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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

The beeb are reporting he was swimming with friends

 

A 14-year-old boy has been swept away by the sea in Sussex, police say.

 

Sussex Police received a call at 16:15 GMT to say the boy, who had been swimming with a friend off West Beach in Newhaven, had been "swept away by the current".

 

A search is under way involving police and the coastguard.

 

Police have warned people to be careful near the coast during the "imminent serious weather conditions".

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-24697520

I know Newhaven well and unfortunately the kids play chicken etc on the breakwater there. It is actually closed to the public but a little too easy for get on. You can't see the waves coming and it is a very dangerous place to be.
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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

Xc maps are based around gfs last run, for near real time, ignore their forecast. Stick to meto highres.

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

according to the beeb NWest will have 50mph winds at times .They are still sticking with the worst for the South.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Although the NMM model is a good hi-res one, it isn't matching up with the UKMO graphic of highest winds tracking along the south.

Just as an example, the center circle gives a timing of 5 to 10am for the strongest winds;

post-15177-0-60254800-1382897467_thumb.j

Here's a few NMM's from 5 to 7am;

post-15177-0-06611700-1382897660_thumb.p post-15177-0-71440900-1382897678_thumb.p post-15177-0-05832100-1382897692_thumb.p

The MetOffice map shows the strongest gusts between 12am and 3am here, which coincides nicely with the NMM. I know there's still discrepancies over timing but that first graphic does make it confusing. Posted Image

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

starting raining..the first part of the KILLER MEGASTORM is here.

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

This buoy useful to monitor. Should be at 981mb at midnight if UKMO 12z is correct. You can monitor it here.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62303&unit=M&tz=STN

Or

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/observations/Turbot_Bank_table.html

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

starting raining..the first part of the KILLER MEGASTORM is here.

 

Thats going over the top...

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Posted
  • Location: Braintree
  • Location: Braintree

Looking at the Atlantic analysis maps the secondary low centre has only dropped 1mb per hour for the last 6 hours still showing centre pressure of 989mb so quite some way of the 975-965mb predicted, unless it undergoes some rapid bombogenesis in the next few hours so not sure there is going to be quite the wind strength predicted earlier!! 

 

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard

Edited by Lenticular
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

So much hype over an ordinary winter "storm". I predict a lot of egg on faces tomorrow. No model is now indicating anything like what has been speculated.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Cranbrook, Kent
  • Location: Near Cranbrook, Kent

I know Newhaven well and unfortunately the kids play chicken etc on the breakwater there. It is actually closed to the public but a little too easy for get on. You can't see the waves coming and it is a very dangerous place to be.

I know Newhaven well, too. You are correct, I have heard from someone on site that it was right next to the breakwater which meant he couldn't be reached when he got into difficulty. Very sad indeed.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

So much hype over an ordinary winter "storm". I predict a lot of egg on faces tomorrow. No model is now indicating anything like what has been speculated.

 

I agree with most of that, but it's not winter, I would say Autumn storm

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

 

NDBC buoy in the Atlantic has pressure and wind speed dropping very quickly nowpressure drop on buoy 62029Map of all buoys in the Atlantic near the UKAltantic buoy's

 

Maybe a malfunction ?, now if we were to get two buoys showing a big drop ?

 

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrowhttp

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFLncfCvPeY

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

The British Airways has just cancelled 21 short-hauled flights.

 

Source: Sky News yet again...

 

There is no doubt going to be chaos by rush hour tomorrow morning.

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Thats going over the top...

He was joking referring to a paper that used those very words ;)
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Hard to believe that in 12 hours time we will be facing some really nasty conditions! Stay safe folks :)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Maybe a malfunction ?, now if we were to get two buoys showing a big drop ?

 

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrowhttp

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFLncfCvPeY

 

no malfunction, simply the low passing the station just south of it, pressure stopped falling, and the wind swung to the north

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

So much hype over an ordinary winter "storm". I predict a lot of egg on faces tomorrow. No model is now indicating anything like what has been speculated.

 

I remember during last winter with the channel low that failed the more experienced in these forums were saying that these tend to downgrade and be moved further south when u get closer to the timeframe and it happened then and it happened again now and last nights 18z GFS then the 0z runs should have been the eye opener that this wasn't going to be what it had been made out to be.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

The NAE and GFS at 6pm:

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

The radar for 6pm below suggest that the storm has arrived earlier than expected with a more northerly track..

post-17320-0-77603400-1382899923_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland

I thought that the rain was always due to arrive around this time, with the stronger winds not to follow until around midnight?

Edited by Darandio
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

no malfunction, simply the low passing the station just south of it, pressure stopped falling, and the wind swung to the north

 

 

I assume you haven't seen the film ?

 

 

 

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