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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Posted
  • Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire +19M
  • Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire +19M

This is all been a bit of a storm in a tea-cup if u ask me.

 

You realise the storm hasn't formed as yet? These kind of posts are likely to mislead many of the newer members!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I doubt I'll get any responses to this question, but I'm currently lurking on an unrelated forum (don't really meet membership criteria hence lurking) where the resident amateur meteorologist has logged-off for the evening.  There's a member there whose family are in Denmark, and this member read a reference to the low deepening rapidly in the North Sea and possibly heading that way.  Apparently, she rang her relatives who said they'd heard nothing and essentially told her she was worrying about nothing.  She is assuming that either they've not watched Danish news or a weather forecast this last few days and are being very complacent, or that the Danish forecasters have somehow failed to appreciate that there's a decent chance of this system affecting them later tomorrow.

 

Does anyone have any thoughts (apologies for OT nature of this post)?

 

It certainly looks like being windy but how much I am not sure for a good many areas of Denmark especially the western and northern parts?

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Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London

I wish I could tell where this thing is , It is almost impossible to tell on Infrared images . If it comes in over the Bristol Channel or further South then most of the West country will be in the center of the low and miss the High winds , If it comes in over Wales the whole of the West country will see a period of intense winds. The surface pressure plots are no where near matching the infrared , it is looking more like a weather front than a deepening low on most images. 

 

I don't understand how you can't see it - centre is tracking Pemroke to Grimsby, pending unforeseen deepening. North Somerset should be pretty windy then, no?

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Go on, whats everybodys predictions At this stage[/quote

Okay I'm going to put my neck on the line and say its going to be wet and windy!!! Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Posted Image Posted Image Winds are currently 5mph send help! 

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Posted
  • Location: Landrake, SE Cornwall. 5 miles from Plymouth.
  • Location: Landrake, SE Cornwall. 5 miles from Plymouth.

Wind's really getting up here now along with torrential rain. Pressure dropping like a stone at -3mb/.hr. 987 now. Wind gusting at 56mph.

 

 

http://landrakemotop...ather/index.htm

 

 

 

http://landrakemotop...usRealtime.html  ( You need Microsoft Silverlight installed to see it in real time)

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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

To put it in to context Bristol Metar at 22:50 was 989

 

At midnight the 18z NAE expects between 986 and 984 (lets go for 985)

The GFS expects between 986 and 985

The UK met expected (based on their 12z) about 985

The GME - about 986

The GEM - a shade below 985 perhaps (based on 12z).

 

So if something concerning in terms of cyclogenesis is concerning, we can use model runs to compare to the nowcast.

 

And as the models show, some fair drops in pressure in a shortish space in time are predicted too.

 

So google Bristol Metar, sit and watch, and take a peek at 23:50

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Posted
  • Location: East Grinstead (Nr Gatwick) West Sussex 150m asl
  • Location: East Grinstead (Nr Gatwick) West Sussex 150m asl

Go on, whats everybodys predictions At this stage[/quote

Okay I'm going to put my neck on the line and say its going to be wet and windy!!! Lol

Well you did better than they could do in '87

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Ok it changed my original wording to 'a left trouser legy'???

Yes it did, because you used language that isn't considered acceptable in the forum. There's a filter.
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

885 hPa?

 

Looks like we have a new record low pressure outside of a hurricane!

Posted Image Post edited!

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

You realise the storm hasn't formed as yet? These kind of posts are likely to mislead many of the newer members!

It was meant as a joke actually.... One that u obviously missed? Of course, nobody knows whats going to happen yet, but indications are it isn't going to be as bad as first feared. But only time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: snow/thunderstorms
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight

my pressure has dropped too. im off to bed and hope all stay safe - whatever the weather

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

It certainly looks like being windy but how much I am not sure for a good many areas of Denmark especially the western and northern parts?

 

A whole raft of warnings across W. Europe for tomorrow.

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/1/0/EU-Europe.html

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

 

current readings at Luton Airport:

 

 

Temperature: 11 Â°C Comfort Level: 10 Â°C Dew point: 11 Â°C Pressure: 993 millibars Humidity: 100% Visibility: 6 km Wind: 7 mph from 180° SouthPosted Image

 

 

the TAF is predicting gusts to 60 knots between 05 and 0700 then decreasing

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

St Mary, Scilly has dropped down to 985.5hPa. A decrease of 2.9hPa in the last hour.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3803.html

 

Low HAS formed but hasn't deepened sufficiently yet to cause the high winds, this is expected as it tracks across land. The low is around the south-east of Cork, Ireland.

 

at 2200 I would put it a bit east of there

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

I don't understand how you can't see it - centre is tracking Pemroke to Grimsby, pending unforeseen deepening. North Somerset should be pretty windy then, no?

Sky News and ITV have all there cameras down our seafront and keep saying it is gonna be the worst storm these shores have ever seen , Im gonna try and find a good loop .

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