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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

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 Sunday update

Well not sute what is happening as the chart for 12z Monday ‘appears’ to have an isobar missing, see link below!

The track is almost identical to what has been predicted for several days now. The depth and position for 00z Monday is pretty close to the last 3 or 4 Fax charts, position 51N 7.5W and depth 977mb. The track then is the same as before, Cardigan Bay and out over the coast of Yorkshire, it looks pretty identical to me but currently the central presuure at 12z Monday is hard to work out what it is with what looks like a missing isobar. It May be <972mb (less deep bu 8mb or <968mb less deep by 4mb!

Whatever the latest Fax charts do suggest less deep by that time.

We should know what Met think by lunch time today as they update their warnings. IF it is less deep by 12z Monday then no red alert will be issued and the predicted speeds may drop by 10 mph possibly more.

I have not yet got round to looking at what the model outputs of any of them actually show. Will do so when I get time, well after breakfast!

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t36

 

just this second reading that input from Ian F and that does sound like a downgrade in wind strengths coming up. I may have to give up pretending to be a 'real' forecaster!

 

having a quick scan through GFS and it certainly carries on with its 18z idea, that is less windy, less deep depression and rather further south? 06z will be coming out before too long now we are on Z time.

 

It is beginning to look like some marked changes in wind predictions may be necessary IF the next 24 hours of developments carries on like the last 12-15. The comment from Ian F is perhaps the key to what is going on, that is regarding the surface feature where it is now and the upper jet. Again not had time to look at this so far.

Edited by johnholmes

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06Z NAE slightly further south at 24 hours, otherwise very similar to 0Z.

 

Posted Image

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 Sunday update

Well not sute what is happening as the chart for 12z Monday ‘appears’ to have an isobar missing, see link below!

The track is almost identical to what has been predicted for several days now. The depth and position for 00z Monday is pretty close to the last 3 or 4 Fax charts, position 51N 7.5W and depth 977mb. The track then is the same as before, Cardigan Bay and out over the coast of Yorkshire, it looks pretty identical to me but currently the central presuure at 12z Monday is hard to work out what it is with what looks like a missing isobar. It May be <972mb (less deep bu 8mb or <968mb less deep by 4mb!

Whatever the latest Fax charts do suggest less deep by that time.

We should know what Met think by lunch time today as they update their warnings. IF it is less deep by 12z Monday then no red alert will be issued and the predicted speeds may drop by 10 mph possibly more.

I have not yet got round to looking at what the model outputs of any of them actually show. Will do so when I get time, well after breakfast!

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t36

 

just this second reading that input from Ian F and that does sound like a downgrade in wind strengths coming up. I may have to give up pretending to be a 'real' forecaster!

Not your fault John, the thing might surprise us yet. it's more or less just under 24 hours away, plenty of time for something to happen that would make us all gasp (one way or another),

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Hi folks I'm new just joined this morning, why am I getting the impression reading the latest opinions of this so-called storm approaching that's it's not going to have the sting initially thought?... Looks like a lot of the models are downgrading it, hope it doesn't turn out to be another damp squib like that storm they threatened a few years back. There was quite a nasty squall line earlier this morning, some heavy rain and 40mph+ gusts I'd say, I think the media and the national TV forecasters will have egg on their faces if that's pretty much all it turns out to be a brief squall at best!  :-(

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Netweather NMM hi-res still on course for a very gusty night for many in the South and South-East:

 

post-6667-0-53572400-1382864249_thumb.pn  post-6667-0-13993600-1382864251_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-52031900-1382864247_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

 

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Latest NAE very close to overnight run,maybe the LP a touch deeper?

 

latest..  previous..

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Model wind-speeds do tend to be unrealistic for individual locations.

 

Consider the following,

 

post-5986-0-22961400-1382864030_thumb.gi

 

This shows a 30 knot wind for my location, Bluebell Hill.

 

However, this does not take into account hills and such like. Using a bog-standard log height conversion a 30 knot wind converts into a 49 mph mean wind which is a strong gale (branches off trees, small trees blown over) gusting to possibly 76.44 mph (adjusted for height and roughness length) which is a storm or whole gale (structural damage likely, trees are broken or uprooted)

 

To be honest I could do with a downgrade.

Edited by Sparkicle

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Don't know why people are calling it a 'downgrade'. As was said earlier, they are still warning of at least 60mph gusts widely, that's enough to cause some damage, but equally, it's still enough to get our share of some interesting weather! :D

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Matt on BBCnews just said he's just had meeting with Chief Forecaster and no change from 24hrs ago with track of storm.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Matt on BBCnews just said he's just had meeting with Chief Forecaster and no change from 24hrs ago with track of storm.

 

If the forecast continues to verify like this, this is massive boon to the super-computers and their human colleagues down there in Exeter!

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Latest NAE very close to overnight run,maybe the LP a touch deeper?

 

latest..Posted Image13102806_2706.gif  previous..Posted Image13102806_2700.gif

Well to my untrained eye, that still looks like it's going to cause chaos in London and the South East. 

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I do sort of hope we get it, if only so we don't all end up with eggs on our faces. You cannot tell me that you've not excitedly told at least one person about the details of the storm as we know them?

 

On the other hand, it's going to cause misery to alot of people :-(

 

Not many other hobbies have this much drama and politics do they? lol.

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WOW massive downgrade by GFS everything shoved much further south. Only the southern most regions seeing anything stormy and most of that in the channel.

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Well to my untrained eye, that still looks like it's going to cause chaos in London and the South East. 

I agree looks chaotic for London and the home counties especially when the centre appears to cross The Wash out into the north sea with some very tight isorbars south of the centre a central pressure of 972mb is seriously worrying!  Posted Image And it's still main headline news, just been all over the Andrew Marr Show; St'Jude is coming!

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What might have changed, is that out at day 5 and 4 there was still the potential of 100mph gusts in the forecasts (the hurricane force bit bandied about)

Now, closer in, that high end is lower prob. 

 

But we are still left with a storm bringing likely 80mph gusts to south coast, maybe in exposure, more

That is not a usual autumn storm

 

The effects of those gusts before/on Monday morning will still affect many people and so the warnings are still valid

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WOW massive downgrade by GFS everything shoved much further south. Only the southern most regions seeing anything stormy and most of that in the channel.

We haven't got the 06Z yet?

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oh well -least I'll only have to tie the cardboard down not the whole skip (!!) like most yesterday were suggesting lol

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But we are still left with a storm bringing likely 80mph gusts to south coast, maybe in exposure, more

That is not a usual autumn storm

 

Unfortunately, that seems about right Jo:

 

post-6667-0-15231300-1382865126_thumb.jp

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if that metoffice output is right Coast - sub 60mph gusts for most away from coasts is hardly even a decent autumn storm ?

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Matt on BBCnews just said he's just had meeting with Chief Forecaster and no change from 24hrs ago with track of storm.

 

Which leaves us here. Issued 0100z.

post-12275-0-35431600-1382865498_thumb.g

post-12275-0-94656500-1382865516_thumb.g

Edited by knocker

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?? that sounds brave forecast - no change from 24 hours ago - I find that hard to believe - so they are saying they're not buying the 18z or 0z models ??

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Unfortunately, that seems about right Jo:

Definate downgrade on that chat las night they were showing 76mph gust for my area.

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More certainty appears to be showing that my area will miss out on this. My prediction is that the Met Office will keep the Amber Warning for wind but maybe restrict the zone further south of current warnings, to remove the northern 50 miles or so. I do not think a red warning will be issued. Yellow warning for rain will also still stand.

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Hi folks I'm new just joined this morning, why am I getting the impression reading the latest opinions of this so-called storm approaching that's it's not going to have the sting initially thought?... Looks like a lot of the models are downgrading it, hope it doesn't turn out to be another damp squib like that storm they threatened a few years back. There was quite a nasty squall line earlier this morning, some heavy rain and 40mph+ gusts I'd say, I think the media and the national TV forecasters will have egg on their faces if that's pretty much all it turns out to be a brief squall at best!  :-(

Hi Adam,

Welcome to NWPosted Image Could you please pop where you live in the UK into your profile or signature. Thank youPosted Image

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