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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey

    Looks like i'll struggle to get into work tomorrow(south west Trains) due to reduced service etc....surely they are basing these cancellations on guidance from the Met Office etc.....if things have downgraded(which they look like they have) cancellations etc seem a bit OTT.

     

    http://www.southwesttrains.co.uk/alerts.aspx#1807D9E5C7196047E6E86CED08CA6BF4

    Edited by Cableguy
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    Posted
  • Location: approx 3mls from coast Liverpool North West England & Andalusia
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme weather conditions
  • Location: approx 3mls from coast Liverpool North West England & Andalusia

    Just come home, heard on car radio traffic reports, trees down in various parts of country, Sheppey bridge closed (not sure where that is?)

    Certainly very windy here and that's before any 'storm' comes.

    Turned on my computer to see headline David Cameron is attending emergency meeting re pending hurricane force storm, have I missed something

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    Tony Gilbert of UKWW has issued his convective outlook for tonight into monday

     

     

    Moderate Risk of Severe Convective/ Non Convective Gusts UK and Ireland 18z Sun-18z MonSlight/ Moderate Risk of Supercell / Tornado Development 00z Cornwall through to Kents/ Essex 06zModerate Risk of Isolated Thundery Showers 09z-18zA complex outlook regarding isolating what will happen when and where. The whole outlook is transitional with one type of risk overlaying the next. The primary risk will be associated with the likelihood of strong storm gusts. In fact the strongest gust are likely to be non convective and will occur in southern counties within the very early hrs. Real concerns here for structural damage and the biggest risk is with falling trees which are currently holding full foliage with wet roots.All in all the outlook begins primarily non convective but rapidly develops into a fully convective regime based on strong potential instability, exceptional speed shear combined with strong dynamic lift. The CAPE's are lean but this is of no consequence as the risk will be based on a low instability/ high shear scenario. This risk period will be between 00z-06z specifically!Long wave upper trough moves slowly eastward increasing lapse rates behind the surface low. The surface low is the key here; in fact the low pressure develops rapid cyclogenesis as it enters the UK. Further more the occlusion wraps in tightly behind creating a 'Sting Jet' scenario. So in short the winds will be two fold; The overnight cold front is likely to be replaced by very strong winds by late morning as cooled air aloft is brought around and downward once again.Any association with tornado development Iooks primarily within the initial cold front where 0-3km helicity values are strongest. This is identified within the red box. ATM I cannot rule out a further risk of tornadoes later Monday associated with post frontal troughing and stronger instability. Though winds currently look straight lined at all levels ATM.A fairly serious outlook which requires all our members to note very carefully and make provisions for possible delays travelling to work during Mon morning. I think many of us will be losing our garden fences overnight!

    post-18097-0-78914900-1382890849_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    Just come home, heard on car radio traffic reports, trees down in various parts of country, Sheppey bridge closed (not sure where that is?)Certainly very windy here and that's before any 'storm' comes.Turned on my computer to see headline David Cameron is attending emergency meeting re pending hurricane force storm, have I missed something

    Yes a meeting to sort out plans and safety measures when the storm hits/ misses depending on the track of it.
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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

    Me too, am in Torquay, Devon, so I guess it should get a bit lively latter. Going to get in the van and park on the seafront, high tide at midnight, would be nice to see some big waves crashing over the wall.

    don't think the local council will allow you near

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    Posted
  • Location: Petworth West Sussex - Selsey West Sussex - South Norwood Greater London
  • Location: Petworth West Sussex - Selsey West Sussex - South Norwood Greater London

    Just come home, heard on car radio traffic reports, trees down in various parts of country, Sheppey bridge closed (not sure where that is?)

    Certainly very windy here and that's before any 'storm' comes.

    Turned on my computer to see headline David Cameron is attending emergency meeting re pending hurricane force storm, have I missed something

    Isle of sheppey in kent where the multi vehicle pile up happened due to fog.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

    Me too, am in Torquay, Devon, so I guess it should get a bit lively latter. Going to get in the van and park on the seafront, high tide at midnight, would be nice to see some big waves crashing over the wall.

    .... And then sweeping you out to sea . Very sensible. Some poor fireman or coast guard then has to risk his life for saving yours. Stay inside!
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Some very strong PVA across a wide area, you can see why the rain will be heavy, expect it to pep up as it makes inroads later this evening.post-15177-0-55199300-1382890974_thumb.g post-15177-0-40387400-1382891008_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    .... And then sweeping you out to sea . Very sensible. Some poor fireman or coast guard then has to risk his life for saving yours. Stay inside!

    I will be sat in a van, the seafront has a wall, will have to be one hell of a wave to take a van in. Besides it's a neep tide so should not be as bad as it gets in the winter.
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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    What? It's only a bit of wind and rain.

    Depends on your location im having just a bit of wind and rain other people are gonna have a bit more than that.Stay in its safer why would you risk your life and others if you got washed out to sea.. comman sense thats all thats needed. Why not sit under a massive tree ..no thought not. Edited by itsnowjoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    don't think the local council will allow you near

    I'll find somewhere good to park, but yea, they may shut the seafront if it gets bad.
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    Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading

    When are the strongest winds likely to be, stupid question I know but a rough idea would be nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

    I'll find somewhere good to park, but yea, they may shut the seafront if it gets bad.

    you be careful my friend

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    Depends on your location im having just a bit of wind and rain other people are gonna have a bit more than that.Stay in its safer why would you risk your life and others if you got washed out to sea.. comman sense thats all thats needed. Why not sit under a massive tree ..no thought not.

    Not going to get washed out to sea, why do people keep saying that :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Can anyone give me a quick update? Because I've been to work! Has it downgraded/stayed the same/upgraded since this morning about 11? Thanks in advance!

    Edited by dec10snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

    http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

     

    Fishermen obviously not too worried about the incoming storm as their boats are still on the shingle. Perhaps because it is a low (neap) high tide but usually a storm this strong and the boats would be dragged up along the promenade.

    Edited by coldfingers
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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    Not going to get washed out to sea, why do people keep saying that :)

    Probably cos we dont want you to get hurt sir :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

    Portsmouth council have already closed off Southsea seafront this afternoon (yes I know it was closed anyway for Great South Run, but they are keeping it closed).

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 7s

    W COUNTRY UPDATE 1630GMT Rain turning heavy this eve into tonight. Winds pick-up especially into early hours. Between 3-6am gusts 50-70mph..

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    Can anyone give me a quick update? Has it downgraded/stayed the same/upgraded since this morning about 11? Thanks in advance!

     

    So has there been downgrades ?

     

     

    There haven't really been any more downgrades. GFS still doesn't show much of a low, but the Met Office warnings still show the possible impact at the highest, and the likliness being the only thing to stop it going to red. NAE shows more of a developed low than the GFS.

     

    The best thing to do now is nowcast, nothing is set in stone!

     

    Stay safe

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Good luck all, stay safe, stay sensible, see you the other side of the storm :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: northwood
  • Location: northwood

    Can anyone give me a quick update? Has it downgraded/stayed the same/upgraded since this morning about 11? Thanks in advance!

    A couple of the models have moved the worst area south wards ! But I'm sure an upgrade is imminent as it hits land in the next 6 hours ish
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