Jump to content

Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


Recommended Posts

Wind has dropped significantly here in the last 1/2 hr. Rain is now light after some torrential downpours around an hour ago....is that it?

 

Im in Pencoed, South Wales - my avatar used to show my location. Sorry.

First low has cleared with the Second coming in now.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

It's the lull before the storm. Winds will ease this evening before picking up tonight, but Wales is not currently in the main firing line.

 

Here is the NW warning issued earlier.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=4;sess=4bc5dc045fe08bc95113a61c0d806126

 

Thanks - I appreciate that x

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted · Hidden by bryan629, October 27, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by bryan629, October 27, 2013 - No reason given
post-18134-0-79292100-1382904831_thumb.j

Anyone able to do a quick scribble on this sat pic to show just where the centre of the low is atm etc. It's a bit messy looking and I can't pick out the centre of the low?

 

Posted Image

I think this is the centre....just developing

Link to post

So many posts I don't understand on here this evening..

 

Probably shouldn't post the many examples and why I dispair as it will be taking things more off topic and possibly be deleted

 

Instead I'll post that earlier Ian Fergusson, and other sources from the Met Office said things along the lines of The west country and Bristol may well see 50-70mph gusts, possibly 80+mph briefly due to a pressure squeeze on the back edge of the low being picked up by high resolution models but not the global modes like the GFS. Presumably this would then track ENE.

 

He said in the SW thread: 'We're using UKV now as coarser-scale models aren't resolving the mesoscale wind features in the backwash on pressure surge. UKV consistent in past 3 runs. Troubling. More on this in due course for my region especially'

 

Presumably this is why the amber warnings extend further north than I'd have expected from just looking at the GFS wind charts and some other models.

 

On the other hand, the media hype isn't helping things to say the least, and apparently many people outside the risk zone think it's gunna effect them for some reason, presumably due to poor newspaper reports or something.

Edited by Stormmad26
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone able to do a quick scribble on this sat pic to show just where the centre of the low is atm etc. It's a bit messy looking and I can't pick out the centre of the low?

 

Posted Image

 

Pin the tail on the donkey?

 

I'll play!

 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
At Heathrow Operators have been asked to cancel 20% of flights 0600-1100, 10% 1100-1600 and 5% 1600- midnight. Night jet restrictions have been lifted tonight and tomorrow night.
 
Expecting Gusts to 60mph in the morning.   Rates down to 24 per hour from 45 per hour landing. 
Edited by Robbie Garrett
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The low is now enclosed by a complete isobar according to this: http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large as indicated by the UK Fax earlier too

 

The 9pm update will be more accurate, observations are only included every 3 hours, the hours between that are smoothed using model estimates.

Link to post
Share on other sites

NickR, on 27 Oct 2013 - 20:08, said:Posted Image

It's almost as if you're posting without having bothered to read the countless posts replying to similar "but it's better now than before " posts. Surely no one can be that daft, though? Posted Image

 

 

Touchy much? Walks away to find another forum where you won't get your head bitten off for daring to post.....

with so many posts coming in so fast, no one could be keeping up with what has just been put up.

 

So all ahead full steam and post away :)

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

indeed over here we have completely static trees... no wind at all, it doesnt feel like there is anything going on...  Im in runcorn although Im looking at NE from my window so I wont see it coming.

It's not due yet, it does not arrive in the SW till 12ish, so will be later where you are.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say, this is the most exhilarating thread I have ever encountered on here, pure manic, pure action, I love threads with flow to them but that also include technical expertise, obviously weather wise not as good as heavy disruptive snow, I just hope we have an 'upcoming severe winter weather' thread with this many posts in January or Feb because we will have done good, this storm is going to be quite severe but not an absolute stonker anymore I don't think.

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

Would say that southeast is still under the gun but timing and evolution may spare southwest from damaging gusts. In particular IOW to Kent and inland to south London could experience wind damage overnight, in association with possible line squall formation around 0200-0400h. Feel more confident that northern France, Belgium and Holland could see more widespread wind damage. This is not looking like a busted forecast with the sharp pressure falls and earlier gusts to 115 km/hr in Brittany. However it won't be quite as bad as some forecasts had implied. Track will also probably spare most of Midlands from damaging wind gusts, northern half of East Anglia could be grazed later but Essex may still be in play.

 

Will be around all night to watch as my time zone seven hours behind for the week. Key will be rapidly developing cold front around Portland to Cherbourg after midnight. Watch for that and where that heads, wind damage may follow.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

indeed over here we have completely static trees... no wind at all, it doesnt feel like there is anything going on...  Im in runcorn although Im looking at NE from my window so I wont see it coming.

The rain should arrive in the south of the NW region in the next couple of hours and give a wet night and Monday morning.The wind may not arrive at all.
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...