relieved. Surely preferable to be prepared then reprieved than the other way around.

They will be blamed as everyone is convinced a major storm is on it's way round here. There are going take some unconvincing that there isn't going to be one away from southern coasts and Kent.

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Well whatever happens warnings are exactly that warnings.

Obviously if they didnt give them we wouldnt have a clue as to what might happen. I have now accepted that im under a yellow warning just in case etc. If you went to bed and woke up with no roof you would be very angry that there had not been any warnings wouldnt you ?. To everyone out there stay safe the weather will do what it wants when it wants FACT.

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For me it's been an interesting few days from which we will all learn something. I'm really interested to see exactly how it works out. Gatwick TAF from 0500Z called for 40 gust 63 knots tomorrow morning, I think the 1100Z one will shave 5-10 knots off

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
Let's be nice!

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My post from yesterday at 11:42am. Ahead of the charts, ahead of the Met office. They should really use historical data when working out the weather charts....if I can call it without weather tools, I'm sure they can with.

 

Posted Image

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My post from yesterday at 11:42am. Ahead of the charts, ahead of the Met office. They should really use historical data when working out the weather charts....if I can call it without weather tools, I'm sure they can with.

 

You're forgetting that this event hasn't arrived yet. Things could still change in this volitile set up, even though we are less than 24 hours out. This is not a usual set up, especially as the storm is intensifying so close to the UK.

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I'm sure everyone is forgetting about that rain as well? Aren't some troubling amounts still forecast??

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