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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Don't leave until you've checked national rail departures and realtimetrains.com for up to the minute info. Ignore everything else as likely to be wrong or behind the times.

I have checked southern trains website. All southern trains are not starting until 9am onwards. Even then the chance of getting a train will be miniscule as they will be so crowded. Ridiculous, surely they should have assessed the situation in the morning
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What if there's no electricity to run the trains? What's the point of going to work in a power cut or do you use hand tools and a manual typewriter? It's just one day.Other countries have provinces the size of the UK... they don't stop, but we are a small group of islands and it's very easy for a weather system to close us down.

We are not other countries..so you can't compare And whilst you may think they all carry on; some don't. They also have far different budgets, infrastructure, culture, laws etc.. Etc etc..etcNow back to the weather It is so still out there at the moment? Anyone else have the same?
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Evening all

 

Bear with me for sounding stupid - but is this going to be a storm in the traditional sense of the word, eg lightning and thunder? Or just lots of wind/rain?

 

I'm in NW London if it makes a difference... I've tried to work it out for myself but I'm kind of confused :)

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Posted · Hidden by J10, October 27, 2013 - Completely off topic.
Hidden by J10, October 27, 2013 - Completely off topic.

I have checked southern trains website. All southern trains are not starting until 9am onwards. Even then the chance of getting a train will be miniscule as they will be so crowded. Ridiculous, surely they should have assessed the situation in the morning

 

I am afraid southern rail are crap. Not exactly happy about them cancelling when I suspect nothing will happen. But then they increase their fares and I have to stand every day anyway in third world conditions. sorry rant over

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Presumably erecting a new wind turbine, to take advantage? Posted Image

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Evening all

 

Bear with me for sounding stupid - but is this going to be a storm in the traditional sense of the word, eg lightning and thunder? Or just lots of wind/rain?

 

I'm in NW London if it makes a difference... I've tried to work it out for myself but I'm kind of confused Posted Image

 

its a 'windstorm' homerr. little chance of seeing any lightning.

 

ecm 12z op downgrades the mean wind speeds again - brighton maxing around 55mph with lyme bay a few mph behind.  gusting around 70/80 so that should satisfy the live newsfeeds and provide some debris for the morning bulletins.

Edited by bluearmy
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The forum is going to go down for 1-2 minutes shortly - we have to add some power to the database to keep things running smoothly.

 

Apologies for any inconvenience - we didn't expect it to be quite as busy as it is...

 

1756 users, gotto be a record I think for 0ctober (not the most exciting month) and with no thunderstorms or snow on the way

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The forum is going to go down for 1-2 minutes shortly - we have to add some power to the database to keep things running smoothly.

 

Apologies for any inconvenience - we didn't expect it to be quite as busy as it is...

extra thundercats?

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Can we stick to discussing the storm please and not whether or not trains should be cancelled etc.

 

That is a completely separate issue and might be worthy of a new thread in the Serious Discussion section after the storm has passed.

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1756 users, gotto be a record I think for 0ctober (not the most exciting month) and with no thunderstorms or snow on the way

Blimey. When I joined in '04 we had a meltdown if 300 were online! lol

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That is a really poor analogy, Gary. Weather enthusiasts are always going to be more interested in the rarer extremes in the same way that train spotters would be more interested in rarer engines. No one wants to see death and destruction but we all like to witness the power of nature up close.

Ofc people like to see death and destruction. The most watched videos on youtube are of crashes, death and destruction. And I bet most folk on here have avidly sought out videos of tornadoes, hurricanes and floods. It'd human nature to be ghoulish, it's nothing to be ashamed about. Just look at the Victorians! 

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ECM 12z has the system further south and weaker than the 00z. I think current observations and trends seem to be pointing in that direction. I wouldn't call it a storm to be honest!

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Its down to now casting the rain is earlier than expected and already further north, models are completely useless for this phase.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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UK Met Fax shows the centre at 18Z of 988mb and 48.5N 11W so on line of the predictions from Wednesday-Thursday, not sure about the depth as I have not kept charts for this time.N

 

as a VERY rough guide it will continue to travel in the direction of the warm sector isobars UNLESS it deepens very markedly. If it did that then it would turn somehwat left of that track.

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yes why cancel this early, why not take a view first thing

 

Obviously because if people know about it they can make alternative arrangements.

 

In 2007, I spent 5 hours on a train due to a fallen tree ahead and a bottleneck behind - no stations in between. I'd rather they checked out the line and warned me in advance.

 

In terms of the system - it does look to be tracking slightly further south and strengthening later than expected. Middle East coast (and obviously extreme SW) must surely be highest risk?

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Looking at the sustained wind data from the likes of the mumbles and Portland bill, the wind is currently weakening ( 17:00 = 44mph/ 19:00 = 36mph)and has been for the last few hours, were as it was forecast to be picking up. the centre of the secondary low if it follows the upper jet as it has been will be more likely to go through slightly to the south along the channel??

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But they do need to get this right - just seen Sky News, train blackouts tomorrow morning, holiday makers going home early, already the economy is bound to lose many many millions over this - and then if it doesn't happen? They wont be trusted again for a long long time, which will be very dangerous the next time a storm comes.The problem is that all the models I'm looking at (and that's all the publically available ones) say to me coastal event only, with maybe just force 6/7 inland, whilst the Met keep saying 80mph through a vast region.

 

You couldn't be any more wrong. The warnings are there to increase awareness of a possible severe weather event. They have been enforced perfectly.

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I think that the Met Office have got this bang on, after all they are actually better than most at forecasting, it seems the Daily Mail/Express ramp up the weather due to amateur forecasters, barring the obvious "BBQ Summer" episode, they are after all professional forecasters. I would trust them more than anything else. I normally commute into London, however have the day off tomorrow so eagerly awaiting the storm here!! 

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Posted this earlier but don't think many people see it.

 

Weather station in Bexhill (near Hastings, south coast)

 

http://www.bexhillsc.co.uk/index.php/weather/bsc-weather-station.html

 

quick with updates and also displays max recorded wind / gust

 

 

here is one for shoreham  beach

 

 

http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/

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