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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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The system doesn't look much at all on the latest NAE run, as outlined by Nick appears it won't under go rapid Intensification until it exits the east coast.Perhaps gusts to 70mph on some exposed coasts.And some strong gusts just as it departs East Anglia.Gusts inland 40-50MPH at most, perhaps a little more in East Anglia/Southeast as system centre clears and winds back northwesterly.

 

Not so sure myself, even the GFS gust charts show around 60mph gusts here, and I'm not exactly near the coast being near Heathrow.

 

Some people seem to have been determined that nothing would happen from this system since it first started being forecast.

There will be reasons for the Met Office's thoughts (some of which already posted previously). Will they be right, I don't know until later.

 

I can't remember a system causing this much uncertainty this close before, definitely a finely balanced situation.

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Hi guysI thought the north, whilst missing out on the wind, was going to get most rain?Looking at the radar for the past few hours, the heaviest rain is along the south coast and I cant see any northward movement of that at all??Not much getting up to Sheffield it seems!

 

 

Seriously... this event is still 6+ hours away for your area... check the radar again in the early hours. Everything is going *pretty much* as planned so far. Kick back and watch the drama unfold, don't worry. :)

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Hi guysI thought the north, whilst missing out on the wind, was going to get most rain?Looking at the radar for the past few hours, the heaviest rain is along the south coast and I cant see any northward movement of that at all??Not much getting up to Sheffield it seems!

Not sure if that was ever the case - southern areas will still get the most rain. NAE shows 7mm for here at best for the next 48 hours.

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Hey guys. As a balloonist i use the Met Office Ballooning Forecast, interesting to see the spot winds at 500 feet,1000 feet, 2000 feet for 6am tomorrow morning. post-15543-0-65027500-1382910196_thumb.p

 

KEY- First column- Height 0.5- 500 feet... 1.0- 1000,Feet

       - Second column- Wind direction, I.E 290*, followed by wind speed 40knots 

       - 3rd Column is Temperature at the height.

 

Thought it might be of interest to some of you. 

Mark

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This storm still has potential to really develop as it moves over the UK, it seems that it's most violent stage maybe over the North Sea tomorrow

but it could still flick its sting of a tail at eastern England, (Norfolk particularly) as it clears tomorrow morning, so even as people wake up in East Anglia it may not be over

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Personally I find it hard to believe the GFS will be wrong at 9 hours post initiation. A strong gale in the FAR SE of the UK and along S coastal areas but certainly nothing spectacular over CS England and S Midlands as some warnings are making out......all in my opinion of course

 

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nothing in NWest Eng it was windier earlier

 

Don't think we were ever due to get the worst of the storm, it's still looking like it might be an unplesant trip to work in the morning with some heavy rain around.

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This storm still has potential to really develop as it moves over the UK, it seems that it's most violent stage maybe over the North Sea tomorrow

but it could still flick its sting of a tail at eastern England, (Norfolk particularly) as it clears tomorrow morning, so even as people wake up in East Anglia it may not be over

 

Happy birthday-  thanks for your inputs :)

 

Steve

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Thanks for the replys guys Posted Image

Its great on here, even more so for a learner like me!

I remember seeing a few posts in the model thread showing intense rain further north on the north side of the low i think it said. I guess it could have changed now though.

Enjoy the ride everyone, its fun sharing my interest with all of you

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Personally I find it hard to believe the GFS will be wrong at 9 hours post initiation. A strong gale in the FAR SE of the UK and along S coastal areas but certainly nothing spectacular over CS England and S Midlands as some warnings are making out......all in my opinion of course

 

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The GFS can be wrong at that time scale, the fact that there is not consistency or any relations in the model bring it to a now cast.

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Thanks for the replys guys Posted Image

Its great on here, even more so for a learner like me!

I remember seeing a few posts in the model thread showing intense rain further north on the north side of the low i think it said. I guess it could have changed now though.

Enjoy the ride everyone, its fun sharing my interest with all of you

 

NE Mids/Lincs/Yorks/East Anglia likely to see the heaviest of the rainfall tomorrow morning, some big totals especially over higher ground.

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Futherr intensity downgrades on the NAE and GFS. If it comes off as was initially being forecast then it would be a notable storm, that looks increasingly unlikely now though, not seeing anything exceptional in the latest models and observations. Still time for something to happen though.

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Spare a thought for the RNLI and other emergency people who are desperately looking for the 14 year old lad this evening in treacherous conditions

 

Oh no, I hope they find him.

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Starting to sound bad out there.

Sounding very bad outside here too Kate. It seems there are a lot of NIMBY's on here tonight that can't believe in something if it isn't in their back yard. or to be charitable, i guess it is just severe disappointment this isn't going further north?

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