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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

On the 18z GFS the 300mb wind shows the maximum is again, as it was at 06 and 12z, somewhat lower than the predict yeterday for this time. The centre of the low is in the Bristol Channel and looking like staying under or a touch south of the core of the jet. It is unlikely to get on the cold side. Even so it is deepening not that much off what was predicted. Iy looks to be moving, on the latest Fax, rather more quickly than had been anticipated, perhaps because it is deepening a bit slower overland. Looking to exit around the Humber, a touch south probably, rather than east Yorkshire as per earlier Fax charts and then deepen rather more.

 

Sterling effort John thanks.

 

GFS has this moving through, based on a crude analysis of the 12z NAE and GFS, around 3 hours more quickly than the NAE and as a shallower feature, albeit the NAE went for it being slightly south (though on accuracy and error parameters I would have called the difference insignificant). A Bristol midnight pressure reading will be perfect for comparisons on GFZ, ECM, METO and NAE 12z+12, 18z + 6 (for those 18z producers).

 

As for conditions in Bracknell, rain, warm, wind, 2 of the Beaufort Scale.

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

deleted.

Edited by suffolkboy_
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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

Ok let me rephrase, should we be concerned about these drops in pressure, 

 

Depends what you mean, concerned in the context of what is predicted by the met office, then yes, these will bring conditions similar to what has been predicted by the various models.

 

Concerned that these show something occurring that is beyond the scope of what models have predicted thus far. No.

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

just deleted several posts from members discussing their favourite alcoholic drinks........ bizarre to say the least in this thread discussion!

 

Some people need it when you have 30mph winds causing........errr......destruction? Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Its getting embarrassing now watching the headlines on the news channels its clear this storm is going the way of the dodo

 

It hasn't even formed yet!! Good grief...

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Posted
  • Location: Kettering 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, snow and cloud formations
  • Location: Kettering 80m asl

current readings at Luton Airport:

 

 

Temperature: 11 Â°C Comfort Level: 10 Â°C Dew point: 11 Â°C Pressure: 993 millibars Humidity: 100% Visibility: 6 km Wind: 7 mph from 180° SouthPosted Image

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

just deleted several posts from members discussing their favourite alcoholic drinks........ bizarre to say the least in this thread discussion!

 

if carlsberg did weather forums....... Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Am I mad to think that the East Coast should be most concerned at this point?

 

No, I also thought that the South would grab the worst turns out the winds on the western flank will be strong as it hits the north sea and suddenly drops in pressure.

 

I'm indeed thinking that this could be a surprise to those EA especially the coast.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

See my post from a little while ago. It certainly seems a possibility that the low will continue to intensify as it crosses the North Sea which has the chance of affecting Denmark. I think one of the NW forecasters has also posted something similar on the "Possible Severe Storm Monday" thread.

 

Cheers - as I say, I'm not a member there, but, in the last few minutes, others have posted that the Danish weather service have issued amber warnings.

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

Look forward to you appearing on the "regional" Scotland threads as winter proper picks up with those humdinger N.Atlantic lows barrelling in. Be great to have real input on such a thread, as you expertly doing now for this wee system incoming Posted Image

 

 

Well having just moved from Grampian to SE SCotland and being the STV presenter this week, I'm not really the person you need to point that out to. I am however bothered about tonight's forecast

 

 

Edited by BurntFishTrousers
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I doubt I'll get any responses to this question, but I'm currently lurking on an unrelated forum (don't really meet membership criteria hence lurking) where the resident amateur meteorologist has logged-off for the evening.  There's a member there whose family are in Denmark, and this member read a reference to the low deepening rapidly in the North Sea and possibly heading that way.  Apparently, she rang her relatives who said they'd heard nothing and essentially told her she was worrying about nothing.  She is assuming that either they've not watched Danish news or a weather forecast this last few days and are being very complacent, or that the Danish forecasters have somehow failed to appreciate that there's a decent chance of this system affecting them later tomorrow.

 

Does anyone have any thoughts (apologies for OT nature of this post)?

 

I would say Denmark would indeed be in the firing line for POTENTIALLY more damaging gusts than here in the UK. As the systems exits the jet the gradiant will tighten and I would say they, along with a few other nearby countries and indeed the SE / E of the UK, could be in for some pretty nasty stuff. 1987 revisited though? I don't see it.

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

Cheers - as I say, I'm not a member there, but, in the last few minutes, others have posted that the Danish weather service have issued amber warnings.

 

I got a bit confused and thought I was posting in the regional thread. But I believe it has been mentioned by a few tonight, not just myself.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

I wish I could tell where this thing is , It is almost impossible to tell on Infrared images . If it comes in over the Bristol Channel or further South then most of the West country will be in the center of the low and miss the High winds , If it comes in over Wales the whole of the West country will see a period of intense winds. The surface pressure plots are no where near matching the infrared , it is looking more like a weather front than a deepening low on most images. 

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Cheers - as I say, I'm not a member there, but, in the last few minutes, others have posted that the Danish weather service have issued amber warnings.

 

Yes you are right they have http://www.dmi.dk/en/vejr/tjenester/varsler/

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

just deleted several posts from members discussing their favourite alcoholic drinks........ bizarre to say the least in this thread discussion!

Yeah same here. Members who want to discuss their alcoholic drinks should be heading over to the chat room.I'm sure it's open. !!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

St Mary, Scilly has dropped down to 985.5hPa. A decrease of 2.9hPa in the last hour.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3803.html

 

Low HAS formed but hasn't deepened sufficiently yet to cause the high winds, this is expected as it tracks across land. The low is around the south-east of Cork, Ireland.

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Just had a de-brief..

 

Posted Image

I've always wondered what its like to be in the eye, just the walls of clouds and you can do nothing as it slowly comes over.

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Posted
  • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;

Pressure has dropped to 989.8 and dropping almost minute by minute, heavy rain too but not very windy. Recent max gust of 3.1 mph with a temp of 11.4 C

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

This is all been a bit of a storm in a tea-cup if u ask me.

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