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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    Can anyone give me a quick update? Because I've been to work! Has it downgraded/stayed the same/upgraded since this morning about 11? Thanks in advance!

    stayed  the  same

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    Thanks. I will don't worry, if it gets too bad, I'll just view it through the window.

    best to probably park up by the livermead just to be cautious.....quick walk down to the seafront if it's not too choppy....(born and bred in Brix, so know Torquay very well :) )

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 51s

    W COUNTRY CONTD... with potential for short phase 80+ mph especially #Somerset from #Burnham up into #Bristol, N Somerset, #Mendips, #B&NES

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Do not think this is a downgrade.

     

    Lots of people talking about such things but i think that maybe we need to look and compare the actual charts.....

    If we take the NAE latest 12z and the previous 06z and look at something really basic like the mb gradient at 3am we get the following pictures.

    06z low of 976mb and the gradient to the south coast(978) of 2mb.

    12z pushes the LP further north slightly giving a very small centre of 974mb, but 984mb along the southcoast straight down the low again around bouremouth.

    This give is a much bigger 10mb gradient in only a 3hr model run difference.

     

    Such small differences make big changes and this trend could well continue yet.....

     

    Sorry if this has already been posted. :)

    post-6326-0-36777800-1382891850_thumb.gi

    post-6326-0-89907600-1382891857_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire, West Midlands, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Sun
  • Location: Warwickshire, West Midlands, United Kingdom

    I don't know whether to believe the predictions from the Weather Charts, Weather Videos or the Online Weather Forecasts, they all show different predictions for my area tonight into tomorrow and they all got the wind speeds from earlier on today incorrect. They forecasted 18mph winds today and the wind speeds peaked 28mph with gusts reaching 45mph, this however caused very little damage here, however no weather warnings were issued for today. Tomorrow an Amber Wind Warning is in force for my area and all areas to the South and slightly to the North of me, however the Met Office predictions show wind speeds only reaching 25mph here and gusts at 45mph which is quite a rise from the earlier prediction of 18mph winds and 38mph gusts. Although I believe the Flood Warnings will probably be necessary here because the River Avon water levels seem fairly high at the moment.

    Being in Stratford-Upon-Avon we are not actually very well sheltered from wind, however strong winds are rare here. I have added the current forecasting differences below from several weather sites and other sources, only showing the strongest wind predictions and rain predictions.

    NetWeather: 26mph Wind, 53mph Gusts, 5mm Rain

    Met Office: 25mph Wind, 45mph Gusts, Heavy Rain Mainly

    ACCU: 20mph Wind, 45mph Gusts, 20mm Rain

    Zoover: Force 3 Winds

    WeatherOnline: 14mph Winds, 19mph Gusts (!)

    Weather Channel: 19mph Winds, 40mph Gusts

    MetCheck: 15mph Winds, 30mph Gusts

    XC: 15mph Winds, 32mph Gusts

    BBC Weather Video: 80mph Gusts

    NONE of these are accurate!

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    Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

    Can we please be sensible alot of information will be coming in over the next 12 hours or so.

     

    For those that wish to moan. Netweather have provided you with a whole thread where you can moan to your hearts content

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The NAE is pretty much the extreme solution at the moment with all other models showing the storm leaving the country with a central pressure between about 975mb and 978mb, compared to the 972mb of the NAE which has the strongest winds, especially for East Anglia.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    At such short time range, the best course of action is to use the high-res NAE and NMM models rather than the GFS. Neither of these show much of a "downgrade".

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 21s

    W COUNTRY CONTD So hopefully a rather short-lived phase of highest risk circa 03-06GMT but very dangerous crosswind M5 jcns 20-23 especially

     

    Personally I think a red warning will be issued by the met office tonight around the whole coast of Southern England.

    Edited by interestingweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    If we get lucky, Downing Street might be sucked into a twister. fingers cross.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    best to probably park up by the livermead just to be cautious.....quick walk down to the seafront if it's not too choppy....(born and bred in Brix, so know Torquay very well :) )

    Good advice, not to sure about the walking, think it might be safer in the van. Going to play it by ear, if it looks to nasty out there might just give it a miss.
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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    Good luck all, stay safe, stay sensible, see you the other side of the storm Posted Image

    Why? Where you going? Other side of the channel? :-D Hope you got your passport in your pocket ready for your very bumpy landing!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    GFS 12z charts have the low due south of the SW tip of Ireland at 990mb at 6pm

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    Remember the GFS is a global model and isn't designed for short term, inter regional detail. I may be wrong but I doubt the GFS takes into account tropographic and local environmental nuances when calculating windspeeds to a specific, small scale region.

    Much better sticking to high res modelling now such as the NAE and NMM and also flirting for information from UKV, EURO4 and ARPEGE etc.

    Even better of course is to watch satellite imagery and see how things develop live. Posted Image

     

     

    Regarding the latest GFS - I think some need to read the above by AWD, as it has been repeated by him as well as other posters several times at least.

     

    It makes me wonder if people read much at all on here? Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

    I really can't see what you find silly about urging people to have torches and radios ready, It really doesn't take a lot to bring down trees in the kind of winds forecast and downed trees frequently means downed power line also. Better be prepared than stumble to the loo in the dark in the middle of the night like I did in '87. Feeling blind isn't fun and there wont be street-lights shining in the windows if it happens.

    Edited by coldfingers
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    Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex

    I would love to be able to get to Southend tonight, tide times show a high tide at 5am, which is pretty much perfect!

     

    I can get up there easy as c2c are still running, trouble is getting back!

     

    Part of the rail line at Chawkwell is say 5-10 meters from the sea wall, I can't see c2c operating between Benfleet & Southend tomorrow morning Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Isn't the NAE one of the models the MetO trust the most? People should be careful what they wish for anyway, wonder if those on here saying its a downgrade will be happy if it 'upgrades' and the roof of their house gets damaged or a tree uproots and destroys your car? Stay safe guys, I do love the extremes weather throws up, just please people do not do anything stupid to endanger yourself and/or others.

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    I would love to be able to get to Southend tonight, tide times show a high tide at 5am, which is pretty much perfect!

     

    I can get up there easy as c2c are still running, trouble is getting back!

     

    Part of the rail line at Chawkwell is say 5-10 meters from the sea wall, I can't see c2c operating between Benfleet & Southend tomorrow morning Posted Image

    Get a kite, you can fly home:)
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    Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

    Taken from Brighton Argus.

    http://www.theargus....ath_of_St_Jude/

     

    Helen Chivers, forecaster for the Met Office, said the worst of the storm would hit at around 5am.

    She added: “First we will get the torrential rain. That should be around 9pm and it will continue until midnight.

    “Then at about 4am to 5am you will get the strong gusts.

    “They will be in the region of 70 mph to 80mph and in some more exposed areas up to 85mph to 90mph.

    “They will start to die down around 11am and the speeds should fall off fairly rapidly after that.â€

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    I'm not sure if this has been posted, but between 1500 and 1600, observations show K1 dropped from 995.1mb to 991.9mb - a pressure drop of 3.2mb in an hour. It seems that Jude is still on track and intensifying fast.

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/observations/K1_table.html

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    just gonna have to watch and wait on this time, it is still shown to deepen as it crosses the Uk , But doesn't seem to want to complete the development until it reaches Norway. To be honest on Satellite it is hard to see at the moment , and on GFS looks more like it has an open circulation , and really just merging with the other low to it's North. I have a feeling it won't have the impacts of a mega storm like the papers are all saying, And using the word hurricane strength winds is just worrying people for nothing .. In reality were not even likely to get tropical storm force sustained winds  ... I expect inland were looking at 25-30 mph gusting 40-50mph , on Southern Coasts and the Bristol Channel gusting 50-70 mph. 

    lol, bet the Americans are laughing there socks off

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    Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex

    I really can't see what you find silly about urging people to have torches and radios ready, It really doesn't take a lot to bring down trees in the kind of winds forecast and downed trees frequently means downed power line also. Better be prepared than stumble to the loo in the dark in the middle of the night like I did in '87. Feeling blind isn't fun and there wont be street-lights shining in the windows if it happens.

    No street lights in my road now anyway, they get turned off a midnight. Which is lovely for the star gazing, won't be for the snow lamp post watch though.

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