Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[timeless]

warning times have changed again in the last 15mins, now saying between 3am and 12 for hereford tho the gusts are arent much worse than predicted today..

[Chief Wiggam]

Yarmouth lifeboat just launched according to website locally...

[tight isobar]

To my eye, the lp, peaks intensification on landfall south/ south east, with the eye rearing It's head in and around the wash heeding a back surge.but Howeverto say It's a nowcast situ would be an understatment! And a burn out of sort could also be on the cards here.

[tinybill]

Yarmouth lifeboat just launched according to website locally...

not surprised the storm not here my weather station got winds of 35mph  sustained and im 10 miles  from the  coast!

Edited October 27, 2013 by tinybill

[johnholmes]

Just to set the record straight, on the pdf below is the actual position as shown on a computer generated actual surface chart compared to the Met O Fax chart issued in the early morning of last Thursday.

 

 

strom for monday 28 october-actual v predict 12z sunday 26 oct 13.pdf

 

The position and track of the low and its depth have been consistent on every Fax chart from then onwards so how far out the prediction yesterday for 00z and 12z Monday MAY be we can track quite easily as I have saved all the relevant Fax charts as they were issued.

Edited October 27, 2013 by johnholmes

[Carl]

The Met O udpate remains at just below red for the areas outlined in their update and shown by a couple of posters above. Somehwat less in area for wind problems and it looks like about 10 mph off the top wind speeds quoted. Still a serious potential for damage in the areas they highlight. So a slight decrease in depth of the low thus not as far north as say the 12z Met Fax chart yesterday but heavy rain for some areas as well as the fairly high risk of storm damage in the areas highlighted. 

 

Pretty sure that the Met Office are so risk averse they only issue red warnings immediately (minutes/few hours) before events transpire or during. This is of no use whatsoever.

 

Imagine calling your boss and saying you aren't coming in due to an amber warning - contrast that with a red.

 

Not much use to you when you've arrived in the office.

[Summer Sun]

Here the map of the latest warnings

 

[AWD]

So the amber warnings have increased, not decreased? lol.

Edited October 27, 2013 by AWD

[itsnowjoke]

Quite breezy here atm.

[sn0wman]

Looks to be intensifying slightly faster than forecast by both the GFS and UKMO models. This is the current surface analysis from observations - 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102712&size=small〈=en&area=eur

 

Pressure of 996mb observed; around 2-4 mb more intense than was forecast for 12pm today. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=12&carte=1021

 

I will be doing updates every 3 hours on the pressure of this system versus the model forecast. Not convinced it will only be at 985mb as it crosses the Midlands (as forecast by the GFS).

 

Edit: It has intensified by roughly 2mb in the past hour. If we assume the system will be over the Midlands at around 2am, that gives us approximately 13 hours of intensification and if it keeps intensifying at its current rate, it should be at around 970mb. 

Edited October 27, 2013 by sn0wman

[bobbydog]

Pretty sure that the Met Office are so risk averse they only issue red warnings immediately (minutes/few hours) before events transpire or during. This is of no use whatsoever.

 

Imagine calling your boss and saying you aren't coming in due to an amber warning - contrast that with a red.

 

Not much use to you when you've arrived in the office.

 

well if you managed to arrive safely at the office it couldn't have needed a red warning...

[Carl]

 

Right warnings fully updated so here's what we have now Amber wind warning Wales, West and East Midlands, London and South east, south west England All other areas not listed above have no wind warnings at all with the yellow warnings removed Rain warnings North east and west England, Yorkshire & Humber, West and East Midlands, south west England, Wales And not forgetting the east.All other areas not listed above have no rain warnings

 

 

To be fair, the vast majority of the east (being any county with a eastern coastline) have no warnings.

well if you managed to arrive safely at the office it couldn't have needed a red warning...

 

Quite right, providing it doesn't have a knock-on effect on my transport home or mean i have to leave to collect kids from closing school etc.

[pip22]

I just heard from the BBC that the coastguard says ''The cliff tops will be extremely treacherous''. It is certainly is getting hyper on the media front.

Edited October 27, 2013 by pip22

[beng]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

For what it's worth, the coming depression is currently around 4mb deeper that what had been modeled for this time from the 06z GFS run.  It'll be interesting (perhaps) to check this again around 6pm - where it's meant to be off the SW UK at around 990MB (according to the GFS)

 

Edit - Sn0wman got there first! :-)

Edited October 27, 2013 by beng

[Cloud 10]

Its not exactly as calm as a mill pond out there at the moment is it?

 

 

Gusting between 50-70mph in places.

[Lazz]

well if you managed to arrive safely at the office it couldn't have needed a red warning...

 

Unless he only managed to arrive safely because he missed the falling tree by 5 seconds

[JK1]

So has the storm been downgraded then? Bit confused

[london-snow]

Winds already getting up quite a bit here in sw london.

[johnholmes]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

For what it's worth, the coming depression is currently around 4mb deeper that what had been modeled for this time from the 06z GFS run.  It'll be interesting (perhaps) to check this again around 6pm - where it's meant to be off the SW UK at around 990MB (according to the GFS)

 

Edit - Sn0wman got there first! :-)

 

also doing just that

[The PIT]

Charts from xcweather show most of the country having a quiet start to Monday. If they are correct a lot of people will be questioning the warning system.

[Carl]

I just heard from the BBC that the coastguard says ''The cliff tops will be extremely treacherous''. It is certainly is getting hyper on the media front.

 

I once heard that clifftops were always treacherous...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

For what it's worth, the coming depression is currently around 4mb deeper that what had been modeled for this time from the 06z GFS run.  It'll be interesting (perhaps) to check this again around 6pm - where it's meant to be off the SW UK at around 990MB (according to the GFS)

 

Edit - Sn0wman got there first! :-)

 

Very interesting... she could be starting.. erm.. rapidly deepen..Also note that pressure for now over the uk is slighty lower than forcasted  

[The PIT]

Its not exactly as calm as a mill pond out there at the moment is it?

 

w1382877527.gif

 

Gusting between 50-70mph in places.

Comparing with tomorrows suggestion.

[johnholmes]

Looks to be intensifying slightly faster than forecast by both the GFS and UKMO models. This is the current surface analysis from observations - 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102712&size=small〈=en&area=eur

 

Pressure of 996mb observed; around 2-4 mb more intense than was forecast for 12pm today. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=12&carte=1021

 

I will be doing updates every 3 hours on the pressure of this system versus the model forecast. Not convinced it will only be at 985mb as it crosses the Midlands (as forecast by the GFS).

 

Edit: It has intensified by roughly 2mb in the past hour. If we assume the system will be over the Midlands at around 2am, that gives us approximately 13 hours of intensification and if it keeps intensifying at its current rate, it should be at around 970mb. 

re how much it has deepened and the position

take care as it is a computer generated chart and you are best using it to track the overall movement and depths rather than from hour to hour. At times you may need to make some kind of subjective adjustments to what a particular hour shows.

[pip22]

I once heard that clifftops were always treacherous...

Only if its high enough that is.