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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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So much hype over an ordinary winter "storm". I predict a lot of egg on faces tomorrow. No model is now indicating anything like what has been speculated.

Hang on to your hat - you may well need to eat it tomorrow Posted Image

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Looking at that data from the buoy, it does seem to indicate that the low is not deepening as much as predicted during yesterday and is quite a bit further east than those tracks suggested. If this is so and the computer plot backs this up at 1700 then the low may be going to track somewhat further south. A more reliable picture should become available when we get the UK Met 18z Fax chart. If it was only the computer plot then I would be more sceptical but the buoy is normally very reliable.

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Wish I could get down there, trains are still running up to this evening, but like you said I'll be stranded there till 9am at the earliest, and god knows how long it'll take to clear the line if things get bad.Where abouts are you in Southend btw, on the seafront?

I wish I was tonight. I am a mile inland in Southchurch.
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there is a very slight chance that the secondary low will end up dying out and we will just be left with the main low to the NNE ?? now that would be very embarrassing, i know that a sting jet has been forecast to give the storm its power in the early hours, but some elements are currently missing. the main one being that there is currently no real organised rotation around the secondary low?

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Hang on to your hat - you may well need to eat it tomorrow Posted Image

Funny it is all the ones who are not even due to experience this storm who keep wanting to downgrade it but the more knowledgeable METO still aren't downgrading.

Anyway, I was woken at 5:00am this morning by gusts up to 50 knots so I am off to get some sleep early as I expect if it comes off as planned then it will wake me soon enough.

Not talking about you of course Pixel.

Edited by coldfingers
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So much hype over an ordinary winter "storm". I predict a lot of egg on faces tomorrow. No model is now indicating anything like what has been speculated.

 

and that's no yoke ? you serious ?

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Looking at that data from the buoy, it does seem to indicate that the low is not deepening as much as predicted during yesterday and is quite a bit further east than those tracks suggested. If this is so and the computer plot backs this up at 1700 then the low may be going to track somewhat further south. A more reliable picture should become available when we get the UK Met 18z Fax chart. If it was only the computer plot then I would be more sceptical but the buoy is normally very reliable.

 

 

But doesn't it have to engage with the Jet stream before it powers up?  If the jet stream is buckling right over the UK, then the power up will happen over the UK, the fact that it is further east already, could be because the Jet is more powerful than forecasted.  

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The storm isnt forecast to develop much until this evening, and then develop rapidly. It's a tough one to call. Still possible that winds of 60 to 70 mph will affect much of the south - whilst these winds may not seem too severe, combine them with wet ground and trees in leave. Also, with leaves blowing off trees its likely to block drains and lead to enhanced flooding, more-so than may normally be expected.

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So much hype over an ordinary winter "storm". I predict a lot of egg on faces tomorrow. No model is now indicating anything like what has been speculated.

 

If anything the wind has calmed down on the south coast if you tap the animation on here --> xcweather.co.uk  you couldn't make it upPosted Image

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Looking at that data from the buoy, it does seem to indicate that the low is not deepening as much as predicted during yesterday and is quite a bit further east than those tracks suggested. If this is so and the computer plot backs this up at 1700 then the low may be going to track somewhat further south. A more reliable picture should become available when we get the UK Met 18z Fax chart. If it was only the computer plot then I would be more sceptical but the buoy is normally very reliable.

You might be right John I had a peak at this one. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=62163&meas=pres&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

Further south and east and dropping pretty fast. The others are now rising.

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But doesn't it have to engage with the Jet stream before it powers up?  If the jet stream is buckling right over the UK, then the power up will happen over the UK, the fact that it is further east already, could be because the Jet is more powerful than forecasted.  

 

I have no up to date information on the jet nor indeed the actual position of the surface low so really cannot make comment. If the low is not into the Bristol Channel by 00z then it will show it is tracking further south, if it is then the predictions will have been correct. I will wait until I see the Met O 18z Fax chart before making any assumptions or predictions.

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Check the below link out, then open another tab and load the same page, but alter the time to 18:00 on this one and toggle between the 2 pages. Between 1700 & 1800 the system moves North, not North East or East, North? Was not expecting it to move North, or is it just me?

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102717&size=large〈=en&area=eur

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People don't need to criticise the met office. .

 

 

In need I have put some heavy plants against a fence , if the storm comes it might stop the fence blowing down. If the storm doesn't come the fence wont get blow down. Winner all around.

 

This has been a well forecast storm and if it track 100 miles further north or winds not as strong as predicted lets hope the Met don't get a bashing.

Edited by stewfox
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ECM 12z has the system further south and weaker than the 00z. I think current observations and trends seem to be pointing in that direction. I wouldn't call it a storm to be honest!

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Edited by Bobby
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