Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[toggerob]

The rain will be hanging around for some time until the low moves on through, sodden ground and high winds aren't a good combination at any time. 

[joanna1971]

Very windy here this morning, went for walk on hill , already trees down. This might sound daft but I've always found my water in the toilet bowl is always a lot less when there's a deep low around, has anybody else noticed this??? Sorry if it's off topic

[windseeker]

Perhaps you could post some charts to back this up? I'm looking at the NMM and although it is a brief event, with widespread 60-70mph, you don't need it to be around for long to cause significant disruption. Particularly as trees are still in full leaf pretty much.

Models as of Friday - windspread means of 40 to 50mph right across south - justifiable warning if this happened. Huge gusts as below:-

 

 

 

Lastest runs 36-40means along coast only, 20 inland. This is not too much different from now.

Yes I love a storm but get serious guys it is no longer happening...

Edited October 27, 2013 by windseeker

[jessandjon]

What does pressure of 1000 and rising mean

[Summer Sun]

First pictures of the damaged caused by falling trees are emerging

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24690552

[Evening thunder]

Anyway It's quite windy here at times as it is in many places,leaves blowing off the trees and around the place. Not especially windy at home in east Devon but then WSW winds rarely do much there for some reason.

 

Whatever happens, it will be interesting watching tonight 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Paul
Original post now removed

[Paul]

Models as of Friday - windspread means of 40 to 50mph right across south - justifiable warning if this happened

 

 

 

Lastest runs 36-40means along coast only, 20 inland. This is not too much different from now.

Yes I love a storm but get serious guys it is no longer happening...

 

 

You're comparing apples and pears there, the top one is gusts, the bottom is the mean speed. The current gust map from the GFS for the same time is quite different:

 

 

And bear in mind that the GFS isn't a high-resolution short range model, these show higher gusts locally during the evening, overnight and into the early hours.

[cheese]

Models as of Friday - windspread means of 40 to 50mph right across south - justifiable warning if this happened

 

 

 

Lastest runs 36-40means along coast only, 20 inland. This is not too much different from now.

Yes I love a storm but get serious guys it is no longer happening...

Don't take those charts as a gospel - rarely do they show strong winds inland, but from experience, living 60-odd miles from either coastline, gusts in excess of 60mph certainly occur inland, and here, they occur most years. We're in a vale mind you, and wind can occasionally slope down the Pennines, accelerating as it does so, but still - don't take them at face value.

Edited October 27, 2013 by cheese

[teeno]

I have been tracking the wind in the solent by the Isle of Wight it has been steadily getting stronger now up to F9. I find this is a very usefull link its a navigation bouy.

 

http://www.bramblemet.co.uk

[mezzacyclone]

NDBC displaying buoy 62029 just under 300 miles W of the scilly Isles (or Isles of scilly pedantically speaking ) gives pressure lowering rapidly now with a 2mb fall in between the 1pm & 2pm reading currently @ 998mb.

Sevenstones lightship buoy lies 300 mile ENE roughly between IOS & mainland Cornwall so we could monitor this buoy to determine the wind direction and plot the path?

Anyone have a link providing the latest jet stream pattern for oscillations and upper level divergence?

[Evening thunder]

Models as of Friday - windspread means of 40 to 50mph right across south - justifiable warning if this happened

 

 

 

Lastest runs 36-40means along coast only, 20 inland. This is not too much different from now.

Yes I love a storm but get serious guys it is no longer happening...

 

Not sure if you've realised but the top chart is showing wind gusts but the bottom chart is showing average wind speed so it will look a lot less intense. If you compare the same chart type they will look more similar.

 

Edit: Paul beat me to it!

Edited October 27, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Mapantz]

Models as of Friday - windspread means of 40 to 50mph right across south - justifiable warning if this happened

 

 

 

Lastest runs 36-40means along coast only, 20 inland. This is not too much different from now.

Yes I love a storm but get serious guys it is no longer happening...

 

You've posted a gust chart and a wind speed chart to compare, how does that work? - There is still the threat of 80mph gusts along the coasts with 60mph inland, it's still looking nasty. We've already seen posts regarding trees coming down and power outages and that's with lower wind speeds than what is to come.

haha - beaten to it twice!  

I can see exactly why there's a flooding threat, leaves are falling off left right and center now, drains will block very easily.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Mapantz

[pip22]

breaking news: Southern Trains will not run until the storm has passed. The news just in on Sky News.

[ChezWeather]

Well by the looks of things, i will be smack in the 'eye of the storm' as it were.

 

No major wind gusts here then.. just the risk of flooding!? 

[SF-02]

'breaking news: Southern Trains will not run until the storm has passed. The news just in on Sky News.'

 

 

That's not a sign of the weather definitely being awful though. If they run and anything happens their stats look bad and are liable to pay outs. cancel or run an emergency timetable and they don't. 

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by SF-02

[windseeker]

You've posted a gust chart and a wind speed chart to compare, how does that work? - There is still the threat of 80mph gusts along the coasts with 60mph inland, it's still looking nasty. We've already seen posts regarding trees coming down and power outages and that's with lower wind speeds than what is to come.

haha - beaten to it twice!  

I can see exactly why there's a flooding threat, leaves are falling off left right and center now, drains will block very easily.

 

I have since updated my post, with current solent readings. As I say means of 30-35 today gusting 50mph

[stevofunnelcl]

The word 'possible' in the thread title, needs to be pointed out

 

Where i believe a mistake has been made

Too early to say they were confident the storm would severely impact a large part of England & Wales (Yesterday)

The media then picked up on this, and put out articles to suggest a hurricane strength storm would 'definatly' happen

 

I'm sure there will be plenty of post-analysis discussion.

 

The conditions today are more severe than they will be for many tonight.

There has been wind damage today

 

I think this low will deepen further after leaving the Uk, and will be a bigger story for our neighbours in Europe

[Summer Sun]

Latest statement from south west trains

 

South West Trains passengers have been told not to travel on Monday with most services not running until at least 08:00 GMT. A reduced timetable will be in operation while trains will be limited to 50mph in high winds, leading to extended journey times. Southern and Gatwick Express services will not run until it is declared safe as tracks may have to be cleared. First Great Western has also warned of extended travelling times.

 

Southeastern Trains said if the storm was as disruptive as predicted, it was likely to run services later than usual. All operators advised customers to check their websites and Twitter feeds for the latest information. A spokesman for South West Trains said: "Our advice to passengers is very clear; don't travel unless it is absolutely necessary. "Like other transport operators, we are continuing to monitor the situation closely and we will put the safety of customers and our staff first."

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24694201

[Dan the Man]

Still on a knife edge this storm - one small tweak in the path of say 100-200 miles either way could swing it either way. If it backs north, a lot more people will see the severe gusts.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

 

7am   low of  975  crossing the middle of the  uk

Edited October 27, 2013 by tinybill

[Bobby]

GFS 12z doesn't make much of the system, a trough with heavy rain

[Matty M]

Latest GFS again showing a much weaker storm than was predicted a few days ago. 

 

I don't think there would of been much fuss about this system if this had been the predicted chart a few days ago.

 

- Still very windy around Channel coasts and north sea coasts when it clears.

 

Some exposed coastal areas could get gusts to 70/80mph, but nothing exceptional for such exposed locations

at this time of year.

 

Inland cant see much evidence to suggest gusts more than 50/60mph at very most for a brief period.

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Matty M

[Mapantz]

I have since updated my post, with current solent readings. As I say means of 30-35 today gusting 50mph

 

Gusts at 4pm (now-ish)

 

Gusts later;

 

Quite a marked difference don't you think? It may not be as severe as first thought, but they'll be plenty of disruption nonetheless. Of course, there's still time for more upgrades or downgrades. 

[Chess01]

. Computer models are not 100 percent accurate so anything can happen. Just watch how the whole thing unveils and prepare for the worst incase things go bad

[Dancerwithwings]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

 

7am   low of  975  crossing the middle of the  uk

THAT WAS THE 0Z ! The 12z will be out shortly