Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[Snowman.]

Wind has dropped significantly here in the last 1/2 hr. Rain is now light after some torrential downpours around an hour ago....is that it?

 

Im in Pencoed, South Wales - my avatar used to show my location. Sorry.

First low has cleared with the Second coming in now.

[Bazray]

The winds should stop the calm before the storm. It's on it's way

[willitbsunny]

It's the lull before the storm. Winds will ease this evening before picking up tonight, but Wales is not currently in the main firing line.

 

Here is the NW warning issued earlier.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=4;sess=4bc5dc045fe08bc95113a61c0d806126

 

Thanks - I appreciate that x

[Snowman.]

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/  <---- Use that as a guide for Rainfall and current status of the storm.

[SkyWarnUK]

The low is now enclosed by a complete isobar according to this: http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large as indicated by the UK Fax earlier too

[karlos1983]

Much better satellite images here:

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Thank Mr Holmes for that intel.

 

That hasn't helped me, I still cant locate the centre?

[DAVID SNOW]

wherever 'here' is M as you do not show your nearest town for some reason?

 

 Neither do you john or anyone else. Trimming to help the servers.

[bryan629]

Anyone able to do a quick scribble on this sat pic to show just where the centre of the low is atm etc. It's a bit messy looking and I can't pick out the centre of the low?

 

I think this is the centre....just developing

[Evening thunder]

So many posts I don't understand on here this evening..

 

Probably shouldn't post the many examples and why I dispair as it will be taking things more off topic and possibly be deleted

 

Instead I'll post that earlier Ian Fergusson, and other sources from the Met Office said things along the lines of The west country and Bristol may well see 50-70mph gusts, possibly 80+mph briefly due to a pressure squeeze on the back edge of the low being picked up by high resolution models but not the global modes like the GFS. Presumably this would then track ENE.

 

He said in the SW thread: 'We're using UKV now as coarser-scale models aren't resolving the mesoscale wind features in the backwash on pressure surge. UKV consistent in past 3 runs. Troubling. More on this in due course for my region especially'

 

Presumably this is why the amber warnings extend further north than I'd have expected from just looking at the GFS wind charts and some other models.

 

On the other hand, the media hype isn't helping things to say the least, and apparently many people outside the risk zone think it's gunna effect them for some reason, presumably due to poor newspaper reports or something.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Stormmad26

[snowmadchrisuk]

Much better satellite images here:

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Thank Mr Holmes for that intel.

Yeah , thanks for that , although I can not see any rotation as of yet .

[Cloud 10]

Anyone able to do a quick scribble on this sat pic to show just where the centre of the low is atm etc. It's a bit messy looking and I can't pick out the centre of the low?

 

 

Pin the tail on the donkey?

 

I'll play!

 

[Robbie Garrett]

At Heathrow Operators have been asked to cancel 20% of flights 0600-1100, 10% 1100-1600 and 5% 1600- midnight. Night jet restrictions have been lifted tonight and tomorrow night.

 

Expecting Gusts to 60mph in the morning.   Rates down to 24 per hour from 45 per hour landing. 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[radiohead]

The low is now enclosed by a complete isobar according to this: http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large as indicated by the UK Fax earlier too

 

The 9pm update will be more accurate, observations are only included every 3 hours, the hours between that are smoothed using model estimates.

[Jax]

NickR, on 27 Oct 2013 - 20:08, said:

It's almost as if you're posting without having bothered to read the countless posts replying to similar "but it's better now than before " posts. Surely no one can be that daft, though? 

 

 

Touchy much? Walks away to find another forum where you won't get your head bitten off for daring to post.....

with so many posts coming in so fast, no one could be keeping up with what has just been put up.

 

So all ahead full steam and post away

[The PIT]

A steady 44 mph average at Buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=62029&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

[jesusfernandez]

gone very calm in the NWest of England

indeed over here we have completely static trees... no wind at all, it doesnt feel like there is anything going on... 

 

Im in runcorn although Im looking at NE from my window so I wont see it coming.

[Paul]

 <---- Use that as a guide for Rainfall and current status of the storm.

 

Lol - why would you use that!

 

No need to go anywhere since you're already on netweather...

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

[ocean]

21 foot wave just recorded on wave bouy 5 miles south of Jersey

[Bazray]

indeed over here we have completely static trees... no wind at all, it doesnt feel like there is anything going on...  Im in runcorn although Im looking at NE from my window so I wont see it coming.

It's not due yet, it does not arrive in the SW till 12ish, so will be later where you are.

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say, this is the most exhilarating thread I have ever encountered on here, pure manic, pure action, I love threads with flow to them but that also include technical expertise, obviously weather wise not as good as heavy disruptive snow, I just hope we have an 'upcoming severe winter weather' thread with this many posts in January or Feb because we will have done good, this storm is going to be quite severe but not an absolute stonker anymore I don't think.

[TrackingfromEssex]

Current observations indicate the lull before winds increase from SSW around 9pm.  Everything still on course for 70mph+ gusting 11/12pm in the channel then moving north eastward to wake me up at around 3pm.

[Roger J Smith]

Would say that southeast is still under the gun but timing and evolution may spare southwest from damaging gusts. In particular IOW to Kent and inland to south London could experience wind damage overnight, in association with possible line squall formation around 0200-0400h. Feel more confident that northern France, Belgium and Holland could see more widespread wind damage. This is not looking like a busted forecast with the sharp pressure falls and earlier gusts to 115 km/hr in Brittany. However it won't be quite as bad as some forecasts had implied. Track will also probably spare most of Midlands from damaging wind gusts, northern half of East Anglia could be grazed later but Essex may still be in play.

 

Will be around all night to watch as my time zone seven hours behind for the week. Key will be rapidly developing cold front around Portland to Cherbourg after midnight. Watch for that and where that heads, wind damage may follow.

[Dan the Man]

Has the MetO site crashed?

[iand61]

indeed over here we have completely static trees... no wind at all, it doesnt feel like there is anything going on...  Im in runcorn although Im looking at NE from my window so I wont see it coming.

The rain should arrive in the south of the NW region in the next couple of hours and give a wet night and Monday morning.The wind may not arrive at all.

[cyclonic happiness]

Ok, now I've sorted it in my mind, here's my doodle :-D

 

The green dot is the centre of where the depression is starting to rotate :-)