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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

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if that metoffice output is right Coast - sub 60mph gusts for most away from coasts is hardly even a decent autumn storm ?

there's a 76 at Hastings at 06Z, don't get caught up too much in fine detail at a specific 3 hour spot, could be higher in the 2 hours inbetween

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Definate downgrade on that chat las night they were showing 76mph gust for my area.

Something we can all be thankful for then, Tom?Posted Image 

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?? that sounds brave forecast - no change from 24 hours ago - I find that hard to believe - so they are saying they're not buying the 18z or 0z models ??

I thought the quote was "no change in the track"

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Unfortunately, that seems about right Jo:

 

Have to say that chart of wind gusts you posted does look significantly less severe then 24 hours previously which originally suggested gusts of 60mph plus inland with 80 plus on the coast now it's 60mph on the coast and 50mph inland, this is all very confusing. TV forecast I've just watched he stated it won't be as severe as 1987 that I'm quite sure of but the amber warning area hasn't changed at all with anywhere within it likely to see 70-80mph gusts he hinted at possibly 90mph but I suspect that'll be on the coasts. It's weird though cause the wind arrows looked huge in the channel but didn't seem too bad over London area, so please explain why the amber zone still covers London and areas further inland?

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Morning all there seems to be a DOWNGRADE in the storm at the moment which is good news,But we are still around 24Hrs left so anything can happen.:) 

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Matt on BBCnews just said he's just had meeting with Chief Forecaster and no change from 24hrs ago with track of storm.

 

are they just being pessimistic just in case the average of models from this morning and last night are not correct ?

 

if most of the models are showing it further south and therefore strongest winds effecting less of an area - how can they say no change ?  or are the own MetO models showing something different - seems confusing

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if that metoffice output is right Coast - sub 60mph gusts for most away from coasts is hardly even a decent autumn storm ?

 

 

Definate downgrade on that chat las night they were showing 76mph gust for my area.

 

The gusts are shown a bit higher at 6am, up to 76mph on the south coast, though not quite as high as was shown yesterday.

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Looks like a nice downgrade from GFS this morning things look further south to me

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

By Lunchtime tomorrow its pulled away

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO also looks a tad further south

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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The behaviour of the storm might not be completely normal but the winds projected we should experience practically every other year across the south. October can be a very transitional month and looking at the current data I don't see how this should be too unexpected in any given year or at anytime of the year for that matter..

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Definate downgrade on that chat las night they were showing 76mph gust for my area.

BUT you are looking at a spot of data, the data varies continuously and will be different value either side of that spot

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there's a 76 at Hastings at 06Z, don't get caught up too much in fine detail at a specific 3 hour spot, could be higher in the 2 hours inbetween

Thanks for reminding me!

 

A reprieve for many but it looks like those of us stuck on the coast are the ones who aren't going to escape this thing. It looks as bad as ever herePosted Image

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I think if the storm a bit further south then France plus the CI will be hit hard, no doubt about that.

 

That storm is still the one to watch though, especially hitting mainland europe.

Edited by pip22

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Hi Adam,

Welcome to NWPosted Image Could you please pop where you live in the UK into your profile or signature. Thank youPosted Image

Thanks, I've just added my location I'm from Upminster. So what sort of winds can I look forward to in the next 24 hours or, anything worth mentioning or is it just going to be a standard blustery gale?...

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Looks like a nice downgrade from GFS this morning things look further south to me

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

By Lunchtime tomorrow its pulled away

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO also looks a tad further south

 

Posted Image

 

not on the latest fax gavin

 

Posted Image

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From Ian's comment earlier it sounds like the jetstream is just not as powerful as was expected. If thats the case then a key ingredient for the really rapid intensification that the models were showing just isn't going to be there.

Edited by radiohead

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That's not what is being said yet. Warnings/Watches are given well ahead, yet the most crucial warnings (like MO red) are given nearer the time to avoid real life problems, egg on faces is hardly a worry when public perception in some places lives on that.  The warnings so far have been valid and backed up by run after run.

The fine details come out from lunchtime onwards. Damp squib seems unliekly

 

Just watched Matt giving the latest prediction on TV. The play through of charts does show the low rather further ESE than yesterday Fax charts suggested. I got the impression from his spoken forecast that Met are looking at winds not quite as strong and possibly somewhat further east and south to the ideas yesterday.

 

As you say Jo the fine detail will be for around lunch time. I suspect the senior man is a busy person this morning. From my experience changing gear on a long held prediction is about the most difficult part of being a weather forecaster. The line is so fine as to just how much to amend a forecast and so often the actual is somewhere between the original and the amended.

Off to have a look at sat piccs, the latest upper wind charts and surface ones.

Edited by johnholmes

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I think if the storm a bit further south then France plus the CI will be hit hard, no doubt about that.

 

Monsieur Michel Poisson has just told viewers "Ne vous inquiétez pas" on French TV.

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Well the 06z GFS never gets the low below 980mb before clearing into the north sea just after rush hour

Posted Image

The low then deepens as it moves north east into the Baltic sea

Conversely the 06z NAE still packs a punch

Posted Image

But perhaps suggestions that the worst will be over by the time rush hour starts

Edited by Captain shortwave

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not on the latest fax gavin

 

Posted Image

 

That fax is still a downgrade, it's significantly further south then what was being suggested yesterday sending the extreme stuff up the channel and it has a central pressure of 977mb not 972mb. I'm thinking judging from what I'm seeing from the latest charts and TV forecast that people on the south coast should hunker down and prepare for a wild night 70-90mph gusts anywhere more then 50 miles inland shouldn't be loosing much sleep over it tonight if any, probably just a moderate gale lol

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A simple question,is this going to be a damp squib then?

 

No, not where the warnings are in place. Best listen to the experts as far more knowledge and data..

Edited by Polar Maritime

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I thought the quote was "no change in the track"

 

yes so did I Jo

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The Met office fax has the Low as 7mb deeper than the GFS 06z at midnight. 

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No, not where the warnings are in place. Best listen to the experts as far more knowledge and data..

Thankyou.

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I thought someone posted that too

 

surely they can't change their mind in 30 minutes ?  unless the OP miss-heard ?

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From Ian's comment earlier it sounds like the jetstream is just not as powerful as was expected. If thats the case then a key ingredient for the really rapid intensification that the models were showing just isn't going to be there.

The models are struggling to deal with the Atlantic jet in relation to this low, so there will still be fluctations in output and I wouldn't discount it yet. It has always been said that the low would cross the UK at the start of its intensifying stage, What may happen, is the jetstream bit kicks  as it heads over north Sea, storming to Denmark, Low countries but gives a back kick to eastern ENgland as it clears. Don't put this one away just yet

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