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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

You might be right John I had a peak at this one. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=62163&meas=pres&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

Further south and east and dropping pretty fast. The others are now rising.

Is this not what the gfs in the last few runs were predicting? Less development near to the uk ,then an explosive development during tomorrow morning towards the near continent...Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

Thats going over the top...

sorry you had your head in your underpants the last couple of days..you missed the hysterical meeja headlines. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

People don't need to criticise the met office. It doesn't help anything. In fact the met office is doing a great job of tracking the storm tbh.

But they do need to get this right - just seen Sky News, train blackouts tomorrow morning, holiday makers going home early, already the economy is bound to lose many many millions over this - and then if it doesn't happen? They wont be trusted again for a long long time, which will be very dangerous the next time a storm comes. The problem is that all the models I'm looking at (and that's all the publically available ones) say to me coastal event only, with maybe just force 6/7 inland, whilst the Met keep saying 80mph through a vast region.
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

It's raining hard here now, on top of this mornings early showers, the total is up to 6.2mm here. Bar currently falling slowly - 997.7hPa. I'll be heading out at 10pm to go and find my spot. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Right-I'll start watching that one-maybe it's moving a bit north

 

I'm convinced it is moving North, see my post above with link, I'm just unclear if this was anticipated?

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Twitter latestTomasz Schafernakerâ€@Schafernaker6m

Western coast of Brittany NW France now being pounded by gusts over 60-70mph.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

It's raining hard here now, on top of this mornings early showers, the total is up to 6.2mm here. Bar currently falling slowly - 997.7hPa. I'll be heading out at 10pm to go and find my spot. Posted Image

I can't leave until the wife gets back from work at 11, we shall be crossing in the door frame, quick high five and I'm off!

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Posted
  • Location: Woolton, Liverpool
  • Location: Woolton, Liverpool

Right-I'll start watching that one-maybe it's moving a bit north

Blimey that K2 was showing 988.4 - yesterday! I thought the pressure would be dropping faster than this.

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Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

met office to scared to cough up all the info..they always get blamed for everything.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

It's raining lately here in Exeter and there is hardly any wind, hopefully the calm before the storm...I know it's not meant to be stormy until 12ish but so far it's hard to imagine that we will be getting 70mph + gusts

It is the calm before, the lull was one the charts, around 9pm should be picking up (although new run of model will be out in 15)

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

But they do need to get this right - just seen Sky News, train blackouts tomorrow morning, holiday makers going home early, already the economy is bound to lose many many millions over this - and then if it doesn't happen? They wont be trusted again for a long long time, which will be very dangerous the next time a storm comes.The problem is that all the models I'm looking at (and that's all the publically available ones) say to me coastal event only, with maybe just force 6/7 inland, whilst the Met keep saying 80mph through a vast region.

No. All the Met office need to do is keep the site updated and keep the warnings updated. If they do that they'll be fine.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Check the below link out, then open another tab and load the same page, but alter the time to 18:00 on this one and toggle between the 2 pages. Between 1700 & 1800 the system moves North, not North East or East, North? Was not expecting it to move North, or is it just me?

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102717&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

I did warn about taking the apparent computer plot too literally. It is prone to this sort of error, best to take a general movement over at least 3 hours rather than watch it from hour to hour. No storm can move quicjly in different directions.

 

The predicted track shows a movement towards the entrance to the Bristol Channel but wait until the 18z Fax is issued for a accurate position on it.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I'm convinced it is moving North, see my post above with link, I'm just unclear if this was anticipated?

Using your links it looks like an ENE track to me...

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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill - Suffolk - East Anglia - UK
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Events
  • Location: Haverhill - Suffolk - East Anglia - UK

Pressure now falling rapidly just north of Bay of Biscay, with sustained winds approaching 40 knots. Interesting and worrying hours ahead......

 

B.62163

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I did warn about taking the apparent computer plot too literally. It is prone to this sort of error, best to take a general movement over at least 3 hours rather than watch it from hour to hour. No storm can move quicjly in different directions.

I must have missed that John, cheers for the heads up! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I'm convinced it is moving North, see my post above with link, I'm just unclear if this was anticipated?

 

might be what someone was saying earlier and its getting absorbed into the main low

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

It is the calm before, the lull was one the charts, around 9pm should be picking up (although new run of model will be out in 15)

Thankyou Jo, you've probably been asked a million times but what kind of gusts can we expect in Exeter and what time are the strongest due to move through? What time will the wind pick up because it's so calm here...Thankyou and stay safe everyone â˜ºï¸ Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Wow the flood alerts are growing fast? In areas that have no rain yet

Just seen them on twitter..

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Indeed thats a nasty looking radar, Heavy rain to the SW. Calm winds currently here and across many central southern england but will pick up in the next few hours. Some big rainfall amounts could occur, 15-25mm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Thankyou Jo, you've probably been asked a million times but what kind of gusts can we expect in Exeter and what time are the strongest due to move through? What time will the wind pick up because it's so calm here...Thankyou and stay safe everyone ☺ï¸

Have you not heard. The storm is going to skirt you and hit everywhere else..

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Posted
  • Location: North Lowestoft
  • Location: North Lowestoft

Once again on here there are some that won't be happy unless the country is decimated by some freakish storm. Be careful what you wish for. On a happier note we have a light breeze in Lowestoft.

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

Wow the flood alerts are growing fast? In areas that have no rain yet

 

Thats because rivers are having a higher intake of water further west and on mountains..rainfall will always be heavier in these parts as less evaporation can take place between the cloud and mountain 

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